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Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

nytimes.com

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Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#81

Post by yannis »

ty6853 wrote: post #62
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck, so no - the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. Those that can will be cutting spending, which will ripple across the rest of the economy. There's no sign that negotiation is even possible, never mind likely. One tell is that tariffs have been applied to the Heard and…

Mexican cartels just got handed the biggest payday of their wildest dreams. 30% profit on the entire global economy if only they can get it past the border.

Strangely, I was thinking about this yesterday, that smuggling now became profitable :) It used to be and still is very profitable in some countries with goods that attract big tariffs like cigarettes. Gray markets will boom.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#82

Post by sgc »

alephnerd wrote: post #38
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck, so no - the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. Those that can will be cutting spending, which will ripple across the rest of the economy. There's no sign that negotiation is even possible, never mind likely. One tell is that tariffs have been applied to the Heard and…

> the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. The median American household has an income of around $78,000 [0]. They can survive the blowback. The Trump admin on the other hand will not. As a Sullivan, Raimondo, and IRA supporting Dem, it's a win-win for me. Harsher policies against China have been enacted which will not be…

You do understand that means half of all American households make less than 78k? If your reasoning is based on the upper half of wealthiest Americans, it ignores virtually all the most vulnerable.

Income distribution: https://www.statista.com/statistics/203183/percentage-distri...

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#83

Post by dazilcher »

alephnerd wrote: post #7
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…

> a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react

Can you explain the magical supply chain adjustment that will lower prices after a year?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#84

Post by vdupras »

ajross wrote: post #77
vdupras wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it was OPs point. OP's point is that agricultural exporters in Utah profits on externalizations (aquifer depletion), which impoverishes everybody depending on that aquifer. When you come to the realization that you can't drink money, this comes as good news.

So... you think Utahns are simply going to stop farming and end up destitute? I'm not following. No, they'll keep turning the spigot on because they have kids to feed, they'll just be poorer. If you want better water regulation in the Utah desert, the solution is better water regulation in the Utah desert and not a huge tax on trade.

Of course they'll continue farming. Just not alfalfa!

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#85

Post by FirmwareBurner »

wtcactus wrote: post #58
dimitrios1 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not part of Trump's fan base, and I am in favor of taking action to reverse decades of negative trends I've seen happening as a result of American corporations selling their souls to the highest outside bidders. It's going to be short term pain for long term gain.

Negative trends of what? Exchanging highly paid services for cheap goods? EU needs to start taxing heavily any services provided here by the USA. Having the USA moron in Chief pretending that the comercial balance is solely made of physical goods to create an Excel sheet warrants a nice lesson.

>EU needs to start taxing heavily any services provided here by the USA.

Their services are provided by companies/branches in the EU not the US.

When you buy a EC2/S3 bucket from AWS you get invoiced by Amazon Luxembourg, not Amazon Washington. When you buy a Microsoft, Google, PayPal, Meta or Apple service, you'll be buying from a company registered in Ireland or Netherlands. And most of them also have datacenters in the EU for their EU customers.

So how do you tax them more than other companies in the EU? Make The Great EUSSR Firewall?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#86

Post by kashunstva »

alephnerd wrote: post #7
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…

> but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year

- Wasn’t this the administration that campaigned on lowering costs of goods? Now, not even a half-year in, the narrative is “Sorry, deal with it, while we chaotically disrupt global markets.” - The administration is apparently intent on a strategy that builds the U.S. manufacturing base. That’s not a one-year horizon, if ever.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#87

Post by bitshiftfaced »

morsecodist wrote: post #20
boxed wrote: post #10

How is it retaliation to destroy your own economy by making the same bad life choices? Isn't actual retaliation to just ignore the entire thing and thank the US for the extra percentage points in advantage you got for free?

If you assume the US tariffs are unchangeable then you would be right but the hope of retaliatory tariffs is that they will get the US to update it's tariffs in response to the economic harm caused. It will also harm China of course but I would imagine they hope the harm caused to the US will reduce the tariffs and leave China better off in the long run. This is not totally unreasonable, the US is ostensibly more sen…

If the US is consistent with the tariff policy that they've laid out, then I'd expect the opposite to happen. If China increases their tariffs and as a result increases their trade surplus, then that means that the US's tariffs go up as they are a function of the US's trade deficit.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#88

Post by UncleEntity »

jpster wrote: post #64
heisgone wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that wo…

What’s worrisome is, if they’re planning on things to suck until 2028, that is precisely when the next presidential election is supposed to happen. Suppose he feels like he must have 4 more years, to take credit for the V-shaped recovery, and not go out like a loser? Suppose he declines to step down?

They're already talking about how he can have a third term, 22nd amendment be damned.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#89

Post by y-curious »

ajross wrote: post #77
vdupras wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it was OPs point. OP's point is that agricultural exporters in Utah profits on externalizations (aquifer depletion), which impoverishes everybody depending on that aquifer. When you come to the realization that you can't drink money, this comes as good news.

So... you think Utahns are simply going to stop farming and end up destitute? I'm not following. No, they'll keep turning the spigot on because they have kids to feed, they'll just be poorer. If you want better water regulation in the Utah desert, the solution is better water regulation in the Utah desert and not a huge tax on trade.

Yeah, because passing water regulation under any administration, let alone this one, is a common occurrence. /s

OP was just trying to make lemonade from the lemons we are served.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#90

Post by bryanlarsen »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
drumhead wrote: post #4

No Hyper-economy, like China or the EU is going to stand about and take what seems like economic intimidation from the US. All the unaffiliated nations are going to be collateral damage in this clash of the economic titans. The best thing everyone can do is maintain low tariffs and try and strike free trade deals with each other. But the consequeces of Trumps Trade war are going to be disasterous for smaller developi…

Why does America get inflation and everyone else gets deflation in your view?

Chinese firms that used to produce goods for the US are now going to sell these goods in other countries instead, increasing supply in the other countries, lowering prices.
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