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Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

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Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#61
Government announces critical need to invest in AI and sets aside a bunch of money for this purpose.

Suddenly the benchmarks become detached from reality and vendors can claim whatever they want about their "new" products.

Just as a possible explanation, as I feel like I've seen this story before.

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#62

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

LLMs will never be good at specific knowledge unless specifically trained for with narrow "if else" statements. Its good for broad general overview such as most popular categories of books in the world.

Really? Open-AI says PhD intelligence is just around the corner!

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#63

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

This is less an LLM thing than an information retrieval question. If you choose a model and tell it to “Search,” you find citation based analysis that discusses that he indeed had problems with alcohol. I do find it interesting it quibbles whether he was an alcoholic or not - it seems pretty clear from the rest that he was - but regardless. This is indicative of something crucial when placing LLMs into a toolkit. They are not omniscient nor are they deductive reasoning tools. Information retrieval systems are excellent at information retrieval and should be used for information retrieval. Solvers are excellent at solving deductive problems. Use them. The better they get at these tasks alone is cool but is IMO a parlor trick since we have nearly optimal or actually optimal techniques that don’t need an LLM. The LLM should use those tools. So, click search next time you have an information retrieval question. https://chatgpt.com/share/67f2dac0-3478-8000-9055-2ae5347037...

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#64

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

LLMs aren't good at being search engines, they're good at understanding things. Put an LLM on top of a search engine, and that's the appropriate tool for this use case.

I guess the problem with LLMs is that they're too usable for their own good, so people don't realizing that they can't perfectly know all the trivia in the world, exactly the same as any human.

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#65
There are real and obvious improvements in the past few model updates and I'm not sure what the disconnect there is.

Maybe it's that I do have PhD level questions to ask them, and they've gotten much better at it.

But I suspect that these anecdotes are driven by something else. Perhaps people found a workable prompt strategy by trial and error on an earlier model and it works less well with later models.

Or perhaps they have a time-sensitive task and are not able to take advantage of the thinking of modern LLMs, which have a slow thinking-based feedback loop. Or maybe their code base is getting more complicated, so it's harder to reason about.

Or perhaps they're giving the LLMs a poorly defined task where older models made assumptions about but newer models understand the ambiguity of and so find the space of solutions harder to navigate.

Since this is ultimately from a company doing AI scanning for security, I would think the latter plays a role to some extent. Security is insanely hard and the more you know about it the harder it is. Also adversaries are bound to be using AI and are increasing in sophistication, which would cause lower efficacy (although you could tease this effect out by trying older models with the newer threats).

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#66

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

So, in other words, are you saying that AI model progress is the real deal and is not bullshit? That is, as you point out, "all of the models up to o3-mini-high" give an incorrect answer, while other comments say that OpenAIs later models give correct answers, with web citations. So it would seem to follow that "recent AI model progress" actually made a verifiable improvement in this case.

I am pretty sure that they must have meant "up through", not "up to", as the answer from o3-mini-high is also wrong in a way which seems to fit the same description, no?

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#68
post #64

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

LLMs aren't good at being search engines, they're good at understanding things. Put an LLM on top of a search engine, and that's the appropriate tool for this use case. I guess the problem with LLMs is that they're too usable for their own good, so people don't realizing that they can't perfectly know all the trivia in the world, exactly the same as any human.

> LLMs aren't good at being search engines, they're good at understanding things.

LLMs are literally fundamentally incapable of understanding things. They are stochastic parrots and you've been fooled.

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#69
post #40

This is a bit of a meta-comment, but reading through the responses to a post like this is really interesting because it demonstrates how our collective response to this stuff is (a) wildly divergent and (b) entirely anecdote-driven. I have my own opinions, but I can't really say that they're not also based on anecdotes and personal decision-making heuristics. But some of us are going to end up right and some of us ar…

It's not surprising that responses are anecdotal. An easy way to communicate a generic sentiment often requires being brief.

A majority of what makes a "better AI" can be condensed to how effective the slope-gradient algorithms are at getting the local maxima we want it to get to. Until a generative model shows actual progress of "making decisions" it will forever be seen as a glorified linear algebra solver. Generative machine learning is all about giving a pleasing answer to the end user, not about creating something that is on the level of human decision making.

Re: Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

#70

My mom told me yesterday that Paul Newman had massive problems with alcohol. I was somewhat skeptical, so this morning I asked ChatGPT a very simple question: "Is Paul Newman known for having had problems with alcohol?" All of the models up to o3-mini-high told me he had no known problems. Here's o3-mini-high's response: "Paul Newman is not widely known for having had problems with alcohol. While he portrayed charact…

Gemini (2.5 Pro):

"Yes, Paul Newman was widely known for being a heavy drinker, particularly of beer. He himself acknowledged his significant alcohol consumption."

The answer I got (https://gemini.google.com/share/9e327dc4be03) includes references such as https://apnews.com/article/entertainment-reviews-movies-paul... and https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-playing-field/20... although they are redacted from the public-sharing link.

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