How to know when it's time to go

They all knew that they had to leave because they were feeling miserable but they didn't because they were scared of not being able to find a job elsewhere. What didn't help was that management threw just enough money at those who're perceived to be performing well and made it even harder for them to leave.

Eventually layoffs happened. Almost all of them ended up finding better work conditions and substantially higher salaries elsewhere except for the most senior ones who have been around for a long time. The problem with the very senior (staff +) engineers is mostly only a salary problem because (relatively) they have been too loyal and don't have the track record to convince people that they are worth as much as they claim they do. The problem is that the longer you stay, the more this is a problem -- so if you see somewhere that you can take a small pay cut to get the opportunity to grow and be happier and have more room to grow, you probably should start trying now.

I can't comment much about your situations but at least in my country engineers are relatively well-paid -- yet people still hesitate to leave because of family, or mortgage or... whatever reasons they can come up with. Those are usually just excuses in my opinion -- nobody is asking you to ditch everything today without a plan. There is certainly a chance that you can get a job elsewhere and end up not passing probation, but that's up for you to gauge.

At the end of the day there is really nothing stopping you from trying except for yourself and irrational thoughts. Staying at the same job for too long is a risk in itself, it doesn't stop them from giving you a month of notice now and you'll be gone next month -- it doesn't matter if you're hardworking or if you think you know some parts of the system better than anyone. No matter how hard you try, emotions do leak slowly over time even if you're very careful to not show them, so be careful about that too.

It may sound harsh but if it has been going on for a long time and you are not willing to take (calculated) risks and make small, temporary sacrifice for a potentially better future, you are basically just victimizing yourself.

Start by applying for jobs and interview. If you think this management will likely get rid of you because of AI then that's more reason to go somewhere else that may value you more. Nobody knows how well AI will get compared to any of us, but if you're worried now then do something about it: expand your skill set horizontally, actually look for other opportunities regularly, _connect_ with people so that you're not just a number on a payroll, etc.

I wish you all the best and find meaning and hope in what you do soon!

I hear the comment about coming home too tired to enjoy one’s own time. That happens to me even now, in a fulfilling job. I often feel too tired to even play a video game (it doesn’t help that many games feel like work). The only solution I’ve found to that particular problem is to find a different job. Fortunately, in my current job, it does not happen often enough that I am willing to give it up just yet. And I still see a path (and progress) toward my goals in my current job.

That's a wonderfully succinct way of putting it. We've lost sight of what the economy is for, or maybe we've never had it nailed.

Dead jobs can be fine. I've done brain dead system administration for 3 days a week with a 4 day weekend. My bills were paid. I have a more stressful higher paying job now but it wasn't worth it; the new car is nice but on the whole I would've been better off driving a beater and having the time and energy to live life on my own terms. I think that's why I'm doing it in the first place.

This is a really, really good problem to have. In my opinion, you should look for fulfillment elsewhere in life.

Hedonism is a dead end. The best way is to make up some higher meaning for oneself, be it creating a better world, raising a child, spirituality, being an artist or whatever. You concerns should be bigger than yourself but still manageable.