https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Disappointment
I suspect something similar will come for the people who actually believe this.
AI 2027
111–120 of 641 posts
Re: AI 2027
#112The whole thing hinges on the fact that AI will be able to help with AI research How will it come up with the theoretical breakthroughs necessary to beat the scaling problem GPT-4.5 revealed when it hasn't been proven that LLMs can come up with novel research in any field at all?
Scaling transformers has been basically alchemy, the breakthroughs aren’t from rigorous science they are from trying stuff and hoping you don’t waste millions of dollars in compute.
Maybe the company that just tells an AI to generate 100s of random scaling ideas, and tries them all is the one that will win. That company should probably be 100 percent committed to this approach also, no FLOPs spent on ghibli inference.
Re: AI 2027
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure 5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it. Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities. 10 years: AI assistants are now u…
> Small light computers become fast enough that autonomous slaughter it's become reality This is the real scary bit. I'm not convinced that AI will ever be good enough to think independently and create novel things without some serious human supervision, but none of that matters when applied to machines that are destructive by design and already have expectations of collateral damage. Slaughterbots are going to be th…
Zero Dawn future confirmed.
Re: AI 2027
#114LOL
Re: AI 2027
#115Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...
Re: AI 2027
#116This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.
We currently don't see any ceiling if this continues in this speed, we will have cheaper, faster and better models every quarter.
Therewas never something progressing so fast
It would be very ignorant not to keep a very close eye on it
There is still a a chance that it will happen a lot slower and the progression will be slow enough that we adjust in time.
But besides AI we also now get robots. The impact for a lot of people will be very real
Re: AI 2027
#117Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-... //edit: remove the referral tags from URL
This is damn near prescient, I'm having a hard time believing it was written in 2021. He did get this part wrong though, we ended up calling them 'Mixture of Experts' instead of 'AI bureaucracies'.
We were calling them 'Mixture of Experts' ~30 years before that.
Re: AI 2027
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure 5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it. Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities. 10 years: AI assistants are now u…
> Small light computers become fast enough that autonomous slaughter it's become reality This is the real scary bit. I'm not convinced that AI will ever be good enough to think independently and create novel things without some serious human supervision, but none of that matters when applied to machines that are destructive by design and already have expectations of collateral damage. Slaughterbots are going to be th…
Why do you believe that?
The lowest estimations of how much compute our brain represents was already achieved with the last chip from Nvidia (Blackwell).
The newest gpu cluster from Google, Microsoft, Facebook, iax, and co have added so crazy much compute it's absurd.
Re: AI 2027
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm pretty sure you're wrong for at least 2 of those: For 3D models, check out blender-mcp: https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1joaowb/claude... https://old.reddit.com/r/aiwars/comments/1jbsn86/claude_crea... Also this: https://old.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1hejglg/tr... For teaching, I'm using it to learn about tech I'm unfamiliar with every day, it's one of the things it's the most amazing at…
Just think about the delta of what the LLM does and what a human does, or why can’t the LLM replace the human, e.g. in a game studio. If it can replace a teacher or an artist in 2027, you’re right and I’m wrong.
It's already replacing artists; that's why they're up in arms. People don't need stock photographers or graphic designers as much as they used to.