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AI 2027

ai-2027.com

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Re: AI 2027

#121

Post by neural_thing »

ffsm8 wrote: post #90
reducesuffering wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? This forum has been so behind for too long. Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei,…

People have been predicting the singularity to occur sometimes around 2030 and 2045 waaaay further back then 2015. And not just by enthusiasts, I dimly remember an interview with Richard Darkins from back in the day... Though that doesn't mean that the current version of language models will ever achieve AGI, and I sincerely doubt they will. They'll likely be a component in the AI, but likely not the thing that "driv…

Vernor Vinge as much as anyone can be credited with the concept of the singularity. In his 1993 essay on it, he said he'd be surprised if it happened before 2005 or after 2030

https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html

Re: AI 2027

#122

Post by ZeroTalent »

superconduct123 wrote: post #115

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

People who are skilled fiction writers might lack technical expertise. In my opinion, this is simply an interesting piece of science fiction.

Re: AI 2027

#123

Post by AlphaAndOmega0 »

superconduct123 wrote: post #115

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast.

The others include:

Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an adversarial attack framework for language models.

Jonas Vollmer, a VC at Macroscopic Ventures, which has done its own, more practical form of successful AI forecasting: they made an early stage investment in Anthropic, now worth $60 billion.

Thomas Larsen, the former executive director of the Center for AI Policy, a group which advises policymakers on both sides of the aisle.

Romeo Dean, a leader of Harvard’s AI Safety Student Team and budding expert in AI hardware.

And finally, Scott Alexander himself.

Re: AI 2027

#124

Post by Tenoke »

superconduct123 wrote: post #115

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

..The first person listed is ex-OpenAI.

Re: AI 2027

#125

Post by layer8 »

crazystar wrote: post #102
Jun8 wrote: post #96

ACT post where Scott Alexander provides some additional info: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027 . Manifold currently predicts 30%: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictio...

47% now soo a coin toss

32% again now.

Re: AI 2027

#127

Post by ugh123 »

porphyra wrote: post #41

Seems very sinophobic. Deepseek and Manus have shown that China is legitimately an innovation powerhouse in AI but this article makes it sound like they will just keep falling behind without stealing.

Don't confuse innovation with optimisation.

Re: AI 2027

#128

Post by torginus »

beklein wrote: post #9

Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-... //edit: remove the referral tags from URL

I'm not seeing the prescience here - I don't wanna go through the specific points but the main gist here seems to be that chatbots will become very good at pretending to be human and influencing people to their own ends.

I don't think much has happened on these fronts (owning to a lack of interest, not technical difficulty). AI boyfriends/roleplaying etc. seems to have stayed a very niche interest, with models improving very little over GPT3.5, and the actual products are seemingly absent.

It's very much the product of the culture war era, where one of the scary scenarios show off, is a chatbot riling up a set of internet commenters and goarding them lashing out against modern leftist orthodoxy, and then cancelling them.

With all thestrongholds of leftist orthodoxy falling into Trump's hands overnight, this view of the internet seems outdated.

Troll chatbots still are a minor weapon in information warfare/ The 'opinion bubbles' and manipulation of trending topics on social media (with the most influential content still written by humans), to change the perception of what's the popular concensus still seem to hold up as primary tools of influence.

Nowadays, when most people are concerned about stuff like 'will the US go into a shooting war against NATO' or 'will they manage to crash the global economy', just to name a few of the dozen immediately pressing global issues, I think people are worried about different stuff nowadays.

At the same time, there's very little mention of 'AI will take our jobs and make us poor' in both the intellectual and physical realms, something that's driving most people's anxiety around AI nowadays.

It also puts the 'superintelligent unaligned AI will kill us all' argument very often presented by alignment people as a primary threat rather than the more plausible 'people controlling AI are the real danger'.

Re: AI 2027

#129

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

reducesuffering wrote: post #87
motoxpro wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's incredible how much it broadly aligns with what has happened. Especially because it was before ChatGPT.

Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? This forum has been so behind for too long. Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei,…

> Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal?

OK, say I totally believe this. What, pray tell, are we supposed to do about it?

Don't you at least see the irony of quoting Sama's dire warnings about the development of AI, without at least mentioning that he is at the absolute forefront of the push to build this technology that can destroy all of humanity. It's like he's saying "This potion can destroy all of humanity if we make it" as he works faster and faster to figure out how to make it.

I mean, I get it, "if we don't build it, someone else will", but all of the discussion around "alignment" seems just blatantly laughable to me. If on one hand your goal is to build "super intelligence", i.e. way smarter than any human or group of humans, how do you expect to control that super intelligence when you're just acting at the middling level of human intelligence?

While I'm skeptical on the timeline, if we do ever end up building super intelligence, the idea that we can control it is a pipe dream. We may not be toast (I mean, we're smarter than dogs, and we keep them around), but we won't be in control.

So if you truly believe super intelligent AI is coming, you may as well enjoy the view now, because there ain't nothing you or anyone else will be able to do to "save humanity" if or when it arrives.

Re: AI 2027

#130

Post by pixl97 »

reducesuffering wrote: post #87
motoxpro wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's incredible how much it broadly aligns with what has happened. Especially because it was before ChatGPT.

Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? This forum has been so behind for too long. Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei,…

>This forum has been so behind for too long.

There is a strong financial incentive for a lot of people on this site to deny they are at risk from it, or to deny what they are building has risk and they should have culpability from that.

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