I believe it is high time we come out this madness and reveal the lies of the marketers and grifters of AI for what it is. If AI can replace anyone, it should begin with doctors, they work with rote knowledge and service based on explicit(though ambiguous) inputs, same as an LLM needs, but I still have doctors and wait for hours on end in the waiting room to get prescribed a cough hard candy only to later comeback again because it was actually covid and my doctor had a brain fart.
A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
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Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#12LLMs seem less hyped than block chains were back in the day
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#13i think this is true of ai/ml systems in general. we tend to anthropomorphise their capability curves to match the cumulative nature of human capabilities, where often times the capability curve of the machine is discontinuous and has surprising gaps.
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#14Let's imagine that we all had a trillion dollars. Then we would all sit around and go "well dang, we have everything, what should we do?". I think you'll find that just about everyone would agree, "we oughta see how far that LLM thing can go". We could be in nuclear fallout shelters for decades, and I think you'll still see us trying to push the LLM thing underground, through duress. We dream of this, so the bear cas…
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#15Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#16That is enough for me.
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#17I think all these articles begging the question: what's author's credential to claim these things. Be careful about consuming information from chatters, not doers. There is only knowledge from doing, not from pondering.
I'm generally more skeptical when reading takes and predictions from people working at AI companies, who have a financial interest in making sure the hype train continues. To make an analogy - most people who will tell you not to invest in cryptocurrency are not blockchain engineers. But does that make their opinion invalid?
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#18”People are extending LLMs a hand, hoping to pull them up to our level. But there's nothing reaching back.”
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#19I think all these articles begging the question: what's author's credential to claim these things. Be careful about consuming information from chatters, not doers. There is only knowledge from doing, not from pondering.
I'm generally more skeptical when reading takes and predictions from people working at AI companies, who have a financial interest in making sure the hype train continues. To make an analogy - most people who will tell you not to invest in cryptocurrency are not blockchain engineers. But does that make their opinion invalid?
You cannot lead to truth by learning from people who don't know. People who know can be biased, sure, so the best way to learn is to learn the knowledge, not the "hot-takes" or "predictions".
Re: A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
#20I think all these articles begging the question: what's author's credential to claim these things. Be careful about consuming information from chatters, not doers. There is only knowledge from doing, not from pondering.
The doers produce a new javascript framework every week, claiming it finally solves all the pains of previous frameworks, whereas the chatters pinpoint all the deficiencies and pain points.
One group has an immensely better track record than the other.