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Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

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Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#281

Post by dawnerd »

CalChris wrote: post #76
xbmcuser wrote: post #22

The point I soured on Musk was when he ditched radar/lidar and tried to go with camera's alone. This made me realize he is not the genius he is made out to be but instead he is a fraud/charlatan and over the years his statements on different topics have only hardened that belief. Why the fuck would you want ai cars to be the same as humans you should want them to be many times better and radarr/lidar sonarr type tech…

Radar. I remember some of his nonsense about disambiguating, despite the previous AP disambiguating just fine. Same with the rain sensor. This is a cheap part. Radar isn't very expensive either. To be fair, the ghost brakes on TACC have reduced. But I tend to control my wipers with voice.

I still get just as much phantom breaking. I’ve narrowed it down to the car using map speed limit data and losing track of where it is. It’s very consistent on 5 south in LA. The same spot every day.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#282

Post by vachina »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #237
vachina wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First To Gain U.S. Approval For Level 3 Automated Driving System It’s actually more a testament to Mercedes Benz’s ability to navigate regulatory slog. VW would’ve passed emissions if the technicians didn’t take it out of the lab to test for on-road conditions.

I see that you have also said "You can literally watch how (Tesla) FSD perform all readily live on YouTube" I for one find this line of argument - that videos on YouTube are a stronger signal than regulatory approval - to be absolutely wrongheaded, delusional and laughable. YouTube proves nothing, and as a platform, was never intended to. Unlike regulatory approval.

Do you need approval to prove LLM is useful in improving your productivity? No? You try it yourself and make that conclusion.

Comparing fsd to whatever Mercedes is doing is like chatgpt v Markov chains

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#284

Post by shepherdjerred »

crazygringo wrote: post #187
shepherdjerred wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk, many people are just bad at driving due to impatience. They don’t leave enough space/time to react even if they did have enough awareness

Sure but that's not all people. If you assume a constant rate of attention, but then massively increase what people are aware of during that attention, that's a massive increase in safety. Safety is affected by lots of factors. Increasing any of them increases safety -- you don't need to increase all of them to get improvements.

... I don't know.

Many people are in accidents that are entirely not their fault, e.g. being rear-ended. You can't do anything about those who drive unsafely, distracted, under the influence, etc.

Assuming you have a "good" driver, there are still plenty of times they might be into accidents for reasons that aren't because of awareness. For example, road conditions, behavior of other drivers, and just normal, honest mistakes.

At least for me, my own sense aren't really the limiting factor in my safety. My eyes are good enough. Modern cars have the equivalent of bowling lane bumpers with auto-centering, pre-collision warning, and blind spot warning/indicators.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#285

Post by potato3732842 »

throwaway31131 wrote: post #275
redox99 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radars are not as good as you think. They generally can't detect stationary objects, have problems with reflections, most of them are VERY low resolution, and so on. The "with almost perfect accuracy and very little false positives" part is not true. If you look at euroncap data, you'll see how most cars are not close to 100 in Safety Assist category (and Teslas with just vision are among the top). And these EuroNCAP…

> They generally can't detect stationary objects, have problems with reflections, most of them are VERY low resolution, and so on. Radar can absolutely detect a stationary object. The problem is not, "moving or not moving", it's "is the energy reflected back to the detector," as alluded to by your second qualification. So something that scatters or absorbs the transmitted energy is hard to measure with radar because…

Imagine if you could only see in a very narrow portion of the visible light spectrum, like only green or something. That's kind of how radar "sees" (I'm grossly over-simplifying here but point is it doesn't see the way we do).

It's hard to tell something sticking off the back of a truck or a motorcycle behind a vehicle without false positive triggering off of other stuff and panic braking at dumb times, something early systems (generically, not any particular OEM) were known for, which is why they were mostly limited to warnings not actual braking.

And while one can make bad faith comments all day about that not technically being the fault of the system doing the braking allowing such systems to proliferate would be a big class action lawsuit, and maybe even a revision of how liability is handled, waiting to happen.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#286

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

vachina wrote: post #282
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see that you have also said "You can literally watch how (Tesla) FSD perform all readily live on YouTube" I for one find this line of argument - that videos on YouTube are a stronger signal than regulatory approval - to be absolutely wrongheaded, delusional and laughable. YouTube proves nothing, and as a platform, was never intended to. Unlike regulatory approval.

Do you need approval to prove LLM is useful in improving your productivity? No? You try it yourself and make that conclusion. Comparing fsd to whatever Mercedes is doing is like chatgpt v Markov chains

This reply makes even less sense than assuming that YouTube is an alternative to regulatory testing and approval.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#287

Post by agubelu »

vitus wrote: post #200
energy123 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple independent sensor streams is like having multiple pilots fly a plane instead of just one pilot. The chance of a fatal error (false negative identification of an object near the car) decreases from p to p^n. The size of that decrease is not intuitive: if p=0.0001 it now becomes a much smaller number with the introduction of a second pilot or second independent sensor stream (0.0001^2). Now the errors are not…

I think that's an oversimplification, and helps mainly in the case where one sensor is totally offline. If you have two sensors, one says everything's fine but the other says you're about to crash, which one do you trust? What if the one that says you're about to crash is feeding you bad data? And what if the resulting course correction leads to a different failure? I'd hope that we've learned these lessons from the…

The difference with the 737 Max crashes is that there was only one sensor feeding data to the system, not two. If there's a discrepancy between the two sensors, disconnect the automation and let the human take control. And unlike planes, you can safely stop a car in almost all scenarios.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#288

Post by triplesec »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #254
daveguy wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[citation needed] Tesla releases all self driving statistics including time since disengagement of self-driving before accident, right?

https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde... The numbers include all incidents where self-driving was active within 30 seconds of the crash, because of course they do. The meme that Tesla is allowed to simply bypass reporting on a technicality would be absurd if it weren't so voraciously spread by post-truth luddites. Look, if you want to dunk on Elon, I get it, but he does so many real shitty thin…

Guess what: Musk will probably get this rewuirement scrapped by his orange mate.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-...

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#289

Post by bumby »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #254
daveguy wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[citation needed] Tesla releases all self driving statistics including time since disengagement of self-driving before accident, right?

https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde... The numbers include all incidents where self-driving was active within 30 seconds of the crash, because of course they do. The meme that Tesla is allowed to simply bypass reporting on a technicality would be absurd if it weren't so voraciously spread by post-truth luddites. Look, if you want to dunk on Elon, I get it, but he does so many real shitty thin…

If Tesla is Level 2, that link doesn’t support the OPs point about “all” incidents, but rather only those involved in a fatality, hospital treatment, airbag deployment, or towed vehicle. Am I reading that link correctly?

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#290

Post by rickyc091 »

This is exactly why I don't trust FSD in stop and go traffic. The follow distance is too close on some versions where it will accelerate hard and start braking around 10 feet. One misstep and that's a rear end. The latest version is better, where I feel more confident with it's easing, but there's constantly regressions where it goes back to an aggressive braking where I'm always afraid it'll rear end the other driver.
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