321–330 of 641 posts
Feels reasonable in the first few paragraphs, then quickly starts reading like science fiction. Would love to read a perspective examining "what is the slowest reasonable pace of development we could expect." This feels to me like the fastest (unreasonable) trajectory we could expect.
That's kind of unavoidably what accelerating progress feels like.
> "resist the temptation to get better ratings from gullible humans by hallucinating citations or faking task completion" Everything this from this point on is pure fiction. An LLM can't get tempted or resist temptations, at best there's some local minimum in a gradient that it falls into. As opaque and black-box-y as they are, they're still deterministic machines. Anthropomorphisation tells you nothing useful about…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
These timelines always assume that things progress as quickly as they can be conceived of, likely because these timelines come from "Ideas Guys" whose involvement typically ends at that point. Orbital mechanics begs to disagree about a Mars colony in 10 years. Drug discovery has many steps that take time, even just the trials will take 5 years, let alone actually finding the drugs.
Didn't the covid significantly reduce trial times? I thought that was such a success that they continued on the same foot.
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I fail to see how corporations are responsible for the climate crisis: Politicians won't tax gas because they'll get voted out. We know that Trump is not captured by corporations because his trade policies are terrible. If anything, social media is the evil that's destroying the political center: Americans are no longer reading mainstream newspapers or watching mainstream TV news. The EU is saying the elections in Ro…
If you put a knife in someone’s heart, you’re the one who did it and ultimately you’re responsible. If someone told you to do it and you were just following orders… you still did it. If you say there were no rules against putting knives in other people’s hearts, you still did it and you’re still responsible. If it’s somehow different for corporations, please enlighten me how.
Taxes are the best way to change behaviour (smaller cars driving less. Less flying etc). So government and the people who vote for them is to blame.
It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…
I fail to see how corporations are responsible for the climate crisis: Politicians won't tax gas because they'll get voted out. We know that Trump is not captured by corporations because his trade policies are terrible. If anything, social media is the evil that's destroying the political center: Americans are no longer reading mainstream newspapers or watching mainstream TV news. The EU is saying the elections in Ro…
I wonder if that's corporations' fault after all: shitty working conditions and shitty wages, so that Bezos can afford to send penises into space. What poor person would agree to higher tax on gas? And the corps are the ones backing politicians who'll propagandize that "Unions? That's communism! Do you want to be Chaina?!" (and spread by those dickheads on the corporate-owned TV and newspaper, drunk dickheads who end up becoming defense secretary)
Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-... //edit: remove the referral tags from URL
> (2025) Making models bigger is not what’s cool anymore. They are trillions of parameters big already. What’s cool is making them run longer, in bureaucracies of various designs, before giving their answers. Holy shit. That's a hell of a called shot from 2021.
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I think LLM or no LLM the emergence of intelligence appears to be closely related to the number of synapses in a network whether a biological or a digital one. If my hypothesis is roughly true it means we are several orders of magnitude away from AGI. At least the kind of AGI that can be embodied in a fully functional robot with the sensory apparatus that rivals the human body. In order to build circuits of this dens…
Exponential growth means the first order of magnitude comes slowly and the last one runs past you unexpectedly.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you put a knife in someone’s heart, you’re the one who did it and ultimately you’re responsible. If someone told you to do it and you were just following orders… you still did it. If you say there were no rules against putting knives in other people’s hearts, you still did it and you’re still responsible. If it’s somehow different for corporations, please enlighten me how.
The oil companies are saying their product is vital to the economy and they are not wrong. How else will we get food from the farms to the store ? Ambulances to the hospitals ? And many, many other things. Taxes are the best way to change behaviour (smaller cars driving less. Less flying etc). So government and the people who vote for them is to blame.