AI 2027

#1

Post by Tenoke » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:13 PM UTC

AI 2027
ai-2027.com

Re: AI 2027

#2

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:24 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: AI 2027

#3

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:42 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: AI 2027

#4

Post by ikerino » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:00 PM UTC

Feels reasonable in the first few paragraphs, then quickly starts reading like science fiction.

Would love to read a perspective examining "what is the slowest reasonable pace of development we could expect." This feels to me like the fastest (unreasonable) trajectory we could expect.

Re: AI 2027

#5

Post by ahofmann » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:04 PM UTC

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

Re: AI 2027

#6

Post by WhatsName » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:11 PM UTC

This is absurd, like taking any trend and drawing a straight line to interpolate the future. If I would do this with my tech stock portfolio, we would probably cross the zero line somewhere late 2025...

If this article were a AI model, it would be catastrophically overfit.

Re: AI 2027

#7

Post by Lionga » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:12 PM UTC

AI now even got it's own fan fiction porn. It is so stupid not sure whether it is worse if it is written by AI or by a human.

Re: AI 2027

#8

Post by the_cat_kittles » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:12 PM UTC

"we demand to be taken seriously!"

Re: AI 2027

#9

Post by beklein » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:12 PM UTC

Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT)

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...

//edit: remove the referral tags from URL

Re: AI 2027

#10

Post by Tenoke » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:13 PM UTC

ahofmann wrote: post #5

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

That seems naive in a status quo bias way to me. Why and where do you expect AI progress to stop? It sounds like somewhere very close to where we are at in your eyes. Why do you think there won't be many further improvements?