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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#821

Post by faizan-ali »

electriclove wrote: post #721
roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

There are small olive oil producers in the US. Do they see this as a good thing?

I've put together a directory of olive oil producers from California:) https://www.californiaoliveoil.info/

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#822

Post by leptoniscool »

nzealand wrote: post #715
TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

> the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, > The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy. > What are the flaws in this thinking? Flaw #1: Massive treasury rollovers isn't new. 22% of all Treasuries have a duration of 1 year or less. The only…

it's true.. the S&P 500 declined ~57% from Oct 2007 to Mar 2009

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#823

Post by DSingularity »

keithxm23 wrote: post #820
svara wrote: post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens. Agreed. However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most. The pain is felt most by the low-skill workers you mentioned earlier. If the solution was instead along the lines of changing tax-brackets to tax the 'privileged' more, that migh…

Nobody has faith in the governments ability to put that money to good use. The US gov uses significant amounts of its budget to fund weapon development, promote weapon sales, change unfriendly foreign governments, support friendly foreign governments, and genocide troublesome foreign populations. Who will support raising more taxes to maintain and expand such efforts?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#824

Post by footlose_3815 »

You'd think that experts before this time would have considered this already, and rejected it.

Every single move by Trump towards the world economy has always been a bad one. Too bad to be mistakes.

They're not listening to the experts, and it's intentional.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#825

Post by lxgr »

misja111 wrote: post #676
TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

The flaw is that the USD is massively dropping because of the tarifs. This will push up interest rates on US bonds, because bond holders want compensation for the value loss of their bond.

> The flaw is that the USD is massively dropping because of the tarifs.

That's all but certain. Currently it's dropping, but long-term it might as well rise, as the demand for foreign currencies from US importers (and by extension consumers) will go down.

> This will push up interest rates on US bonds, because bond holders want compensation for the value loss of their bond.

How do existing bondholders get to demand anything? They may want compensation for a reduced market value, but nobody owes them that. Fluctuating market values are part of the deal of buying bonds.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#826

Post by wormlord »

aurareturn wrote: post #323
mcoliver wrote: post #92

Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...

Are we factoring in digital/service trades? For example, Netflix is in Vietnam. There are many Netflix subscribers in Vietnam. Does that get factored into the trade deficit? Or is it only physical goods that get factored in? Vietnam uses many US services such as Microsoft Office, Netflix, ChatGPT, Facebook ads, etc. This is revenue that directly go into the pockets of American companies.

Wow, everything's computer!

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#827

Post by summerlight »

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

Agreed, the root of the problem is that America has relatively zero modern manufacturing infrastructure and manpower, especially compared to China. Those MAGA folks just don't know this. Offshoring happened not just because of cheaper price; China already had a much better environment even 20 years ago thanks to billions of people.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#829

Post by partiallypro »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

Tax receipts drop during recessions, generally governments have to issue even -more- debt during them.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#830

Post by snappieT »

aurareturn wrote: post #372
doener wrote: post #225

"This guy cracked the tariff formula: @orthonormalist It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us. Yes. Really. Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1 Deficit = 123.5 123.5/136.6 = 90%" https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907568233239949431

Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1 Deficit = 123.5 Taking Vietnam as an example, keep in mind that the trade deficit calculation only uses physical goods. Vietnam exports low value physical goods to the US. The US sells high value non-physical services such as Microsoft office, ChatGPT, Netflix, Facebook ads, iOS Appstore fees, iCloud subscriptions, etc to Vietnam. Other services include engineering consultants, US…

I am quite certain that none of that software revenue is recognized in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%27s_EU_tax_dispute
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