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Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

reuters.com

21–30 of 47 posts

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

There's nothing substantive about a comment like this. The US has dominated indices for decades and the amount of money those indices have generated non-US investors is huge. Belief in the US based indices domestically and abroad is still superior, just look at the numbers. The US has a gargantuan debt problem to handle, and reciprocity in tariffs seems far from an 'antic.'

That belief was based on a lot of suppositions like the gold in Fort Knox being there(had that fight with Europe already and resolved it until recently), the backing of NATO allies, the backing of long term allies like Canada and Britain who we have threatened with annexation and referenced as losers militarily, respectively in the past month, or even basic rule of law in line with our own systems.

We have become a source of absolute chaos and until we settle down into an understandable and, critically, stable set of behaviors three is no belief in us.

You can’t rely on past behavior as a source of trust for counter parties when you are simultaneously telling those counter parties that every agreement you enter into is worth nothing upon tomorrow.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure such a prediction is valid in a world post Pax Americana.

That post pax world isn't inbound anytime soon, despite the irrational hysteria going on right now. Trump has 3.x years remaining. People are acting like he's going to remain for decades. There is no next Trump, he has a unique hold over the MAGA base that was key to his election. For now post Pax America is merely a fantasy that reveals a lot about the people that think it's happening now (they're showing their pers…

There is no next Trump, there will be a next Putin. America will be poor. You cannot rule out it will be in expansion wars.

It is not about MAGA, they were a tool, they are not critical anymore. You are looking at a new fascist rule, with complete state capture. It is not completely done yet, and there is still a change the coup will fail. But people are complying out of fear, the military leadership has been purged and cleansing is still going on everywhere. So the window of opportunity is closing.

Do not focus on Trump. He is a Chaos Actor and he will be disposed of when he can't deliver of is not needed anymore.

  >  post Pax America is merely a fantasy
I recommend reading the news, preferably outside of the USA.

  > they're showing their personal preference
This is an example of a binary belief trap.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#23
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there is no reason to believe that 1. GOP has been MAGA for 10 years. 2. The electorate elected him again, even after being a felon, even after 6th Jan. What is the reason to assume it _will_ change?

I don't see MAGA surviving post Trump. I'd say it will morph, and elements will remain in the republican party but not intact. Trump is a huge magnetising force but without him, it doesn't really have anyone else. Sure people like Vance will try to further their own ambition but none of them will succeed in taking on the mantle and keeping it as the force is today.

It really does seem to be a cult of personality. I'm hopeful that it dies with Trump, but I guess we will see.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#24
post #20

Sensationalist headline. The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

> The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term. Can you stop lying to yourself and to our faces? How can you claim that a this is 1: temporary 2: if it is temporary this is a good thing because it will make debt repayments easier 3: (the part y…

I have interest and hard question for you. Please read carefully and answer very seriously.

1. It is obvious, Trump moves lead to shrink federal govt spending and with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes.

2. It is obvious, after market shrink could be great grow, because market economy tends to expansion, and it will be even better because lowered debt.

3. It is not so obvious, but after great wars, like in Ukraine now, appear large demographic problems, so significant grow could begin only after demography will return to health state.

So questions are:

1. Do you think, Trump administration could so much affect demography, so it could brake market down? How this could be done in US?

2. If you are not considering significant demographic problems, please explain, from where you considering market brake?

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#25
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there is no reason to believe that 1. GOP has been MAGA for 10 years. 2. The electorate elected him again, even after being a felon, even after 6th Jan. What is the reason to assume it _will_ change?

I don't see MAGA surviving post Trump. I'd say it will morph, and elements will remain in the republican party but not intact. Trump is a huge magnetising force but without him, it doesn't really have anyone else. Sure people like Vance will try to further their own ambition but none of them will succeed in taking on the mantle and keeping it as the force is today.

>elements will remain in the republican party but not intact

But everyone in a position in power and/or leadership is presumably MAGA now? Who will they promote within the party?

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That post pax world isn't inbound anytime soon, despite the irrational hysteria going on right now. Trump has 3.x years remaining. People are acting like he's going to remain for decades. There is no next Trump, he has a unique hold over the MAGA base that was key to his election. For now post Pax America is merely a fantasy that reveals a lot about the people that think it's happening now (they're showing their pers…

There is no next Trump, there will be a next Putin. America will be poor. You cannot rule out it will be in expansion wars. It is not about MAGA, they were a tool, they are not critical anymore. You are looking at a new fascist rule, with complete state capture. It is not completely done yet, and there is still a change the coup will fail. But people are complying out of fear, the military leadership has been purged…

I mean it was all laid out in front of everyone...

https://www.project2025.observer

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#27
post #24
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term. Can you stop lying to yourself and to our faces? How can you claim that a this is 1: temporary 2: if it is temporary this is a good thing because it will make debt repayments easier 3: (the part y…

I have interest and hard question for you. Please read carefully and answer very seriously. 1. It is obvious, Trump moves lead to shrink federal govt spending and with high probability could shrink national debt and lower taxes. 2. It is obvious, after market shrink could be great grow, because market economy tends to expansion, and it will be even better because lowered debt. 3. It is not so obvious, but after great…

Sorry, I made typo: meaning dawn, not down. But questions still same.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#29
post #5

Wild times we live in. Trying to explain to my adult daughter where to invest her retirement savings ... looking like foreign stocks (VXUS) are not a bad idea after all.

A balanced strategy is best. I use the advice in A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which is a mix of real estate (VGSLX), bonds (VBTLX), and stocks, with the stocks split 50/50 between US (VTSAX) and international (VTIAX and VEMAX). I was prepared to take a bath after seeing the news this past week, but I’m actually up a bit—VTSAX is down, but the others are all up.

Note that a market-cap-weighted total market index fund like VTSAX will have a fair amount of real estate (currently about 4%). This means that if you combine VTSAX and VGSLX, you end up overweighting real estate. If you also own a home, you're further overweighting that asset class.

Such a strategy might make sense if you think real estate will outperform non-real-estate stocks in the long run (which, if you believe the Boglehead school of passive index investing, you shouldn't), or if you think the real estate market is not correlated with the stock market (which isn't the case), of course.

Ben Felix has a good video about it [1].

A 50/50 split between US and international means you're overweighting international. By market cap, the US is about 60% of the world and ex-US is 40%. (Around 1990 ago it was 30% US, 70% ex-US.) If you want a "passive" approach, the solution is to buy VTWAX (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares), or its ETF version, VT.

[1] https://youtu.be/IzK5x3LlsUU?si=DK6AfUi_8GvroO-R

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#30

Sensationalist headline. The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

The headline is what people want to read but has little to do with reality.

My non-US positions have done shockingly nothing the past few years.

Chinese equities were practically being given away a year ago.

At some point there was going to be rotation but believe what you want. Of course, news headlines about the market are never wrong!

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