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Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

independent.co.uk

171–180 of 185 posts

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#171
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you're being downvoted. None of the wage growth has kept up with inflation, for any quartile of workers. Wages are still down 0.5 to 1.5 % from pre-Covid times adjusted for inflation.

Median real wages are higher than pre-covid: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Do you have a source for your claim that they aren't?

Is that huge spike the stimulus money?

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#172

if we are not going to export dollars, and we are going to make countries spend more of thier own money, then thier cost of borrowing will go up, they will need to rotate out of dollar assets and then traders who use the carry trade will need to unwind them as the source of borrowing (other countries very low interest rates) are no longer very low, as we now see in UK, Germany, and Japan—each hitting very fast highs…

Not knowing much economics, I'm struggling to parse this sentence. ELI5 please?

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#173
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen what was going on when Trump win was confirmed? Stocks that day shot up. Now it is correction time both on going back to indicators instead of hype and correction based on newly elected administration actions instead of people hopes.

I noticed this with Tesla, at a glance it looks like it is in freefall, but it's actually just returned to the relatively stable level it was at before the election. It seems like investors were hoping Elon would be able to leverage his position for some kind of large-scale corruption in Tesla's favor, and are now deciding that isn't going to happen.

Your whole thesis rests on assuming that the price will stay where it just so happened to be at stock market closing yesterday. It's a bit early to say that, don't you think?

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#174
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Migrating employees out of the state (which leeches economic output from the private sector) will have positive long-term economic outcomes.

Moving some employees from government (which has some economic value and some non-economic value) to the much higher economic productivity private sector will be brilliant for the economy long term. But that doesn't mean the most chaotic approach is the best one. Bill Clinton shrunk the federal workforce by 400k without crashing the economy. I'm a huge free market fan but I note that there's a lot of nice things that…

Are you implying that shrinking the federal workforce is responsible for the current stock market correction?

Do you have evidence Musk and Trump are firing the people that keep streets clean and safe, and plan highways?

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#175
post #2

Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…

Belgian here: I'm moving away from US products and services, wherever possible. My close contacts are doing the same. And have you seen the Canadians? They are at another level! Also, buying US military equipment will definitely need to be reconsidered, if you look at how fast your position can switch. Tesla and Starlink, good luck getting any new orders outside of US. This is not some temporary one off, this is part…

I don't think a lot of Americans realize that this might be the real end of the post WW economic/military dominance for the US.

The world has never been less confident in the US. Much of our world dominance was based on protection and inclusion in our economic dominance.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#176
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't realize he can't put he US in Chapter 11.

Yeah, apparently he's talked about "negotiating down the national debt"? [1] How the fuck would that even work? Would he just tell all the Americans holding treasury bills that they're only going to get half of their money back? I think that would completely erode any confidence in the US economy, both domestically and internationally. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps...

Trump pushes the lie that China owns a large amount of our debt.

It's a racist dog whistle.

In reality, most of the US debt is owned by Americans and American businesses.

Renegotiating the US debt would basically rob Americans of money.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#177
post #172

if we are not going to export dollars, and we are going to make countries spend more of thier own money, then thier cost of borrowing will go up, they will need to rotate out of dollar assets and then traders who use the carry trade will need to unwind them as the source of borrowing (other countries very low interest rates) are no longer very low, as we now see in UK, Germany, and Japan—each hitting very fast highs…

Not knowing much economics, I'm struggling to parse this sentence. ELI5 please?

A lot of the value of the USD is that it's the defacto currency for oil and other markets.

Other countries do business in dollars. This makes the dollar valuable as a trade currency. This means large foreign governments like(and need) to hold large amounts of USD.

The confidence in the USD is dropping very quickly, especially in Europe and Asia. This means countries will move to do business in other currencies, as those currencies will be viewed as more stable(or whatever other reason).

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#178
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2023 was Tesla's peak, since than it is going down. Toyota grows year by year.

One year is not indicative. Point of interest will be around 2030-2035, when multiple countries are having aggressive deadlines for EV adaptation. So, the question is will toyota be able adapt to new reality? So far they couldn't, EV attempts failed and they just are milking decade old tech/infra/supply chains. They will need to rebuild manufacturing and support significantly, while tesla has everything in place alre…

Sure but the point is the stock price has little to do with any of that. It’s a meme stock that is regularly pumped with utter bullshit. Just look at what happened today, the King gave it a pump - a full frontal sales pitch TBH - and the stock is up despite all of the actual bad news for the brand.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One year is not indicative. Point of interest will be around 2030-2035, when multiple countries are having aggressive deadlines for EV adaptation. So, the question is will toyota be able adapt to new reality? So far they couldn't, EV attempts failed and they just are milking decade old tech/infra/supply chains. They will need to rebuild manufacturing and support significantly, while tesla has everything in place alre…

Sure but the point is the stock price has little to do with any of that. It’s a meme stock that is regularly pumped with utter bullshit. Just look at what happened today, the King gave it a pump - a full frontal sales pitch TBH - and the stock is up despite all of the actual bad news for the brand.

2% is avg daily stock fluctuation..

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but the point is the stock price has little to do with any of that. It’s a meme stock that is regularly pumped with utter bullshit. Just look at what happened today, the King gave it a pump - a full frontal sales pitch TBH - and the stock is up despite all of the actual bad news for the brand.

2% is avg daily stock fluctuation..

So you think Trumps attempt at a pump failed.
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