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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#141

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

caycep wrote: post #139
DebtDeflation wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The factories of today are nothing like the 1980s factories this administration thinks they are going to bring back. Go to FRED or any other economic data site and plot manufacturing output and manufacturing employment on the same chart. The US manufactures more today than we ever have in history and it grows every year. Meanwhile, manufacturing employment is around its all time low and declines every year.

"manufacturing as a service", however that may look, might be more of a fit for the modern economy...unless we really regress back to 1930

MaaS is definitely a thing and has been for a long time. Contract manufacturers abound in the US.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#142

Post by jmward01 »

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is an argument for what the right balance is, and likely a good argument that at lest some minor capability should exist so we can keep re-assessing the value of that industry, but the notion that we should have it all in-house will just limit us to much more primitive tech since we can't gain the benefit of world wide innovation and build off of that.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#143

Post by histriosum »

didericis wrote: post #114
jajko wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's... not how things will roll out. Sure it looks nice on some paper diagram my 5 year old son could pop out, but reality is way, way more complex. Also, here its US who is doing massive 'violations of international order'. You know which order I talk about? WTO for example, US is founding member, an org specifically designed and accepted to handle this. Various international agreements between close allies. And…

The USA already dictates the direction of much of the world economy through its position in the WTO, and you are correct that the tariffs will cause more independent production. That’s part of the intention. Europe specifically is underproductive and the hope is that these tariffs and the change of tone for defense agreements will bolster Europes domestic industrial and defensive capabilities. I also realize how incr…

Let me get this straight…

> That’s part of the intention. Europe specifically is underproductive and the hope is that these tariffs and the change of tone for defense agreements will bolster Europes domestic industrial and defensive capabilities

So, rather than sell Europe weapons that we create in the United States, part of the “intention” of this policy is to cut off the European demand for our weapons systems and cause them to manufacture their own? How is that helpful to the United States and our bottom line? How is that at all in the US interests?

I agree that’s what is going to happen, but I see no evidence that it was part of the intention.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#144

Post by slicktux »

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

That is a pretty hyperbolic paragraph only to imply that we as a nation would loose out on innovation by doing so; nowhere do we want to isolate as a country. Look at all the jobless Americans in once thriving industrial cities. Generations left without pensions or skills all because we outsource our workers to other countries. That’s one of the many problems that need to be solved and by manufacturing here in the USA it may help resolve or alleviate that problem.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#145

Post by gaze »

I don't think the MAGA crowd is prepared for the quality of goods produced by a country at the early stages of relearning manufacturing. American made, for at least 5 years, will be synonymous with poor quality, just has made in ___ has been synonymous with poor quality for any country at the early stages of industrialization.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#146

Post by slicktux »

ryandrake wrote: post #15
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

I know laborers that make well above most “software monkeys” and don’t even get me started with how much heavy machine operators make!

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#147

Post by killingtime74 »

slicktux wrote: post #144
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

That is a pretty hyperbolic paragraph only to imply that we as a nation would loose out on innovation by doing so; nowhere do we want to isolate as a country. Look at all the jobless Americans in once thriving industrial cities. Generations left without pensions or skills all because we outsource our workers to other countries. That’s one of the many problems that need to be solved and by manufacturing here in the US…

It may or may not but the cost is definitely huge and it's already arrived. Would you build a new factory, spend a huge amount of effort marketing, hire workers, incur large debts, if you knew that in three and a half years the presidency may change and it would not be competitive again.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#148

Post by digital_sawzall »

slicktux wrote: post #146
ryandrake wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

I know laborers that make well above most “software monkeys” and don’t even get me started with how much heavy machine operators make!

> don’t even get me started with how much heavy machine operators make!

$40 an hour in Austin Tx, a city with construction going on in every corner.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#149

Post by wil421 »

ryandrake wrote: post #15
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

No you wouldn’t. The trades will take your body. I work with field techs who are close to 50 and they tell me their bodies are not going to make it past 50 and not even close to retirement age.

Office work is so easy on the body compared to almost any job.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#150

Post by XorNot »

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

It's also just practically not possible: the distribution of resources is that it is, and for the expense of conquering and securing an expansive empire to get them, strategic alliances and diplomacy will be cheaper (not to mention that just because something is within your empire, it hardly means you necessarily exert any real sovereignty or control over it - the conquered peoples will hardly feel like citizens).
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