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Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

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Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#161

Post by sparky_z »

mike-cardwell wrote: post #137
spitfire wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What type of accidents though? Do people get in a number of fender benders over their lives? or head on at 65mph? What sort of accidents will GoogleCar be prone to? Fender benders, or a head on at 65mph every 500K? I'm very hopeful about this. Most people don't want to drive most of the time. As long as I can still drive my V12 Aston martin manually when I want to, this is awesome.

I imagine, once automated cars are safe and popular enough, they will mandate that all new cars must have it and set a date after which only automated cars are allowed on the road. It will become an offence to take over and drive manually unless the circumstance demands it. You'll be fine driving your Aston Martin, but your kids, or their kids might not be.

I don't buy it. In that scenario, how does anybody learn to drive in the first place? Someone who hasn't spent years of their life driving manually won't have developed the skills to intervene properly in an emergency. At best, driving would, become a specialty career/hobby, like piloting aircraft.

By the time all personal transportation is automatic, it won't just be the status quo with "robot chauffeurs". The whole transportation ecosystem will have to change substantially. Self-driving cars are just a first step to get people used to (or even enamored with) the idea of automatic transportation on a large scale.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#162

Post by jadyoyster »

spindritf wrote: post #122
paganel wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autonomous cars are the next big tech that changes the world - I put them up there with computer, Internet, and smart phone. I wouldn't be so sure. Yeah, it might prove to be a very good thing for the United States, but for the rest of world there's first Europe's public transport networks (I'm 31, don't have a driver's license, I live in Europe, I'm doing perfectly fine, thank you), and short of us reaching the Si…

> I'm 31, don't have a driver's license, I live in Europe, I'm doing perfectly fine, thank you I have a license but don't have a car (actually owning a car was too much of a hassle) and you're only telling half the story. Yes, day to day not having a car is fine, but every once in a while you want to buy something larger that is not delivered, or move some stuff, or go for a short vacation, or even just drive out of…

A (folding) bicycle can solve a lot of those problems.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#163

Post by nopassrecover »

danweber wrote: post #139
stephengillie wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could it handle Lombard Street? How would it react to a roadway that's covered in several feet of water due to flooding (and poor road design)? Or sinkholes? One-way streets? Freeways which change directions at different times of day? Dirt roads? (Can we make it autonomously offroad?) How will it react during an earthquake or tornado? How will it react to a bicyclist running a red stoplight and into the car's path, w…

Google's algorithm (which Strum seems to be pollinating everywhere -- and good, because the old algorithms were failing DARPA tests) is to pre-map the road. The car knows exactly where it is and what is supposed to be there, which it also compared with what it sees now . How will it react to a bicyclist running a red stoplight and into the car's path, when the car has a green light? It will stop. In fact, the "failur…

Interesting case here for carjackers. You're Google car probably won't floor it in the middle of the night through a red light when an armed gang approaches your car. Then again I guess that's what "manual" is for.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#164

Post by natrius »

nopassrecover wrote: post #163
danweber wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's algorithm (which Strum seems to be pollinating everywhere -- and good, because the old algorithms were failing DARPA tests) is to pre-map the road. The car knows exactly where it is and what is supposed to be there, which it also compared with what it sees now . How will it react to a bicyclist running a red stoplight and into the car's path, when the car has a green light? It will stop. In fact, the "failur…

Interesting case here for carjackers. You're Google car probably won't floor it in the middle of the night through a red light when an armed gang approaches your car. Then again I guess that's what "manual" is for.

Carjacking a car loaded with recording equipment that probably phones home with GPS and other environmental data probably isn't the best idea.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#165

Post by adgar »

danweber wrote: post #136
fl3tch wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of those accidents happen in rain and snow, which the Google folks admit are not as well tested. Under clear conditions on open roads, humans probably do better than 300K miles too.

That doesn't seem right to me. A person driving 10K a year will hit 300,000 miles over the course of 30 years. Does the average person really have less than 1 accident every 30 years? Especially when they are younger?

I put 40k on my first car and hit stuff enough to warrant replacing something - often just a fender etc - at least 5 times. Only one fender bender when I rear ended someone at ~15 mph talking on my phone like an asshole.

I know I'm a worse driver than most. But I also wouldn't say that my similarly young friends average anywhere close to 1 such error per 250k miles. Definitely closer 25k.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#166

Post by tedunangst »

danweber wrote: post #153
sp332 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither is a Google car, though. Adding self-driving requires five figures, probably even in production.

I think $10,000 is a big over-estimate, but even that would be spread out over the life of the car. I'd happily pay $1000 a year to not have to worry about driving.

I'd happily pay $1000 a year for a car that doesn't drive itself.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#167

Post by to3m »

doomslice wrote: post #108
w0utert wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good points. Without any statistics about the frequency and nature of situations where the human driver still has to intervene, numbers like '300K miles without an accident' are meaningless. For all I know the Google cars might have had a near-accident every 10 miles if it weren't for the human driver that's always there to save the AI when it fails. The fact that Google never discloses anything besides mile counts,…

Would you be ok with a computer that augments your own driving (similar to those cars that automatically brake when they sense an accident)? If so, then it's just a matter of continuously improving on this augmentation. Even if it never reaches the level where you can truly step away from the wheel while the computer drives 100 miles in rush hour traffic, attaching an AI to help avoid accidents in many common situati…

We are being promised a self-driving car. Either it drives itself, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, it's not what it claims. And if it does, what are the driving aids for?! That's like wearing a hat indoors.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#168

Post by natrius »

LockeWatts wrote: post #144
imgabe wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to shift a lot of capital that's currently tied up in owning and maintaining cars into other uses. Right now, most cars are only in use for about 5% of their lifetimes. When everybody owns their own private car, those cars spend a lot of time sitting parked. If those cars could drive around and be used by other people who need them on demand, you'd need a lot fewer cars, as well as a lot less parking.

Though this presents a problem in that we're burning through a car 20 time faster, (100% vs 5%). Most cars people own don't last 20 years, so they won't even last a year in the future? There better be some distributed economic system for providing those cars, because that's a large expense. A car right now needs regular maintenance as it is every few months, even if it's just changing the oil. That will go from month…

Carsharing systems are already dealing with these problems successfully.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#169

Post by enraged_camel »

danparsonson wrote: post #119
enraged_camel wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Eating food from a tube could also give us a lot more free time but we don't do it because it is not an enjoyable experience. We not only enjoy the flavors and textures that regular food provides, we also enjoy the rituals that accompany eating. In this regard driving cars is somewhat similar. Yeah, I felt this way for about two weeks after I learned how to drive. After that, it quickly got tedious and boring.

I've been driving for over 10 years and I still enjoy almost every journey - I think autonomous cars are a fantastic idea but I would miss driving if I couldn't ever do it.

I don't think the automation would ever be mandatory. It would be more like auto-pilot, where it would do most of the mundane driving, but let you take over when you want.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#170

Post by ilaksh »

I doubt that there were really no accidents at all or close calls, but even if that is the case, you have to expect some accidents as more and more of these vehicles get out there. But even if there are 1000 accidents in the next 300000 miles or whatever, I hope people are realistic and give the technology time rather than writing it off as soon as a very well-publicized collisions occur.
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