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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#21

Post by taneq »

only-one1701 wrote: post #19
aresant wrote: post #4

Thematically investing billions into startup AI frontier models makes sense if you believe in first-to-AGI likely worth a trillion dollars + Investing in second/third place likely valuable at similar scales too But outside of that MSFTs move indicates that frontier models most valuable current use case - enterprise-level API users - are likely to be significantly commoditized And likely majority of proceeds will be c…

What even is AGI? Like, what does it look like? Genuine question.

It's whatever computers can't do.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#22

Post by only-one1701 »

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology.

I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the documentation for the current major version of Angular wasn't nearly good enough to meet this stated goal. My TL at the time laughed and said the person who spearheaded that initiative was already living large in their mansion on the hill and didn't give a flying f about the fate of Angular now.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#23

Post by lwansbrough »

only-one1701 wrote: post #19
aresant wrote: post #4

Thematically investing billions into startup AI frontier models makes sense if you believe in first-to-AGI likely worth a trillion dollars + Investing in second/third place likely valuable at similar scales too But outside of that MSFTs move indicates that frontier models most valuable current use case - enterprise-level API users - are likely to be significantly commoditized And likely majority of proceeds will be c…

What even is AGI? Like, what does it look like? Genuine question.

An AI agent with superhuman coherence that can run indefinitely without oversight.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#24

Post by only-one1701 »

lwansbrough wrote: post #23
only-one1701 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What even is AGI? Like, what does it look like? Genuine question.

An AI agent with superhuman coherence that can run indefinitely without oversight.

People sincerely think we're < 5 years away from this?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#25

Post by echelon »

strangescript wrote: post #7

I think they have realized that even if OpenAI is first, it won't last long so really its just compute at scale, which is something they already do themselves.

There is no moat in models (OpenAI).

There is a moat in infra (hyperscalers, Azure, CoreWeave).

There is a moat in compute platform (Nvidia, Cuda).

Maybe there's a moat with good execution and product, but it isn't showing yet. We haven't seen real break out successes. (I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost.)

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#27

Post by rafaelmn »

I'd be willing to bet that the largest use of LLMs they have is GitHub copilot and Claude should be the default there.

OpenAI has not been interesting to me for a long time, every time I try it I get the same feeling.

Some of the 4.5 posts have been surprisingly good, I really like the tone. Hoping they can distill that into their future models.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#28

Post by lm28469 »

aresant wrote: post #4

Thematically investing billions into startup AI frontier models makes sense if you believe in first-to-AGI likely worth a trillion dollars + Investing in second/third place likely valuable at similar scales too But outside of that MSFTs move indicates that frontier models most valuable current use case - enterprise-level API users - are likely to be significantly commoditized And likely majority of proceeds will be c…

Short term betting on AGI from current LLMs is like if you betted on V10 F1s two weeks after we invented the wheel

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#29

Post by skepticATX »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

Listening to Satya in recent interviews I think makes it clear that he doesn’t really buy into OpenAI’s religious-like view of AGI. I think the divorce makes a lot of sense in light of this.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#30

Post by keeganpoppen »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

oh it is absolutely about that
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