Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hah, do you think Trump can admit he messed up and change course?
Depends on which of his various manipulators are most effective.
Still Putin.
Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
151–160 of 185 posts
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#152Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
> they can .. rise just as fast
That's not how confidence scares work though. A panicked flee from the market doesn't end with somebody going "oh it'll be okay", it's a very different buyer trying to buy the dip.
My point is this will be different people, different money, and likely not as fast to return as it leadenly dropped out.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
He doesn't realize he can't put he US in Chapter 11.
Yeah, apparently he's talked about "negotiating down the national debt"? [1] How the fuck would that even work? Would he just tell all the Americans holding treasury bills that they're only going to get half of their money back? I think that would completely erode any confidence in the US economy, both domestically and internationally. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps...
Yes, and it will work, because we’ve got the nukes.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, apparently he's talked about "negotiating down the national debt"? [1] How the fuck would that even work? Would he just tell all the Americans holding treasury bills that they're only going to get half of their money back? I think that would completely erode any confidence in the US economy, both domestically and internationally. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps...
Yes, and it will work, because we’ve got the nukes.
Isn't the majority of US debt held by Americans by means of bonds and treasury bills? I think it's about 2/3 of the total US debt, if I'm reading that right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St...
I would really hope that Trump doesn't start nuking the US.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, apparently he's talked about "negotiating down the national debt"? [1] How the fuck would that even work? Would he just tell all the Americans holding treasury bills that they're only going to get half of their money back? I think that would completely erode any confidence in the US economy, both domestically and internationally. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps...
Yes, and it will work, because we’ve got the nukes.
Well one of the reasons we can be so spendthrift in this country is our financing rates staying so low despite massive amounts of debt. This is due to confidence by global investors and asset managers in the US's economy and ability to pay back its debts.
The US can try to renegotiate or not pay, but that's an overt signal to investors that the US is not reliable and will result in the 10-year Treasury bond rate soaring, probably permanently, which will decimate our country's credit and is an own goal that we probably wouldn't be able to come back from economically.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#156Back paddling on the tariffs without any concessions is more damaging the tariffs themselves. It shows the leadership is uninformed and the economy is very weak. Way to flash your weak hand in the first round.
No, the tariffs wouldve been truly horrendous. Back pedaling is much better.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#157Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
This isn't just about policy uncertainty. Looking at the hard data (Atlanta Fed GDP forecasts, rising delinquency rates on industrial equipment leases, and major retailers' warnings), there are actual economic indicators flashing red. While sentiment certainly matters in markets, we're seeing legitimate signals of weakening fundamentals beyond just reaction to policy shifts. We live in a world that is way more fragmented than it was 5 years ago. The market isn't just responding emotionally - it's pricing in real economic risks.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, and it will work, because we’ve got the nukes.
Isn't the majority of US debt held by Americans by means of bonds and treasury bills? I think it's about 2/3 of the total US debt, if I'm reading that right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St... I would really hope that Trump doesn't start nuking the US.
No, it’s like 1/3 foreign, 1/3 domestic, 1/3 the Fed and other money moving between federal agencies.
Presumably the latter would be a wash. Then of the domestic holdings, a big chunk is state and city holdings. Institutional investors would be mad. Citizens with saving bonds and/or money tied up in t-bills thanks to reddit are a tiny fraction.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think this is completely true. Other than some small portion of companies with weird ownership structure (which the market should have punished but doesn't always) stock ownership is ownership of the business. There's probably a broader participation in the market (re: few people) than most of history, both direct and indirect. That can be good and bad. There's definitely a speculative component but it's noth…
For the volumes your retail investor deals in, the equity rights that come with common stock are negligible to nonexistent. Maybe you get dividends, but you’d get more value from the comped room and buffet at the casino.
But the investors in aggregate have the rights. If you bought a stock that pays dividend then for sure you get dividends.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, and it will work, because we’ve got the nukes.
Well one of the reasons we can be so spendthrift in this country is our financing rates staying so low despite massive amounts of debt. This is due to confidence by global investors and asset managers in the US's economy and ability to pay back its debts. The US can try to renegotiate or not pay, but that's an overt signal to investors that the US is not reliable and will result in the 10-year Treasury bond rate soar…
> The US can try to renegotiate or not pay, but that's an overt signal to investors that the US is not reliable and will result in the 10-year Treasury bond rate soaring
The 10 year rate is not a force of nature. It is set at auction by investors who believe US t-bonds are a safer resting place than those of the economies that were destroyed by the nukes.