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Career Advice in 2025

lethain.com

71–80 of 185 posts

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#71
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can be as snarky as you want but the reality is we're years deep into a market cycle that has seen a tremendous amount of capex with very little visible return. How much more productive do you think claude makes you as compared to Google or Stack Overflow? 15%? 50%? 200? Do you think that's enough to satisfy the market or are we all trading on unrealistic expectations? Do you think shareholders are going to like…

I don't think companies like Meta, Alphabet or even Amazon are extremely overvalued. Their growth in revenues and earnings is still very solid, so even if A.I is a no show their earnings should continue to do fine (I'd even add Microsoft to the list). Sure stock price might slow down significanty but it can easily add 10% yearly for the forseeable future. Its much less than what we're used to, but its solid growth th…

Actually, all stocks are dead and tech heavy Nasdaq has entered the correction zone this year. It will be a real while before the stocks return to their pre-correction value. The AI hype drivers have lost massive value, hence the desperation will get immense, expect the “AI ready to replace expensive SWE/Lawyer/Entertainers/Creatives” narrative to start any moment now! Of course everything is smoke&mirrors so those will be charged at such premium that the naysayers will not be able to afford it and irrational leaders will buy it and cite immense success to maximise their C level bonuses and will early retire before the tower comes falling down.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#72
post #7

Some more free advice, in no particular order: * Try to get at least one job offer every year, even if you don't accept it. * Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify. * Pick one skill and get very good at it. Spend an hour a day on it for a year. * Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs. * Look for work in major U.S. tech…

On avoiding web dev: I get the concern, but I wouldn't write it off completely. LLMs are changing the game, but they're not replacing deep expertise in architecture, scalability, or understanding real-world business constraints

I don't think they meant architecture, scalability, or understanding real-world business constraints

I think they meant literally web developers, or, aka, frontend folks doing html and css.

I've worked on backend systems that run web sites and apis, for over a decade, and I've never once referred to myself as a web dev. That title has always been frontend specific imo

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#73
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs. What do you mean by web development? Would backend qualify? Would microservices qualify? A complex application is much more than coding.

I'm mostly thinking of frontend dev work, but also some types of light backend work that you might see in a CRUD app. And listen, I've done that work, I've done a lot of it, and I saw that it's mostly a career dead-end, becoming more and more automated/copiloted away. It's not a career moat to be a mid-level React developer. By contrast, some things I think are worth pivoting into include infrastructure, databases, d…

I'm my view, the core of front-end work was always the UI "User Interaction".

Yes some can be solved by designers, but I believe there will still be a big market for designer-programmers.

The programmers that understand design, interaction, pixels and colors will still be of great value.

But if you don't really care about how stuff looks or can't tell a difference between an animation at 25fps vs 50 fps, it is a good sign it is time to try something else.

AI will simply refine your skillset. A backend programmer will have more time to think about architecture, a data engineer/scientist will have more time to think about maths. Or in essence "what am I trying to achieve". And it is up to you to step up to it.

I rather think of this generation with hordes of "coders, writing code" as an anomaly.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#74
post #7

Some more free advice, in no particular order: * Try to get at least one job offer every year, even if you don't accept it. * Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify. * Pick one skill and get very good at it. Spend an hour a day on it for a year. * Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs. * Look for work in major U.S. tech…

> Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs

On the contrary, here in my corner of EU nearly 60% of new jobs are frontend or full stack.

Anything else left is mostly SAP consultant or DevOps.

I think, the whole WebDev is dead end is just false lies to dissuade new entrants. Literally most successful business with a digital solution is web stuff with some automation that would otherwise be ms excel sheets shared via email.

Also this whole panic over LLM is overblown, I know of some brilliant experienced people in other professions like Electronics, Mechatronics, Aerospace, Material Science and literally all of them are finding the job market “very difficult at the moment”. It is the bad global mood in general used deceptively by opportunists to spread false fears of their LLM/AI.

At the end of the day, an insurance seller has hundreds of concerning reasons to convince you why everything is dangerous around you and you really need their product. Now apply that to AI sellers.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#75
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think companies like Meta, Alphabet or even Amazon are extremely overvalued. Their growth in revenues and earnings is still very solid, so even if A.I is a no show their earnings should continue to do fine (I'd even add Microsoft to the list). Sure stock price might slow down significanty but it can easily add 10% yearly for the forseeable future. Its much less than what we're used to, but its solid growth th…

Actually, all stocks are dead and tech heavy Nasdaq has entered the correction zone this year. It will be a real while before the stocks return to their pre-correction value. The AI hype drivers have lost massive value, hence the desperation will get immense, expect the “AI ready to replace expensive SWE/Lawyer/Entertainers/Creatives” narrative to start any moment now! Of course everything is smoke&mirrors so those w…

Correction is one thing but saying "stocks are dead" is hyperbole. Just my poor ass startup is paying Google Cloud around 1 million USD a year to have our operations going. We're quite a cheap company but we're totally dependent on them. And Cloud is a minor part of Google's earnings they have Youtube, Search, Android etc etc. This isn't a bubble, these are real earnings that are probably not going away any time soon. Does it mean Google is bullet proof? No. They may experience a big correction at some point but that has always been the case for all companies.

I can make the same case for Meta, Microsoft, to lesser extent Amazon. I'll leave Tesla aside it's indeed too richly valued.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#76
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an extremely dumb take, I’ve worked on both areas before and I could say that infra work is mostly repeated and needlessly complex config sprayed into git. LLMs have seen enough of that to make head or tails of it by the way you’re characterizing frontend dev.

> This is an extremely dumb take ...ouch! ;) The important part is NOT auto-generating repetitive configs; it's about the effort and skill required to verify that output. On the frontend, we have an easy feedback loop to preview the effects before deploying. That also helps us produce lots of training data for frontend LLM output. On the backend, there is substantial risk with infra changes - you could drop the datab…

You once again seem to be thinking of trivial examples of frontend to say there is an “easy” way to verify the loops. I really wish it were that simple for anything reasonably complex I encountered that were customer-facing — often filled with plugins/apps/micro-frontends/libraries owned by other teams etc or clients. I also think if it were that simple, companies wouldn’t be popping up every now and then trying to solve challenges in this space w.r.t validating flows, interactions/animations are smooth and ensuring some weird stuff isn’t happening across all the browsers the customers of your product are using. But there are a lot of them gunning for a piece of the pie, more since the LLM frenzy. And this is largely just web stuff I’m talking about, I’m sure similar complexity exists for mobile apps if we are to count that also into the equation.

Re: backend risks, I once again think you try to rub this off by equating all of backend development is done the way you’re talking about — to perfection, with backups, tests for those backups and all that. I’m sorry to burst your bubble here but if we’re thinking about the same kind of scrappy development you’re talking for frontend, the backend side is about as bad or worse (given how critical you think all of this is, which I agree with). I doubt the backend engineers are sitting there, carefully reading manuals and crafting code instead of vibecoding.

> You can't just vibe code the infra configs and hope for the best, you need someone who understands the output well enough that they could have written it themselves.

It’s not vibecoding but I’ve seen engineers in this role google, copy-paste and modify configs and scripts that run multi-million dollar workflows which somehow worked at the end of the day. I bet LLMs can do a much better job than that, don’t you?

> It's also much harder to simulate the output of LLM infra changes compared to running a browser, so it's more expensive to get training data to boost the next version of the model's performance.

I disagree. It’s much, much harder to go and debug why your customer on X OS, Y Browser and Z GPU (to simplify) is seeing glitches when others are not. Sometimes that leads you to browser bugs. I am yet to see any AI-loop based tools come close to tackling the kind of real-life, serious prod-driven challenges. If you think running a browser is all it takes, I can say something dumb like “running a container is all it takes” but see how stupid that sounds? :)

And it’s also silly to think UI mistakes don’t have real-world implications. There are countless examples for this already — broken purchase flows resulting in losses, frustrated customers unable to complete their work and leaving apps, incorrect request flows causing small/big DDoS, sometimes even stuff that might lead to lawsuits.

——

I feel you have a bleak view of frontend as a whole or you never worked with teams who do a good job or you have been conned by the chest-thumpers who have been saying for years and YEARS that frontend development is pointless, not real CS and have zero value. Oh, and that JavaScript is not a serious language — classic!

If I saw backend/infra engineering the same way based on the # of devs and teams I had to hand-hold and # of their mistakes I had to help fix while working as a front-end engineer, I’d be shitting on them too. But I know better to see that there’s a right way to do it.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#77
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is an extremely dumb take ...ouch! ;) The important part is NOT auto-generating repetitive configs; it's about the effort and skill required to verify that output. On the frontend, we have an easy feedback loop to preview the effects before deploying. That also helps us produce lots of training data for frontend LLM output. On the backend, there is substantial risk with infra changes - you could drop the datab…

> On the frontend, we have an easy feedback loop to preview the effects before deploying There are many ways to introduce subtle bugs into your system, I don't think the risk is that low in the front end. I'd agree with your take if LLMs were reliable, but they're not - especially on big codebases. A broken form is downtime just like a broken API endpoint, the damage is the same. I understand where you're coming from…

Product work is super important - it's something I care about a lot. I think it's just different from infra work, like comparing woodworking tools to a dump truck. You're going to do a lot of fine-grained feature work with your woodworking tools, and if you scuff something up or break a piece, that's not too disastrous and can be fixed. But the dump truck can, like, destroy your warehouse, throw your inventory on to the highway, or explode. Even if there's a similar error rate in the auto-woodworking-tools to the self-driving-dump-truck, the dump truck's mistakes are too risky.

We should probably also distinguish overall quality from error rate. If the woodworking tools are producing crappy stuff, then there's no reason to use them at all. But if they produce mostly nice stuff, fast, but occasionally break a piece, they might be really useful.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#78
post #2

"decision-makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - Very correct. Whether or not AI actually comes for your job, the fact that enough people at the top think so is enough to cause trouble.

A non-technical friend was asking about the prospects of AI 'taking over' jobs. I told him that I'm less worried about 'Skynet' than I am about 'Slopnet', where bad takes on the applications of 'AI' just make life harder for all of us. That'll come more from decision-maker irrationality than from the tech itself.

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#79
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm mostly thinking of frontend dev work, but also some types of light backend work that you might see in a CRUD app. And listen, I've done that work, I've done a lot of it, and I saw that it's mostly a career dead-end, becoming more and more automated/copiloted away. It's not a career moat to be a mid-level React developer. By contrast, some things I think are worth pivoting into include infrastructure, databases, d…

> infrastructure, databases, data engineering I work as a backend dev, without an opportunity to work on these at my current company. How do I learn and showcase these skills effectively. Thanks!

I highly recommend csprimer for this.

https://csprimer.com/

Or if you want to just use books go with:

https://teachyourselfcs.com/

Re: Career Advice in 2025

#80
post #7

Some more free advice, in no particular order: * Try to get at least one job offer every year, even if you don't accept it. * Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify. * Pick one skill and get very good at it. Spend an hour a day on it for a year. * Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs. * Look for work in major U.S. tech…

> Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs. You had it going well there but then had to ruin it with a take like that. If you’re talking about your trivial, github-filled example scenarios of frontend, sure. But then we could say the same for all other roles, including backend logic that’s regurgitated all the time. Like with everything else, the non-trivial bits need work an…

Except that they’re right, a your “non-trivial bits” will like 5% and rest will be dealing with idiots copy pasting AI slop.
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