Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

fermi-game.andrewnoble.me

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

1–10 of 39 posts

Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#1

Post by andrewrn »

I always thought it was cool when someone could make a plausible estimate from reasonable guesses. I recently learned that these are sometimes named after Enrico Fermi, the famous physicist, and its the same technique used to create his famous Fermi paradox.

You build a rough logic chain using a few sliders and fixed quantities (e.g. weeks per year), and the goal is to get within an order of magnitude of the true answer. The math is simple; the thinking is the game.

Would love feedback.

Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking
fermi-game.andrewnoble.me

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#3

Post by andrewrn »

jy14898 wrote: post #2

Some feedback: 1. Why are factors reorderable? axb = bxa 2. Why are factors pickable? Is it coincidence that all of todays choices are useful (or did I mess it up) 3. The ranges/sliders ruin it for me IMO, they pick the order of magnitude for you

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback.

The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning.

You think the sliders ought to be a wider range?

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#4

Post by jy14898 »

andrewrn wrote: post #3
jy14898 wrote: post #2

Some feedback: 1. Why are factors reorderable? axb = bxa 2. Why are factors pickable? Is it coincidence that all of todays choices are useful (or did I mess it up) 3. The ranges/sliders ruin it for me IMO, they pick the order of magnitude for you

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback. The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning. You think the sliders o…

> You think the sliders ought to be a wider range?

Perhaps, or just no sliders (or something else). To illustrate, setting all the sliders to the min gets the correct order of magnitude, setting all the sliders to the middle gets the correct answer, and max is only off by 1 order.

Maybe the slider just picking the order of magnitude would make it more fun (1e-9 to 1e9 for example, 20 ish steps), not sure. Perhaps the rough range of magnitudes could be a hint provided if the user has no idea?

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#5

Post by BoiledCabbage »

andrewrn wrote: post #3
jy14898 wrote: post #2

Some feedback: 1. Why are factors reorderable? axb = bxa 2. Why are factors pickable? Is it coincidence that all of todays choices are useful (or did I mess it up) 3. The ranges/sliders ruin it for me IMO, they pick the order of magnitude for you

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback. The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning. You think the sliders o…

Some more feedback

> Fermi Game is a brain teaser that challenges your ability to make real-world (if outlandish) estimates using reasonable assumptions and mathematical reasoning.

What assumptions am I making? All the assumptions have all been made for me? What mathematical training am I doing? What's the point of the separate formulas if they are all present and to be used? How is this order of magnitude thinking if all of the orders of magnitude have been already been determined? It kinda feels like "Hey do you like chess? Come play checkers with chess pieces."

> You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback.

I've got no problem if someone has put a bunch of effort in and made a game and wants feedback. But this feels like asking people to come up with your game for you. It feels you kinda you don't see it as a game either yet.

That said, it's always hard to ship things so congrats on shipping something. It's an interesting idea, but spend a bit of time figuring out the game. Good luck with it!

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#6

Post by mNovak »

It looks very nice visually, but I think the input sliders are way too narrow. Point in fact, in this example they have roughly a 2:1 range, which means virtually any combination of inputs 'wins' the game (is within 1 order of magnitude). That's not particularly fun, is it.

Personally, I approach Fermi estimates as order of magnitude guesses for each factor (e.g. if guessing how many ping pong balls fit in a 747, you might say, "well the width of the jet is closer to 10ft than 100ft", rather than guess 22ft), so having such fine-grained sliders feels like it misses the point.

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#7

Post by tetha »

andrewrn wrote: post #3
jy14898 wrote: post #2

Some feedback: 1. Why are factors reorderable? axb = bxa 2. Why are factors pickable? Is it coincidence that all of todays choices are useful (or did I mess it up) 3. The ranges/sliders ruin it for me IMO, they pick the order of magnitude for you

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback. The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning. You think the sliders o…

> You think the sliders ought to be a wider range?

With this presentation, I'd think so.

Like, your presentation says this is an "order of magnitude estimation". However, the slider of "85 - 125 people on a plane" locks me into ~100 people on a plane, ~100k flights, and the hours is a bit weird. However, if I just put that in, I get 200k - 1M people no matter what hours I choose, and about 500k if I choose 1 hour. As an order of magnitude, that's correct and not bad.

Maybe something bigger & coarser could be interesting - high 100s, low 1000s, high 1000s and so on. We use that kind of magnitude estimation at work quite a bit.

It'd also be interesting to see a highlight where you estimated very incorrectly. I'm not certain if I had guessed 100k+ flights / day.

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#8

Post by beeftime »

Why do I have to pick the factors first? Do I have to use all of them? Why shouldn't I use all of them? If I do, why aren't they already picked?

Why are all of these sliders? Why don't they start at zero? Why do all of them at the default setting result in me winning?

Speaking of, am I winning? Failure and success give me the same feedback. I can play this game over and over until I win? That's not really in the Wordle style.

imo you should be picking from a palette of maybe-relevant factors and increasing/decreasing their order of magnitude and order/operation, then when you submit you're locked into a win/loss state like wordle. This would be much more of a game than what you've got here.

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#9

Post by andrewrn »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #5
andrewrn wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback. The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning. You think the sliders o…

Some more feedback > Fermi Game is a brain teaser that challenges your ability to make real-world (if outlandish) estimates using reasonable assumptions and mathematical reasoning. What assumptions am I making? All the assumptions have all been made for me? What mathematical training am I doing? What's the point of the separate formulas if they are all present and to be used? How is this order of magnitude thinking i…

Hey, I appreciate the thoughts.

Yeah these are things I considered. As a person I have a nasty habit of over-optimizing super hard and never shipping because I am paralyzed by all the considerations. So I forced myself to ship it and face the music. If I end up working on it more, making it a more pure estimation experience is the first thing that I'll do. I also maybe mis-titled calling it "order of magnitude" here. Its more just general estimation.

Thanks again.

Re: Show HN: Fermi – A Wordle-style game for order-of-magnitude thinking

#10

Post by andrewrn »

tetha wrote: post #7
andrewrn wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appreciate all that. You're right about all of these, they're mostly there because I just wanted to get out the door and get feedback. The reorderability/pickability is a remnant from when there were multiple operations (+-*/), but I figured it still allows the user to build the reasoning. Mathematically it doesn't matter as you said, but there is an intuitive order for the chain of reasoning. You think the sliders o…

> You think the sliders ought to be a wider range? With this presentation, I'd think so. Like, your presentation says this is an "order of magnitude estimation". However, the slider of "85 - 125 people on a plane" locks me into ~100 people on a plane, ~100k flights, and the hours is a bit weird. However, if I just put that in, I get 200k - 1M people no matter what hours I choose, and about 500k if I choose 1 hour. As…

Awesome, I greatly appreciate the input!!
Post reply on HN