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AI 2027

ai-2027.com

51–60 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#51
Amusing sci-fi, i give it a B- for bland prose, weak story structure, and lack of originality - assuming this isn't all AI gen slop which is awarded an automatic F.

>All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.

A private company becoming "too powerful" is a non issue for governments, unless a drone army is somewhere in that timeline. Fun fact the former head of the NSA sits on the board of Open AI.

Job loss is a non issue, if there are corresponding economic gains they can be redistributed.

"Alignment" is too far into the fiction side of sci-fi. Anthropomorphizing today's AI is tantamount to mental illness.

"But really, what if AGI?" We either get the final say or we don't. If we're dumb enough to hand over all responsibility to an unproven agent and we get burned, then serves us right for being lazy. But if we forge ahead anyway and AGI becomes something beyond review, we still have the final say on the power switch.

Re: AI 2027

#52
post #37

This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.

You forgot fusion energy

Quantum AI powered by cold fusion and blockchain when?

Re: AI 2027

#53

This is absurd, like taking any trend and drawing a straight line to interpolate the future. If I would do this with my tech stock portfolio, we would probably cross the zero line somewhere late 2025... If this article were a AI model, it would be catastrophically overfit.

It's worse. It's not drawing a straight line, it's drawing one that curves up, on a log graph.

Re: AI 2027

#54
post #9

Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-... //edit: remove the referral tags from URL

How does it talk about GPT-1 or 3 if it was before ChatGPT?

Re: AI 2027

#55
What is this, some OpenAI employee fan fiction? Did Sam himself write this?

OpenAI models are not even SOTA, except that new-ish style transfer / illustration thing that made all us living in Ghibli world for a few days. R1 is _better_ than o1, and open-weights. GPT-4.5 is disappointing, except for a few narrow areas where it excels. DeepResearch is impressive though, but the moat is in tight web search / Google Scholar search integration, not weights. So far, I'd bet on open models or maybe Anthropic, as Claude 3.7 is the current SOTA for most tasks.

As of the timeline, this is _pessimistic_. I already write 90% code with Claude, so are most of my colleagues. Yes, it does errors, and overdoes things. Just like a regular human middle-stage software engineer.

Also fun that this assumes relatively stable politics in the US and relatively functioning world economy, which I think is crazy optimistic to rely on these days.

Also, superpersuasion _already works_, this is what I am researching and testing. It is not autonomous, it is human-assisted by now, but it is a superpower for those who have it, and it explains some of the things happening with the world right now.

Re: AI 2027

#56
Could not get through the entire thing. It’s mostly a bunch of fantasy intermingled with bits of possible interesting discussion points. The whole right side metrics are purely a distraction because entirely fiction.

Re: AI 2027

#57

Seems very sinophobic. Deepseek and Manus have shown that China is legitimately an innovation powerhouse in AI but this article makes it sound like they will just keep falling behind without stealing.

Stealing model weights isn't even particularly useful long-term, it's the training + data generation recipes that have value.

Re: AI 2027

#58

This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.

I like that the "slowdown" scenario has by 2030 we have a robot economy, cure for aging, brain uploading, and are working on a Dyson Sphere.
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