Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets • Hacker News Board

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#41

Post by SR2Z » Sun, Mar 09, 2025, 7:21 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #9

danielhep wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure such a prediction is valid in a world post Pax Americana.

That post pax world isn't inbound anytime soon, despite the irrational hysteria going on right now. Trump has 3.x years remaining. People are acting like he's going to remain for decades. There is no next Trump, he has a unique hold over the MAGA base that was key to his election. For now post Pax America is merely a fantasy that reveals a lot about the people that think it's happening now (they're showing their pers…

He has already screamed bloody murder about an election not going his way, and recent Supreme Court decisions about basic stuff (i.e. the government must honor its contractual obligations) have been 5-4.

All it will take is one more SC justice and we'll be in a full blown crisis. Yes, Trump isn't the worst president we've ever had - but he's kind of unique in that he clearly doesn't give a damn about the rule of law or the Republic as a government.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#42

Post by simne » Sun, Mar 09, 2025, 9:08 PM UTC

acdha wrote: post #40

simne wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further Could you provide links to respectable non-subjective sources?

Even before the pandemic, he was slated to significantly increase the deficit. The CBO had predicted $2T in 2017 but even by 2018 they had updated the deficit predictions by several trillion dollars because the Republican spending increases were paired with lower growth in revenue. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vow... This time around, they’re looking a…

> before the pandemic

I'm sorry for misunderstanding, but I sure, asked about current Trump policy, not about nearly 10 years ago.

- 2000s was one case; 2010s was another case; 2020s are totally new case.

And what I really seen on previous Trump, and see now, he is like a burning flame, really looking like he want to do something great.

BTW, if you want to remember pandemic, I remember nearly best was Germany chancellor Merkel, but what make me curios, she retired just few months before Russia began war against Ukraine.

So I want to see considerations relevant for current case. Thank you.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#43

Post by acdha » Sun, Mar 09, 2025, 10:14 PM UTC

simne wrote: post #42

acdha wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even before the pandemic, he was slated to significantly increase the deficit. The CBO had predicted $2T in 2017 but even by 2018 they had updated the deficit predictions by several trillion dollars because the Republican spending increases were paired with lower growth in revenue. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vow... This time around, they’re looking a…

> before the pandemic I'm sorry for misunderstanding, but I sure, asked about current Trump policy, not about nearly 10 years ago. - 2000s was one case; 2010s was another case; 2020s are totally new case. And what I really seen on previous Trump, and see now, he is like a burning flame, really looking like he want to do something great. BTW, if you want to remember pandemic, I remember nearly best was Germany chancel…

You can’t just ignore his first term: not only is that debt still here but the reason this is coming up in every conversation now is that the 2017 tax cuts were justified on two grounds - that greater economic growth would make up for the losses (the opposite happened) and that tax rates would return to previous levels in 2025. That places Republicans in an even harder position because simply preserving the TCJA rates makes it impossible to avoid taking on trillions in new debt and they’re trying to make deeper cuts (see my previous comment). There’s no way to make those numbers work without massive cuts to Medicare and the military, or taking on huge amounts of debt.

They had originally been hoping to make this a problem for whoever became president after Trump’s second term but Biden winning in 2020 means they have to deal with it, or simply pretend they never cared about debt. Currently they’re trying to see if they can get away with new accounting methods to produce better-sounding numbers: https://www.barrons.com/articles/lutnick-government-spending...

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#44

Post by simne » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 12:30 AM UTC

acdha wrote: post #43

simne wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> before the pandemic I'm sorry for misunderstanding, but I sure, asked about current Trump policy, not about nearly 10 years ago. - 2000s was one case; 2010s was another case; 2020s are totally new case. And what I really seen on previous Trump, and see now, he is like a burning flame, really looking like he want to do something great. BTW, if you want to remember pandemic, I remember nearly best was Germany chancel…

You can’t just ignore his first term: not only is that debt still here but the reason this is coming up in every conversation now is that the 2017 tax cuts were justified on two grounds - that greater economic growth would make up for the losses (the opposite happened) and that tax rates would return to previous levels in 2025. That places Republicans in an even harder position because simply preserving the TCJA rate…

> You can’t just ignore his first term

I don't ignore. I just say, if you are programmer you must understand, 10 years is millennia for computers, and federal level is one of most affected fields.

So, if Biden don't use new technologies effectively, does not mean, these technologies are not valuable.

And nobody is better than trio of Musk-Bezos-Zuckerberg in using new technologies, and they agree to cooperate with federal government.

This new pivot is something very special, for some reason, Biden have not such tight relations with independent tech leaders (and Trump on first presidency also failed to do this).

https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/...

So, what I trying to say, President should not do all things himself, this is just direct violation of management best practices (in management such violation named micromanagement). Instead, President should hire best managers and delegate key functions to them, so they will do best possible. And that is what we exactly see now.

For about timing, scientific management also have direct answers - from change tops to begin work need at least two months, plus at least one full month of work. So adequate people with really good understanding, usually considering to see some results after first 100 days of new top executive.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#45

Post by ETH_start » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 1:51 AM UTC

This shift is long overdue. The EU has an economy 10 times larger than Russia's, and yet somehow is dependent on the U.S. to fund its military and its efforts to counter Russia in Ukraine.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#46

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 8:55 AM UTC

sQL_inject wrote: post #13

evolve2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

There's nothing substantive about a comment like this. The US has dominated indices for decades and the amount of money those indices have generated non-US investors is huge. Belief in the US based indices domestically and abroad is still superior, just look at the numbers. The US has a gargantuan debt problem to handle, and reciprocity in tariffs seems far from an 'antic.'

[deleted]

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#47

Post by evolve2k » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 8:59 AM UTC

sQL_inject wrote: post #13

evolve2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

There's nothing substantive about a comment like this. The US has dominated indices for decades and the amount of money those indices have generated non-US investors is huge. Belief in the US based indices domestically and abroad is still superior, just look at the numbers. The US has a gargantuan debt problem to handle, and reciprocity in tariffs seems far from an 'antic.'

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The US is actively stopping honouring its international engagements and relations. It’s already starting to have an effect. Confidence once lost is hard to regain the same goes for trust.