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A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

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Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#41

Post by hattmall »

cglace wrote: post #32

The thing I can't wrap my head around is that I work on extremely complex AI agents every day and I know how far they are from actually replacing anyone. But then I step away from my work and I'm constantly bombarded with “agents will replace us”. I wasted a few days trying to incorporate aider and other tools into my workflow. I had a simple screen I was working on for configuring an AI Agent. I gave screenshots of…

There are some fields though where they can replace humans in significant capacity. Software development is probably one of the least likely for anything more than entry level, but A LOT of engineering has a very very real existential threat. Think about designing buildings. You basically just need to know a lot of rules / tables and how things interact to know what's possible and the best practices. A purpose built AI could develop many systems and back test them to complete the design. A lot of this is already handled or aided by software, but a main role of the engineer is to interface with the non-technical persons or other engineers. This is something where an agent could truly interface with the non-engineer to figure out what they want, then develop it and interact with the design software quite autonomously.

I think though there is a lot of focus on AI agents in software development though because that's just an early adopter market, just like how it's always been possible to find a lot of information on web development on the web!

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#43

Post by spaceman_2020 »

cglace wrote: post #32

The thing I can't wrap my head around is that I work on extremely complex AI agents every day and I know how far they are from actually replacing anyone. But then I step away from my work and I'm constantly bombarded with “agents will replace us”. I wasted a few days trying to incorporate aider and other tools into my workflow. I had a simple screen I was working on for configuring an AI Agent. I gave screenshots of…

You’re biased because if you’re here, you’re likely an A-tier player used to working with other A-tier players.

But the vast majority of the world is not A players. They’re B and C players

I don’t think the people evaluating AI tools have ever worked in wholly mediocre organizations - or even know how many mediocre organizations exist

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#44

Post by cheevly »

cglace wrote: post #32

The thing I can't wrap my head around is that I work on extremely complex AI agents every day and I know how far they are from actually replacing anyone. But then I step away from my work and I'm constantly bombarded with “agents will replace us”. I wasted a few days trying to incorporate aider and other tools into my workflow. I had a simple screen I was working on for configuring an AI Agent. I gave screenshots of…

I promise the amount of time, experiments and novel approaches you’ve tested are .0001% of what others have running in stealth projects. Ive spent an average of 10 hours per day constantly since 2022 working on LLMs, and I know that even what I’ve built pales in comparison to other labs. (And im well beyond agents at this point). Agentic AI is what’s popular in the mainstream, but it’s going to be trounced by at least 2 new paradigms this year.

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#45

Post by drysine »

hattmall wrote: post #41
cglace wrote: post #32

The thing I can't wrap my head around is that I work on extremely complex AI agents every day and I know how far they are from actually replacing anyone. But then I step away from my work and I'm constantly bombarded with “agents will replace us”. I wasted a few days trying to incorporate aider and other tools into my workflow. I had a simple screen I was working on for configuring an AI Agent. I gave screenshots of…

There are some fields though where they can replace humans in significant capacity. Software development is probably one of the least likely for anything more than entry level, but A LOT of engineering has a very very real existential threat. Think about designing buildings. You basically just need to know a lot of rules / tables and how things interact to know what's possible and the best practices. A purpose built…

>a main role of the engineer is to interface with the non-technical persons or other engineers

The main role of the engineer is being responsible for the building not collapsing.

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#46

Post by tcoff91 »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #40

The impression I get from using all cutting edge AI tools: 1. Sonnet 3.7 is a mid-level web developer at least 2. DeepResearch is about as good an analyst as an MBA from a school ranked 50+ nationally. Not lower than that. EY, not McKinsey 3. Grok 3/GPT-4.5 are good enough as $0.05/word article writers Its not replacing the A-players but its good enough to replace B players and definitely better than C and D players

A midlevel web developer should do a whole lot more than just respond to chat messages and do exactly what they are told to do and no more.

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#47

Post by cheevly »

csomar wrote: post #25
kiratp wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re not using the best tools. Claude Code, Cline, Cursor… all of them with Claude 3.7.

Nope. I try the latest models as they come and I have a self-made custom setup (as in a custom lua plugin) in Neovim. What I am not, is selling AI or AI-driven solutions.

Perhaps we could help if you shared some real examples of what walls you’re hitting. But it sounds like you’ve already made up your mind.

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#48

Post by cglace »

cheevly wrote: post #44
cglace wrote: post #32

The thing I can't wrap my head around is that I work on extremely complex AI agents every day and I know how far they are from actually replacing anyone. But then I step away from my work and I'm constantly bombarded with “agents will replace us”. I wasted a few days trying to incorporate aider and other tools into my workflow. I had a simple screen I was working on for configuring an AI Agent. I gave screenshots of…

I promise the amount of time, experiments and novel approaches you’ve tested are .0001% of what others have running in stealth projects. Ive spent an average of 10 hours per day constantly since 2022 working on LLMs, and I know that even what I’ve built pales in comparison to other labs. (And im well beyond agents at this point). Agentic AI is what’s popular in the mainstream, but it’s going to be trounced by at leas…

So what is your prediction?

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#49

Post by hattmall »

dartharva wrote: post #7

>At some point there might be massive layoffs due to ostensibly competent AI labor coming onto the scene, perhaps because OpenAI will start heavily propagandizing that these mass layoffs must happen. It will be an overreaction/mistake. The companies that act on that will crash and burn, and will be outcompeted by companies that didn't do the stupid. (IMO) Apart from programmer assistance (which is already happening),…

I see engineering, not software, but the other technical areas that have the biggest threat. High paid, knowledge based fields, but not reliant on interpersonal communication. Secretarial and customer support less so, they aren't terribly high paid and anything that relies on interacting with people is going to meet a lot of pushback. US based call centers is already a big selling point for a lot of companies and chat bots have been around for years in customer support and people hate them and there's a long way to go to change that perception.

Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

#50

Post by randomNumber7 »

colonCapitalDee wrote: post #26

Yeah, I'd buy it. I've been using Claude pretty intensively as a coding assistant for the last couple months, and the limitations are obvious. When the path of least resistance happens to be a good solution, Claude excels. When the best solution is off the beaten track, Claude struggles. When all the good solutions lay off the beaten track, Claude falls flat on its face. Talking with Claude about design feels like ta…

Yes, but on the other hand I don't understand why people think something that you can train something on pattern matching and it magically becomes intelligent.
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