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Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

aei.org

81–90 of 205 posts

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reddit's r/QuiverQuantitative. follows trades and puts by members of congress. MJ Greene bought stock in Dollar General.

I’m not in the US, what could this mean?

It's a store chain that will soon be rebranded 'Ten Dollar General'.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#82
post #48

I don't quite understand the error this article is pointing out and how it could lead to a four fold inaccuracy. Can someone try explain with an example?

My understanding is they are saying the elasticity of the price (what can be absorbed by tariff increase) comes from the transaction in the retail market it ultimately sells to, yet the "equation" was using elasticity of the import costs.

In other words, Trump's equation thinks that import price will absorb (elasticity) the tariff's impact, but that's not true. It's passed on almost entirely (the 0.945 number, so 0.055 may be absorbed).

So it's using wrong numbers to justify the effective tariffs. IMO, I don't think Trump cares. I think the equation was a "straw-man".

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#83

Can anyone explain the reversal of positions on free trade between left and right since the 2000s? Back then, the biggest bogeyman of leftists was globalization and they would protest against free trade agreements and wanted to boycott imports from poor countries because it was exploiting workers there and taking jobs from poor people in rich countries. At the same time rightists loved free trade because it was good…

because the constituencies have been largely reversed.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#84
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potentially France could have all imports from US pass by Martinique and they’d save a lot of money

And offer a loophole to any European company.

Like putting HQ in the Netherlands to avoid corporate tax of all other EU counties

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#85
I believe the idea was "Very High Tarrifs" and the formula was some kid in MS Excel . They are definitely not reciprocal. They don't need to be, since the plan was to use the high tarrifs as negotiating tool to somehow reduce the US national debt

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#86
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only that, but I assume they'll take more bites of the apple as they go down the list country by country and negotiate better rates for some kind of kickback and market manipulation opportunity.

it's kinda strange that the largest tariff is in a landlocked country a 5 hour drive from elon musk's hometown. All the numbers on what a country is supposedly charging america appear to be a complete fabrication so we're forced to find other motivation for setting the numbers the way they did.

Not sure if I understand you correctly. I just watched a Youtube video explaining the formular. The Youtube user checked all 160+ countries. All have been calculated with the formular. So there seems to be no Motivation in this sense. All have received the same broken treatment.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#87
The global economy is a complex system. Far more complex than software. All of the nerds will adjust their pocket protectors and spew their dubious word-salad (for or against), but the fact of the matter is that nobody truly knows what the nth-order effects will be until they happen.

AEI is just another church of Austrian economics--still burning incense for the ghost of Milton Friedman. If you told any of them, "Tariffs, or your mother dies in her sleep tonight.", they would reply in chorus, "Oh well, that's why I keep a picture to remember her by." If any of these people actually knew what they were talking about, they would be fabulously wealthy hedgies like Dalio or Simons, rather than "think-tank" shills.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for countries that pay a worker $10 a day, put a tariff on the goods produced by that worker to total $10 for countries that pay a worker $15 dollars a day put a tariff on the goods produced by that work to total $4 therefore someone importing goods produced by one worker in one day from the lower wage country would spend $20 for the goods from the lower wage country but only $19 for the goods for the higher wage cou…

That’s a nice idea, but I’m skeptical—where is the new wealth coming from that will allow Lesotho to pay its workers more? It’s not an issue of strong-arming some bad guys in Lesotho to pay their workers more using tariffs as a negotiation tool. I feel that conflating tariffs with some sort of negotiation tool to bring about positive global change is disingenuous, because the real aim is clearly protectionism.

It's coming from the people who buy the exported goods.

This would mean, of course, that the people who happen to work for an export-oriented factory become much more wealthy than most people in Lesotho. So you might reasonably wonder whether it's better to make twice as many workers half as wealthy. Labor advocates believe the answer is no: paying some people genuinely good wages both creates and encourages further development, while paying a larger number of people "good enough" wages encourages poor countries to race to the bottom competing for the lowest standard of "good enough".

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#89
post #85

I believe the idea was "Very High Tarrifs" and the formula was some kid in MS Excel . They are definitely not reciprocal. They don't need to be, since the plan was to use the high tarrifs as negotiating tool to somehow reduce the US national debt

I think that is just sane washing. Original idea was that tariffs are good and America is being ripped off whenever it buy stuff. The rest are mutually exclusive rationalizations by Trump loyalists trying to make it sound reasonable.

There are multiple of these explanations and none od them is consistent with actual decisions.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want the people who work to make the things I use to earn more than $150 per month. A sane tariff policy would be set up to penalize these very low wage exporters to give competitive advantage to exporters and local producers with higher wages but also to incentivize higher wages in a way that set rates make producers more profitable if they paid workers more (and likewise other human development and environmental…

I don’t see how tariffs magically create wealth for foreign exporters that translates into higher wages. Let’s say I can buy a $10 shirt from Lesotho with zero tariff. Now a 50% tariff gets imposed. I can either eat the tariff and pay $15, in which case Lesotho still gets their $10, or Lesotho can eat the tariff to keep their exports competitive, in which case Lesotho now makes $5. The part about giving a competitive…

Maybe the $5 per garment could go to USAid, and fund care programmes in those countries.

A truely laughable suggestion.

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