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I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

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Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#151

I get so confused on this. I play around, test, and mess with LLMs all the time and they are miraculous. Just amazing, doing things we dreamed about for decades. I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. It talks to me like a person. It generates really cool images. It helps me write code. And just tons of other stuff that astounds me…

> I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. If you're lucky it figures it out. If you aren't, it makes stuff up in a way that seems almost purposefully calculated to fool you into assuming that it's figured everything out. That's the real problem with LLM's: they fundamentally cannot be trusted because they're just a glorified autocom…

they don't come with any inbuilt sense of when they might be getting things wrong

Spend some time with current reasoning models. Your experience is obsolete if you still hold this belief.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more than happy to pay for access to LLMs, and models continue to get smaller and cheaper. I would be very surprised if they are not far more widely used in 5 or 10 years time than they are today.

None of that means that the current companies will be profitable or that their valuations are anywhere close to justified though. The future could easily be "Open-weight models are moderately useful for some niches, no-name cloud providers charge slightly higher than the cost of electricity to use them at low profit margins".

I think it will go in the opposite direction. Very massive closed-weight models that are truly miraculous and magical. But that would be sad because of all the prompt pre-processing that will prevent you from doing much of what you'd really want to do with such an intelligent machine.

I expect it to eventually be a duopoly like android and iOS. At world scale, it might divide us in a way that politics and nationalities never did. Humans will fall into one of two AI tribes.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#153

I get so confused on this. I play around, test, and mess with LLMs all the time and they are miraculous. Just amazing, doing things we dreamed about for decades. I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. It talks to me like a person. It generates really cool images. It helps me write code. And just tons of other stuff that astounds me…

Look man, and I'm saying this not to you but to everyone who is in this boat; you've got to understand that after a while, the novelty wears off. We get it. It's miraculous that some gigabytes of matrices can possibly interpret and generate text, images, and sound. It's fascinating, it really is. Sometimes, it's borderline terrifying.

But, if you spend too much time fawning over how impressive these things are, you might forget that something being impressive doesn't translate into something being useful.

Well, are they useful? ... Yeah, of course LLMs are useful, but we need to remain somewhat grounded in reality. How useful are LLMs? Well, they can dump out a boilerplate React frontend to a CRUD API, so I can imagine it could very well be harmful to a lot of software jobs, but I hope it doesn't bruise too many egos to point out that dumping out yet another UI that does the same thing we've done 1,000,000 times before isn't exactly novel. So it's useful for some software engineering tasks. Can it debug a complex crash? So far I'm around zero for ten and believe me, I'm trying. From Claude 3.7 to Gemini 2.5, Cursor to Claude Code, it's really hard to get these things to work through a problem the way anyone above the junior dev level can. Almost unilaterally, they just keep digging themselves deeper until they eventually give up and try to null out the code so that the buggy code path doesn't execute.

So when Sabine says they're useless for interpreting scientific publications, I have zero trouble believing that. Scoring high on some shitty benchmarks whose solutions are in the training set is not akin to generalized knowledge. And these huge context windows sound impressive, but dump a moderately large document into them and it's often a challenge to get them to actually pay attention to the details that matter. The best shot you have by far is if the document you need it to reference definitely was already in the training data.

It is very cool and even useful to some degree what LLMs can do, but just scoring a few more points on some benchmarks is simply not going to fix the problems current AI architecture has. There is only one Internet, and we literally lit it on fire to try to make these models score a few more points. The sooner the market catches up to the fact that they ran out of Internet to scrape and we're still nowhere near the singularity, the better.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#154
I am making an effort to use LLMs at work, but in my workflow it's basically just a fancy auto complete. Having a more AI centric workflow could be interesting, but I haven't thought of a good way to rig that up. I'm also not really itching for something to do my puzzles for me. They're what gets me out of bed in the morning.

I haven't tried using LLMs for much else, but I am curious as long as I can run it on my own hardware.

I also totally get having a problem with the massive environmental impact of the technology. That's not AIs fault per se, but its a valid objection.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#155
post #48

The most interesting thing about this post is how it reinforces how terrible the usability of LLMs still is today: "I ask them to give me a source for an alleged quote, I click on the link, it returns a 404 error. I Google for the alleged quote, it doesn't exist. They reference a scientific publication, I look it up, it doesn't exist." To experienced LLM users that's not surprising at all - providing citations, sourc…

This isn't really a problem in tool-assisted LLMs.

Use google AI studio with search grounding. Provides correct links and citations every time. Other companies have similar search modes, but you have to enable those settings if you want good results.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. If you're lucky it figures it out. If you aren't, it makes stuff up in a way that seems almost purposefully calculated to fool you into assuming that it's figured everything out. That's the real problem with LLM's: they fundamentally cannot be trusted because they're just a glorified autocom…

I see this complaint a lot, and frankly, it just doesn't matter. What matters is speeding up how fast I can find information. Not only will LLMs sometimes answer my obscure questions perfectly themselves, but they also help to point me to the jargon I need to use to find that information online. In many areas this has been hugely valuble to me. Sometimes you do just have to cut your losses. I've given up on asking LL…

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Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LLMs are almost perfect for this. It's generally faster than me looking up syntax/documentation, when it's wrong it's easy to tell and correct. Exactly this. I once had a function that would generate several .csv reports. I wanted these reports to then be uploaded to s3://my_bucket/reports/{timestamp}/ .csv I asked ChatGPT "Write a function that moves all .csv files in the current directory to and old_reports direc…

I have been saying this about llms for a while - if you know what you want, how to ask for it, and what the correct output will look like, LLMs are fantastic (at least Claude Sonnet is). And I mean that seriously, they are a highly effective tool for productive development for senior developers. I use it to produce whole classes, large sql queries, terraform scripts, etc etc. I then look over that output, iterate on…

> they are a highly effective tool for productive development for senior developers

I think this is the most important bit many people miss. It is advertised as an autonomous software developer, or something that can take a junior to senior levels, but that's just advertising.

It is actually most useful for senior developers, as it does the grunt work for them, while grunt work is actually useful work for a junior developer as a learning tool.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#159
So many people putting expectations up to knock down about models. Infinite reasons to critique them.

Please dispense with anyone's "expectations" when critiquing things! (Expectations are not a fault or property of the object of the expectations.)

Today's models (1) do things that are unprecedented. Their generality of knowledge, and ability to weave completely disparate subjects together sensibly, in real time (and faster if we want), is beyond any other artifact in existence. Including humans.

They are (2) progressing quickly. AI has been an active field (even through its famous "winters") for several decades, and they have never moved forward this fast.

Finally and most importantly (3), many people, including myself, continue to find serious new uses for them in daily work, that no other tech or sea of human assistants could replace cost effectively.

The only way I can make sense out of anyone's disappointment is to assume they simply haven't found the right way to use them for themselves. Or are unable to fathom that what is not useful for them is useful for others.

They are incredibly flexible tools, which means a lot of value, idiosyncratic to each user, only gets discovered over time with use and exploration.

That that they have many limits isn't surprising. What doesn't? Who doesn't? Zeus help us the day AI doesn't have obvious limits to complain about.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#160
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-cas...

> Eisegesis is "the process of interpreting text in such a way as to introduce one's own presuppositions, agendas or biases". LLMs feel very smart when you do the work of making them sound smart on your own end: when the interpretation of their output has a free parameter which you can mentally set to some value which makes it sensible/useful to you.

> This includes e. g. philosophical babbling or brainstorming. You do the work of picking good interpretations/directions to explore, you impute the coherent personality to the LLM. And you inject very few bits of steering by doing so, but those bits are load-bearing. If left to their own devices, LLMs won't pick those obviously correct ideas any more often than chance.

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