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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#101

Post by absolutelastone »

ty6853 wrote: post #41
ryandrake wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

The economic picture of what will happen is instead of being an American engineer designing widgets made in China, some fraction of you are now decimated to be an American widget maker of items engineered in China. Tarriff is essentially just a handicap to comparitive advantage in trade, trading out jobs where you had the advantage. It is one of the most baffling thing I have seen our government do in our lifetime.

I don't know that the prior situation was sustainable and would have lasted much longer anyway. Using China for manufacturing is like using Amazon for sales. You are required to give them everything they need to take your business away.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#102

Post by drewcoo »

InfiniteTitan wrote: post #100
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

This whole line of reasoning is so similar to consumers picking up chicken breast in a grocery store and not realizing that it comes from chickens somehow. The US manufacturing base is extremely broad, deep, and strong. The onus is on you to try to prove otherwise.

> The onus is on you to try to prove otherwise.

You each made claims. You each have onus for them because you made the claims, not because someone says you do. That's how the burden of proof works.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#103

Post by yojo »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #76
yojo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech is the obvious one, but there are lots of less obvious ones, like designing the things that are manufactured elsewhere. It turns out production of most goods is commoditized and a race to the bottom (assuming free trade), so if you want margins that can support high salaries, you have to move up the value chain (read: services). If we keep tariffs high enough for long enough, we will bring back manufacturing job…

>It turns out production of most goods is commoditized and a race to the bottom (assuming free trade), so if you want margins that can support high salaries, you have to move up the value chain (read: services). I know, right? When you go home and sit down on your Oracle database to relax, then go to the kitchen to cook your evening meal in an AWS Lambda, then afterwards relax a little more by changing into some spre…

To be clear, I’m not saying your or anyone else’s life is “nice.” I’m saying that however nice (or not) your life currently is, it will be worse. Those goods at Walmart will cost 30% more and still be equally threadbare. You’re mixing two things together, the declining quality of goods, and the places those goods are made.

Did you know you can buy premium clothes made in China? You can. Check out producers like Bob Dong or Bronson. Ironically, they make a lot of thick, quality clothes inspired by vintage US work-wear. The reason you probably never heard of them is buyers have to pay extra for that quality, and the appetite isn’t there.

The fact that everything you buy is cheaply constructed of cheap materials is entirely due to that being what sells. Most consumers won’t pay a premium for quality, so you have to go out of your way to look for it. Moving mass-market garment manufacturing back to America won’t change that.

If you just want to pay fistfuls of dollars for quality American-made clothing, you can do that today. Go buy yourself a $70 t-shirt from Lady in White. I’m sure we’ll be able to make shittier clothing cheaper, but it’s still going to be a lot more than shoppers are used to paying. You’re never going to get any American-made shirt for $4.98.

As to why tariffs constitute withdrawing: other countries can and will retaliate. China is not going to buy our expensive American-made commodity products, especially when they’ve got a 55% import duty on them, when they can buy equal or better quality things made at home or in SE Asia for half the price.

Even if successful, tariffs will make goods expensive. There’s no way around that. There is 0 reason to believe they will make goods any better. With reduced competitive pressure, quality is more likely to drop, if anything.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#104

Post by markus_zhang »

germinalphrase wrote: post #94
markus_zhang wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO if Trump is serious about bringing manufacturing back to US, his No.1 job is to remove all middle-high managers from all government agencies. The whole government has been bathing in the globalization alcohol for so many years that there is a huge interest group rooted for it to go forever. You can't do much without removing this group. There is no "legal", "orderly" retreat from the current situation IMHO. It's…

Why do you assume it’s governmental middle management that is the driving force of globalization? That project has been a mainstream private industry prerogative for 40+ years.

It's definitely both, and you can see I mentioned it in a follow-up reply to another commenter.

But Trump can only impact public sector at the moment, right?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#105

Post by analog31 »

jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

To put a finer point on it: How's basing the US economy on advertising looking?

I went to college and eventually got a PhD in physics. I've built specialized machine tools. Yet I'm considered a schmuck because I didn't go into software development, and the software developers are considered schmucks if they didn't go into financial services or advertising. And none of that was about emphasizing college. Becoming a programmer doesn't require college.

And lazy knucklehead stories are part of the workforce culture in virtually every occupation and industry. I'm sure I'm the lazy knucklehead in some of those stories.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#106

Post by jajko »

didericis wrote: post #81
nemomarx wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well why would you want to blow up international trade to begin with?

Because a rising power (China) backed a country (Russia) which didn’t bow to the dominant power (USA) that enables international trade, and intentionally blowing up international trade agreements now allows the USA more time to rebuild strategic supply chains to counter further violations of the international order. If the USA doesn’t have a secure industrial base and can’t reliably enforce the international order th…

That's... not how things will roll out. Sure it looks nice on some paper diagram my 5 year old son could pop out, but reality is way, way more complex.

Also, here its US who is doing massive 'violations of international order'. You know which order I talk about? WTO for example, US is founding member, an org specifically designed and accepted to handle this. Various international agreements between close allies. And so on, news are full of whims of one bipolar old man stomping left and right.

What is actually and already happening is that US will lose a lot of customers world wide. That Amazon cloud or tesla car or weapons (machinists heh) or literally any other US product ain't so cool or even acceptable anymore. What will happen actually that rest of the world will replace US products. Not just government, but regular people. Nobody wants to drink US whiskey or wine anymore. Nobody wants any US product or service anymore.

If you think 4% of global population (and just 26% of global GDP) can on whims dictate lives of 96% of mankind by force, well, that's like your opinion man.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#107

Post by jajko »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #85
pjc50 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "retreat" (in which direction) from the "current situation" (US richest country in the world, as they keep reminding us "Europoors"). What's the US supposed to look like after this purge?

Rich in what, exactly? Inflated stock prices? Inflated home prices? Empty processed-food calories? Are we the richest in recently-built public infrastructure or intellectual property (or both!!)? Maybe we're the richest in collateralized debt obligations? No one in the United States feels rich, when we look around, we don't see wealth or prosperity. We suspect, though we'd feel silly to say it out loud, that if anyon…

Come on, US is rich, even compared to Europe. Sure, its just pure money and not happiness, health, safety, high quality education or healthcare availability but raw numbers are there.

It will get poorer economically in upcoming years thanks to gov moves, the wheels have been set in motion. Maybe dollar will tank so that my first sentence won't be valid anymore. Not sure it will be balanced with rest above though.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#108

Post by themaninthedark »

hwillis wrote: post #31
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. Machine tools are not designed by extremely skilled machinists, they are designed by engineers. Machinists do not know how frames deflect or resonant modes or overconstraint or the other things that are critical in machine tool design. Machine tools are inherently dynamic systems where moving cutters cause…

I am an engineer, making physical stuff. I sometimes design things as well, I generally don't make it unless it is simple or the machinists are busy.

When they make it, they often have questions that turn into suggestions. I would say that any engineer that does not listen to their machinist is a bad one.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#109

Post by 1970-01-01 »

sleepyguy wrote: post #20

The problem is cost. We used to buy tooling for Acme Multi-Spindle Screw Machines but the Chinese could produce it for a fraction of the cost. You would have the first set made locally, then send the drawings to China, and pay less than the material cost to have them shipped to your door. In competitive markets, customers hammer you for every penny on a machined item that costs 0.12. These days not many Screw machine…

Forget about the entire iPhone. The USA cannot manufacture radios. I'm not joking. All fundamental communication technology (for consumers) is not made here.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#110

Post by anon84873628 »

simgt wrote: post #98
anon84873628 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which people got the COVID vaccine first? Why is HN in English and always talking about FAANG? Why do kids all around the world play with Spiderman? Asking for "vital" and "21st century" is a paradox, so maybe it's not what you really meant. But the proof of our success is all around if you're willing to actually look.

> But the proof of our success is all around if you're willing to actually look. Get a slice of humble pie. The proof of American failure is also all around if you're willing to actually look. Urbanism, health, environment, MAGA, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan. Easy to cherry pick, turns out many of us who have the luxury of being able to work in the US if they wanted to chose not to do so, maybe with good reasons? "Most…

I'm not saying there aren't grave problems with American empire. But the parents' take on this particular point is unsubstantiated.
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