What a great time to enter the market!!
Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
121–130 of 185 posts
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Inflation was totally self-inflicted. Both the Trump 2020 and Biden admins went crazy over stimulus when the worst of Covid had already been behind us. Pumping that much free energy into the economy cannot be undone with the simple wave of the austerity wand.
This has been repeatedly debunked. Yes, there was a small amount of money pumped into the consumer economy ($2000/household). Yes, there were some supply shocks during the height of the lockdowns. No, those do not explain the persistent high prices. Unprecedented consolidation across all sectors made it easy for a much smaller group of people at the top to respond to a zeitgeist that expected inflation by keeping pri…
> Yes, there was a small amount of money pumped into the consumer economy ($2000/household).
Covid caused us to print $13 - $16 trillion dollars.
That's more money than every war the US has ever participated in combined.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah yeah. Diagram that out to its conclusion for us. The future where Tesla is producing more cars than Toyota at higher margins. What year will that happen?
> producing more cars than Toyota at higher margins Interesting that Tesla surpassed Toyota in net income in 2023 already: 15B vs 14B.
2023 was Tesla's peak, since than it is going down. Toyota grows year by year.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#124S&P 500 is barely down (~9% as of this post) after returning 23% and 24% respectively in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't call it ugly, as someone who lived through recession.
A major correction also isn't that surprising. I started planning for it six months ago. The current market behavior is what I'd call "in model". It can always get much worse but this isn't that.
As the adage goes, time in market beats timing the market.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#125Back paddling on the tariffs without any concessions is more damaging the tariffs themselves. It shows the leadership is uninformed and the economy is very weak. Way to flash your weak hand in the first round.
He's a pretty objectively terrible businessman. Like, that's the part that annoys me about him more than anything else, how he's convinced a lot of people that he's "good at business". He's not; if he had just dumped the money his father left him into basically any index fund between the 1970's until 2016, he would have made more money than he had in 2016. Any idiot can basically match the S&P500, just buy VOO or SPY…
He inherited billions and still manages to go bankrupt 6 times.
The Apprentice was the OG reality distortion field and it's crazy people have trouble seeing through it all.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#126Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
Belgian here: I'm moving away from US products and services, wherever possible. My close contacts are doing the same. And have you seen the Canadians? They are at another level!
Also, buying US military equipment will definitely need to be reconsidered, if you look at how fast your position can switch. Tesla and Starlink, good luck getting any new orders outside of US.
This is not some temporary one off, this is party moving away from US products (good luck getting us back once we found a good replacement), and party the idea that US can turn on you with a single stupid election.
This damage will take a long time to recover from. We really consider this a friends betrayal.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#127Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
I am not sure I agree that we lack major economic indicators flashing red. For instance, GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed looks quite bad at the moment: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow I also have been looking at deliquency rates on industrial equipment leases lately, and they seem to be trending sharply upward: https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/equipmen... Major retailers are also managi…
Walmart raising alarms as well:
https://www.thestreet.com/retail/walmart-ceo-sounds-alarm-on...
Car loan delinquencies at record level: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquenc...
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
just cutting government spending would automatically put the US into recession, deficit spending is the only thing that has kept things going. Huge amount of job growth is either direct government hiring or indirect through businesses hiring off revenue from government contracts
Historic job growth means nothing if everyone needs 3 jobs to earn median household income.
Three jobs all with floating schedules and zero guaranteed hours of work in a week.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are no major economic indicators flashing red. High levels of corporate monopolization, high levels of stock buybacks, and low to no wage growth. They've been flashing for so long people don't even recognize them anymore.
These aren’t red flags for stock market crashes just red flags for humanity. The status quo can have all these flags raised and still have rising stock prices rise.
Oh. The stock market and humanity are entirely separate? Cool. Let's end the stock market then. Humanity clearly doesn't need it, and it operates in conflict with it.
Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
We've propagandized a generation of people into believing that there has been no wage growth for 40 years when the deal was actually that there were falling wages in the 80s, stagnant wages in the 90s, and growth since then (with a recession after 2008 that has been fully caught back up to since).
And is that wage growth consistent across all quintiles of earners? Or is it primarily concentrated in the upper quintiles? (I actually genuinely do not know the answer to this offhand.)
It's varied a lot in that time period. When people claim that "wages have been stagnant," they're usually referencing this dataset:
https://www.ibtimes.com/infographic-real-wages-production-no...
Which is "real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees," and is the source of the graph that purports to show stagnation between 1973 and 2017 (it has in fact grown higher than 1973 since then).
Why that particular graph? Well, it excludes wages for "the bosses" and such, so perhaps it shows something more like the average person's experience. But also, I think it's cherry-picked because it shows a particularly grim view. For example, here's the real median household income chart instead:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
And you see that it's by no means stagnant.
If you want, you can find income by quintiles. In like the 90's and 2000's, the rise of inequality, top quintile earnings growth was much higher than bottom four. But that largely stopped in the 2010's and has actually reversed in the 2020's, with bottom quintile growth now the strongest.
Long story short: income is complicated, there are a lot of ways to dice everything. But if you look into the claim that "wages have stagnated," you will overwhelmingly see the "real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees" data line. And regardless of how good or bad that particular choice of data is, it doesn't actually show stagnation -- it shows a big drop in the 70s and 80s, largely stagnant 90s, and then growth since then.