Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 47 posts

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#31

Post by netsharc »

adventured wrote: post #9
danielhep wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure such a prediction is valid in a world post Pax Americana.

That post pax world isn't inbound anytime soon, despite the irrational hysteria going on right now. Trump has 3.x years remaining. People are acting like he's going to remain for decades. There is no next Trump, he has a unique hold over the MAGA base that was key to his election. For now post Pax America is merely a fantasy that reveals a lot about the people that think it's happening now (they're showing their pers…

If I were to bet between Dems being able to return in 2028, or the entire MAGAified (and DOGEified) system being rigged to put Vance (or some other couchfucker) there, I'd bet the latter.

Is voter disfranchisement a thing? Will the US have more of it? Will the "activist judges" brought in by the MAGA party let it happen? All of the above?

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#32

Post by fullshark »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #2

Wild times we live in. Trying to explain to my adult daughter where to invest her retirement savings ... looking like foreign stocks (VXUS) are not a bad idea after all.

It was never a bad idea, chasing trends based on vague "articles" like this is a bad idea though.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#33

Post by mystified5016 »

thecopy wrote: post #25
DaedPsyker wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see MAGA surviving post Trump. I'd say it will morph, and elements will remain in the republican party but not intact. Trump is a huge magnetising force but without him, it doesn't really have anyone else. Sure people like Vance will try to further their own ambition but none of them will succeed in taking on the mantle and keeping it as the force is today.

>elements will remain in the republican party but not intact But everyone in a position in power and/or leadership is presumably MAGA now? Who will they promote within the party?

There's no shortage of human scum to choose from. Vance is fairly popular, afaict

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#34

Post by jdlshore »

Salgat wrote: post #11
jdlshore wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A balanced strategy is best. I use the advice in A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which is a mix of real estate (VGSLX), bonds (VBTLX), and stocks, with the stocks split 50/50 between US (VTSAX) and international (VTIAX and VEMAX). I was prepared to take a bath after seeing the news this past week, but I’m actually up a bit—VTSAX is down, but the others are all up.

The gains from VTSAX over the past 5 years are so high that it would have to permanently drop by 50% to match international indexes like VTIAX.

The point of passive investing and a balanced strategy is that you can’t predict what will happen. So, yes, the past five years were good for VTSAX. But if you’re investing today, then it’s the next five years that matter, not the past five years, and nobody can predict what will happen.

(Well, to be more accurate, some fund managers will predict correctly, but you can’t predict which ones. Just like you know ~50 out of 100 coins will land heads, but you can’t predict which ones, not even if you choose the one that landed heads in the last 6 throws.)

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#35

Post by jdlshore »

atombender wrote: post #29
jdlshore wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A balanced strategy is best. I use the advice in A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which is a mix of real estate (VGSLX), bonds (VBTLX), and stocks, with the stocks split 50/50 between US (VTSAX) and international (VTIAX and VEMAX). I was prepared to take a bath after seeing the news this past week, but I’m actually up a bit—VTSAX is down, but the others are all up.

Note that a market-cap-weighted total market index fund like VTSAX will have a fair amount of real estate (currently about 4%). This means that if you combine VTSAX and VGSLX, you end up overweighting real estate. If you also own a home, you're further overweighting that asset class. Such a strategy might make sense if you think real estate will outperform non-real-estate stocks in the long run (which, if you believe…

Great points, thank you. I’ll check out that video.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#36

Post by acdha »

simne wrote: post #24
lovich wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term. Can you stop lying to yourself and to our faces? How can you claim that a this is 1: temporary 2: if it is temporary this is a good thing because it will make debt repayments easier 3: (the part y…

I have interest and hard question for you. Please read carefully and answer very seriously. 1. It is obvious, Trump moves lead to shrink federal govt spending and with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes. 2. It is obvious, after market shrink could be great grow, because market economy tends to expansion, and it will be even better because lowered debt. 3. It is not so obvious, but after great…

> with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes.

Lowering taxes for at least some people is a given, but he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further. Serious deficit reduction is not a “high probability” without some convincing reversal.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#37

Post by Salgat »

jdlshore wrote: post #34
Salgat wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gains from VTSAX over the past 5 years are so high that it would have to permanently drop by 50% to match international indexes like VTIAX.

The point of passive investing and a balanced strategy is that you can’t predict what will happen. So, yes, the past five years were good for VTSAX. But if you’re investing today, then it’s the next five years that matter, not the past five years, and nobody can predict what will happen. (Well, to be more accurate, some fund managers will predict correctly, but you can’t predict which ones. Just like you know ~50 out…

I'd still stay with VTSAX if you're investing long term given the 8% expected long term returns.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#38

Post by Amezarak »

DaedPsyker wrote: post #18
thecopy wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there is no reason to believe that 1. GOP has been MAGA for 10 years. 2. The electorate elected him again, even after being a felon, even after 6th Jan. What is the reason to assume it _will_ change?

I don't see MAGA surviving post Trump. I'd say it will morph, and elements will remain in the republican party but not intact. Trump is a huge magnetising force but without him, it doesn't really have anyone else. Sure people like Vance will try to further their own ambition but none of them will succeed in taking on the mantle and keeping it as the force is today.

I don't think anyone in 2014, let alone 2013, predicted Trump would be the leader of the Republican party in 2016. It seems a little early to make the call that nobody will fill the vacuum between now and 2028.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#39

Post by simne »

acdha wrote: post #36
simne wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have interest and hard question for you. Please read carefully and answer very seriously. 1. It is obvious, Trump moves lead to shrink federal govt spending and with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes. 2. It is obvious, after market shrink could be great grow, because market economy tends to expansion, and it will be even better because lowered debt. 3. It is not so obvious, but after great…

> with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes. Lowering taxes for at least some people is a given, but he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further. Serious deficit reduction is not a “high probability” without some convincing reversal.

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further

Could you provide links to respectable non-subjective sources?

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#40

Post by acdha »

simne wrote: post #39
acdha wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes. Lowering taxes for at least some people is a given, but he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further. Serious deficit reduction is not a “high probability” without some convincing reversal.

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further Could you provide links to respectable non-subjective sources?

Even before the pandemic, he was slated to significantly increase the deficit. The CBO had predicted $2T in 2017 but even by 2018 they had updated the deficit predictions by several trillion dollars because the Republican spending increases were paired with lower growth in revenue.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vow...

This time around, they’re looking at additional tax cuts which would only increase the deficit rate. We don’t have a final plan yet but there’s no sign of willingness needed to restore tax rates to anything like previous levels, which is the only way to make the math work:

https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-outlook-treasury-26b1f...

> Trump’s proposed extension of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire after this year along with new cuts could easily exceed $4 trillion

Post reply on HN