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The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

climate.gov

291–300 of 349 posts

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#291
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Celsius is just as arbitrary a choice as Fahrenheit. It brings nothing extra to the table. You might as well complain that tapered pipe threads are in US inches or that astronomers use AUs and light seconds rather than meters.

In Science, global standards matter. Such as Metric and Celsius.

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Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Celsius is useful if you're a beaker of water. Fahrenheit is useful if you're a human.

Humans cannot reliably determine the difference in one degree c, even though it's bigger... Fahrenheit is too fine grained, and has no interesting points relative to the things I interact with. I freeze an boil water often, however

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Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#294
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were a bunch of headlines last week about DOGE firing half of NOAA then rehiring them. I don’t think you should consider anywhere sacrosanct.

To be fair there have been a bunch of headlines about a great many things, like office closures without mentioning the minor detail that the offices haven’t been used in years, the workforce is remote, and there is no impact on service delivery or staffing. Doesn’t stop journalists from dancing around the implication if it makes the orange man and mars man look bad though.

No one cares about the physical offices. It's NOAA employees along with employees from many offices of the executive branch going on social media to talk about sudden loss of their email access or termination notices with no prior warning that's raising alarms.

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#295
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those people are silent quitting or refusing to go back to work. This applies across the board to these firings/rehirings. Why would anyone go back to work for real when you know you're just gonna be fired again?

> Most of those people are silent quitting or refusing to go back to work. Come on, you know you can't just throw that out. Support your claim.

Or at least obfuscate and mask your claim the same way the Trump administration has learned: “many are saying that most of those people are silent quitting or refusing to go back to work” “and how many of those people are silent quitting or refusing to go back to work?” “there is waste and fraud with people silent quitting or refusing to go back to work”

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#296
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And potentially organized human life collapses

Is that possible? Can you describe the chain of events that would lead to that? Seems vanishingly unlikely to me, on the face of it, but I admit I am not read up on all the possible doomsday scenarios.

There wouldn't be a single factor driving it but a combination of many factors. Loss of coastline (and cities built along it) including greater susceptibility to storms for unaffected areas will obviously have economic costs, highly increased weather and storm variability will be significant (think monsoon rains, "atmospheric river," etc.), increased drought in some areas due to both temperature and weather pattern changes (see western US water rights among the states as the civil portion of this), mass movements of refugees (sure the US can close the southern border, but what happens if you get 50,000 migrants all deciding to come over at once in one area? Are you simply going to shoot all of them?).

Human extinction seems very unlikely, but the collapse of the infrastructure that allows creation of the infrastructure that allows modern life? That could be much more likely, particularly when you factor in military conflicts as well as purely climate-based changes and losses.

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth noting that this "financial crisis" (which I disagree with) has been brought on by Republican governments. Bill Clinton left a budget surplus which is the easiest way to pay down the debt. Secondly, if I had to cut something, the obvious target is the military. (Oh boy, ring on the downvotes there...) But hear me out. Firstly, the adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq cost more than the current debt. With pre…

Thanks to you and GP for a reasoned response. Appropriately taxing the wealthy is 100% something we also need to do and yes, I am skeptical that the current administration will move in that direction. Ditto cuts to the monstrous military industrial complex. I think I’ll refrain from responding to the more inflammatory replies but what really sounded the financial alarm for me personally was this talk [1] given to the…

I think the "hoodwinking" is about the immediacy of the problem, rather than whether it exists or not. Most of the current rhetoric and "efficiency" actions are centered around this idea that we're rapidly approach some near term fiscal cliff that requires action that's drastic in the temporal sense to avoid disaster. No time thinking things through or even following the law, it's a five alarm emergency that requires immediate action! This is where you get ideas like randomly firing new government employees before you even figure out what they do just because they're easier to fire. It doesn't save much money and has a lot of downsides and might not even be legal, but when time is of the essence you could maybe squint and see the argument.

But the reality is that time is not of the essence. Infinitely growing government debt does seem kind of unsuistainble long term, but the scale of the debt combined with the lack of any specific immediate forcing function would seem to favor actions that are drastic in scale but that can be spread over time. In other words the government needs to significantly increase revenue and/or decrease spending, but it doesn't need to do it tomorrow. It's nearly the complete opposite of what's going on now, where making cuts yesterday is considered vastly more important than actually getting to a place where spending and revenue are aligned long term.

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Big corp" will be massively harmed in the medium term, like everyone else. The NIH is critical for the pharma industry, and the USGS is critical for natural resource extraction industries (etc.). Blowing up federal agencies might juice profits for a quarter or two, but even that is pretty questionable/risky. If the whole economy goes into recession, many basic resources obtained from overseas get taxed, retaliatory…

Are you sure the NIH is critical for the pharma industry? Pharma companies generally conclude that replication rates of academic grant funded medical research are so low as to not be worth bothering with. From Amgen: "Over the past decade, before pursuing a particular line of research, scientists (including C.G.B.) in the haematology and oncology department at the biotechnology firm Amgen in Thousand Oaks, California…

It’s rare to find someone argue that confirming only 25% of a massive amount of output enabled only because of the in place system is a good reason to eliminate the system.

It’s kind of like saying “solar panels are only 20% efficient, so are you sure the sun is critical for the solar energy industry?”

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#299
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sorry - the US Federal Forest Science has been a dumpster fire in the Sierra and other areas.. arrogant, wealthy, immovable and it turns out, dangerously misguided plus very willing to enforce their worldview. In another comment there are bitter words about the nature of Monarchy, but it appears that it does not require a Monarchy to get things badly, seriously wrong.

Indeed. In case you've not read it, I suggest this brilliant compilation of interviews about fire management practices of indigenous nations in California; the degree of documented anthrogensis is much higher than I imagined prior to reading. https://tendingthewild.com/tending-the-wild/

great ref, thank you for that one -- there are also considered and really lengthy, public stakeholder workshop papers.. before and around 2017. After the Tubbs fire and a dozen others, it seems more like emergency mode.. probably a lot of on the ground this year, especially Los Angeles but the vast North as well.. dizzying..

Re: The polar vortex is hitting the brakes

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Big corp" will be massively harmed in the medium term, like everyone else. The NIH is critical for the pharma industry, and the USGS is critical for natural resource extraction industries (etc.). Blowing up federal agencies might juice profits for a quarter or two, but even that is pretty questionable/risky. If the whole economy goes into recession, many basic resources obtained from overseas get taxed, retaliatory…

Are you sure the NIH is critical for the pharma industry? Pharma companies generally conclude that replication rates of academic grant funded medical research are so low as to not be worth bothering with. From Amgen: "Over the past decade, before pursuing a particular line of research, scientists (including C.G.B.) in the haematology and oncology department at the biotechnology firm Amgen in Thousand Oaks, California…

To take one single simple example, the mRNA vaccines that saved tens of millions of lives during the Covid pandemic (earning a lot of money for the companies that produced them), and are one of the most promising technologies for many other vaccines, cancer treatments, etc. would have been completely impossible without decades of NIH funding.

Bayer might find individual academic studies to be poor basis for starting new drug development trials, or whatever, but they certainly wouldn't pretend that they can independently replace the entirety of American academic biomedical research, which is substantially dependent on public funding. It's much too large and expensive a task for industry to take on, especially since industry would have to pay much higher salaries to attract the same talent.

You'll see similar in most fields: basic research into interesting curiosities in academic labs does not instantly and immediately lead to new commercial products. But immediate productization is neither the purpose nor motivation of scientific research, and effectively all new product development is completely dependent on having open research as a part of the same global social system: non-commercial labs, substantially funded by public money, find and explore most of the novel phenomena, train nearly all of the researchers including the ones who end up in industry, provide the structure for knowledge sharing like journals and conferences, and so on.

Funding scientific research is among the highest leverage things the US government can do. While many research grants go to projects that fail or don't lead anywhere promising (which is why they rarely get funded by industry), occasionally one of those projects ends up creating huge (sometimes literally trillions of dollars) benefits down the line, with little if any reward accruing to the researcher who did the work, but massive improvement for the whole society.

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