451–460 of 777 posts
You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…
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Care to explain your rationale? Seems like Russia is in no position to invade any NATO country unless the US leaves the alliance. They've proven themselves wholly outclassed in Ukraine, against a much smaller country with refurb gear.
Furthermore, Russia has no plans to invade any NATO country. It just won't let NATO invade^W expand to Ukraine. And no, this war is not how you describe it: said 'much smaller country' was 2nd biggest (in terms of military strength) in Europe after Russia itself. And it's not a 1x1 war of big Russia vs small Ukraine: Ukraine got help from all over Europe, G.B., U.S. and Canada. Help in arms, in intel, in training, in…
Not only are you attempting to prove a negative with "trust me bro" but it's especially laughable given recent history. Please tell me how many days before the Ukraine invasion Russia had "no plans to invade".
> this war is not how you describe it: said 'much smaller country'
Personally I consider 1/3 the population "much smaller" but you do you.
> it's not a 1x1 war of big Russia vs small Ukraine: Ukraine got help from all over Europe, G.B., U.S. and Canada.
Exactly why the US remaining in NATO prevents a large scale conventional war. Because Russia is pathetic unless it is bullying smaller neighbors or threatening nuclear war.
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What was the point?
When faced with "cash in hand that might lose value through inflation" versus "the stocks you currently own at risk of being worthless", the decision to sell is straightforward even in the absense of a next step.
The decision to sell is not straightforward, even given the current situation. It would probably be the wrong decision for the average person unless you really know what you are doing.
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Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our el…
America is the richest country in the world. That is the payback. Yet somehow the working class is screwed. People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists". It's an emotional response. I'm scared how far they take it.
Whether or not the “right wing working class” are right in their root cause analysis, the domestic situation in the US is catastrophic enough to demand explanation:
“If we are the richest country on earth, why can’t I afford a house and healthcare?”
Answer 2: The whole world has made Americans front the bill for a regime of global peace, security, and a trusted reserve currency, at the cost of you, the American worker!
Depending on which answer you choose, and which camp you ally with, your worldview will differ.
So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
I'll give the consensus answers from the trading arena. Each of your questions has a fairly significant long-term backdrop, a medium-term one, a short term one, and an immediate day-to-day narrative. That's fairly obvious, but there is strong confluence now when it comes to some of the things you are asking. And please ignore the grammar - on a phone and banging it out: International money is now flowing out of US as…
Response from friends who voted for this because of Elon: “let them cook“. This doesn’t seem to shock them
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Well, I disagree but the current policies guarantee it's not recoverable so a debate would mostly be around hypotheticals. We're reducing revenue but not spending (or not enough to offset the reduction in revenue so the deficit will rise), so the debt will only continue to rise at an increasing rate. Ironically, Trump has the record for the highest deficit ever in US history. He's on track to beat it though and with…
> Ironically, Trump has the record for the highest deficit ever in US history. hardly relevant comment since all presidents left and right have been pushing the button to increase deficits (and congress is completely responsible as well for not trying to balance the budget) so this is a systemic problem that will bring the downfall of America no matter what. It's just a matter of time, and with that level of debt, th…
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> This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. The slim hope to a voting bloc in the Upper Midwest that maybe, somehow, this will bring back manufacturing. They've tried everything else; why…
I’m from Southern Ohio which was not hit as hard, but I know the attitude well. I call it “rust belt rage.” I remember during the first Trump election hearing quotes like “I hope he does as much damage as possible” and “I can’t throw a bomb into the White House but I can throw a Trump.” Lots more like that. The attitude in that region of the country is absolute seething rage. A lot of people from Northern Ohio, Weste…
> Then the media makes you the butt of jokes. Calls you “flyover country.”
The people in your analogy are not the same types suffering from rust belt rage. One group is willing and very wanting to learn and grow and build, and the other is openly antagonistic to any sort of growth.
That's why they became flyover country. I don't think that would happen on the west coast if your scenario were to occur because of the different culture.
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Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.
I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…