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A few words about FiveThirtyEight

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Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard this my entire life, too. However, having lived more places than just California, I see California as having undue influence on the entire country. Prop 65 warnings pop up on things outside of California. I've even seen stuff labeled as CARB outside of California. These are trivial examples, but both of those things are California legalities. If Louisiana had undue influence on the US, more packaging would…

I think prop 65 warnings are about the worst example of undue political influence. Companies do this outside the state on a completely voluntary basis. Their adoption in other states completely bypasses the national legislature due to the real world economic power of the Califonia market. They dictate external behavior by regulating their internal market. What part of this is undue? States and individuals should have…

The joke in California is that everything both causes and cures cancer. Because of all the hippies, and the generally massive concentration of people. If someone accidentally dumps a ton(2000lbs) of lead in podunk, nebraska, it might affect 10 people. it might affect 100. That same ton of lead on Sepulveda Blvd in the basin would affect millions. So i get prop 65, i get "CARB" - in california you want small engine exhaust to guarantee no sparks, because California is a tinderbox. I gave those two examples to show that i understand that things can have nuance and be good for the general public.

Uh, i am unsure if i used "affect" correctly. Substitute "effect" if i used it wrong.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people who don't live in Los Angeles might be curious why their neighbors suddenly switched to voting red. why is everyone assuming that i'm not intelligent enough to know that "land doesn't vote"? The county voting maps are a proxy .

Because they’re a meaningless proxy?

it tells you that your neighbors voted for trump, and we might ask why. It isn't meaningless, if you live in a historically "blue" county and it went red, why did it go red?

I understand that counties can have various sub-regions and cultures and all of that, but not every county does. there's 3300 counties, and people live in all of them. Knowing that your neighbors voted for Trump might incline introspection.

at least that's what i hoped i could point out. Apparently shoot the messenger!

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#123
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we have? It's pointless. As the GP said, land doesn't vote. The more interesting map is the one where you weight the display by population, since it gives a much more accurate representation of how the USA is divided: https://engaging-data.com/pages/scripts/d3Electoral/countyel... The tool on that website is actually pretty informative to play with if you want to quickly see how adjusting the map style can…

Bit of a tangent, but I've always wondered why the United States has a very clear dividing line between the populated east and relatively empty west. It's really visible in the first map you shared. Is there a historical reason behind that line? Or some geographical boundary?

It is a function of both geography and history, both based on water. The line you are seeing in the east is the rain shadow of the Rocky mountains.

Moving east from California, you have the great basin desert, followed by the Rocky Mountains, and then the relatively dry great plains.

Population follows precipitation.

https://gisgeography.com/us-precipitation-map/

https://www.thoughtco.com/geography-shapes-us-regional-weath...

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#124
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> by whom? Well, both by the majority of the drafters of the US Constitution, and the majority of the drafters of the Australian Constitution. And the authors of the German Constitution – the German upper house, the Bundesrat, represents the German states (Länder), and although (unlike the Australian and US Senates) it does give more populous states a greater number of seats, the number of seats is still out of propo…

> the German upper house, the Bundesrat, represents the German states (Länder), and although (unlike the Australian and US Senates) it does give more populous states a greater number of seats, the number of seats is still out of proportion to population: in Bremen there are 223,830 people per a seat, compared to 2,977,586 people per a seat in North Rhine-Westphalia. To be fair, though, in the US, the House also has u…

> To be fair, though, in the US, the House also has unfortunate proportional-representation anomalies, too, because the total number of Representatives has not changed in over a century. See Wyoming vs. California for an illustrative example.

This is not unique to the US either. Section 24 of the Australian constitution guarantees each "Original State" [0] a minimum of five seats in the House of Representatives. On a population basis, Tasmania should only have 3 seats, but due to this clause they have 5 instead. This means Tasmania gets one seat per 114,240 electors, compared to one per 179,021 for NSW. This means Tasmania's seats-per-population in the House is 1.576 times that of NSW.

This is actually more disproportionate than the US House – Wyoming gets 1 Representative for 587,618 people, California gets 1 per 758,269 people – hence Wyoming's seats-per-population is only 1.290 times that of California. (Australian politicians have significantly fewer voters electing them, but that's almost inevitable with a population over 13 times smaller than the US – although consider Ireland, who have 174 seats in their lower house, but only 5.308 million people, meaning each TD only represents 30,000 people – that would be like Australia's House having 888 members, or the US House having over 11,000; if the US House had Australian-sized districts, it would have around 2000 members)

One difference is the size of the US House is at the discretion of Congress, so by increasing the size of the House, they could reduce the disproportionality. That is not possible in Australia without a constitutional amendment [1] since the Australian constitution requires the House to be "as nearly as practicable" twice the size of the Senate. Since the Senate has six states with 12 senators each, for 72 senators (plus 4 territory senators, but the High Court has ruled they don't count for this purpose), the House must be "as nearly as practicable" twice 72, which is 144 members. Currently the House has 151 members – but the 5 territory representatives don't count for this calculation, which brings us down to 146, which is "as nearly as practicable" to the required 144. The phrase "as nearly as practicable" lacks a precise definition, but it would seem any deviation big enough to significantly impact proportionality is likely to be ruled unconstitutional, while the small deviations (a handful of seats) that have thus far gone unchallenged are unlikely to make much of a difference to it. One method which wouldn't require a constitutional amendment would be to significantly increase the number of states, by splitting the existing six states into multiple parts, which in turn could significantly increase the size of the Senate and hence the House – but that is even less likely than a constitutional amendment is.

[0] an "Original State" means a state at the time of the Australian constitution's enactment. Australia currently has six states, all of which are Original States – like the US, the Australian constitution has a procedure to admit new states, but unlike the US, that procedure has thus far never been used

[1] the procedure for amending the Australian constitution is very different from that of the US – a national referendum, with both a majority nationwide, and a state-wide majority in a majority of states. What it has in common with the US constitution, is being very difficult to amend in practice – because most attempts to change the Australian constitution end up failing to pass the referendum

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what's interesting, is instead of discussing what i said prior to the link, you chose to instead try and make me feel bad for linking a video. Others had already rebutted your assertion at least as well as I could, so I didn't feel the need to repeat what had already been offered. However, given your initial rationale: >>note: not clicking that because you disagree with me is really doing yourself a disservice. was…

Okay. have it your way. The thought that the vote was "real close to 50-50" and "trump didn't get a majority of the vote" and "therefore we just need to do what we're doing and it'll work out OK in 2028 and the midterms" is what the video clip i linked was talking to. Specifically, nearly every reply to my comment, other than yours, argued that "the number of counties that switched" is irrelevant, as if that happened…

>The thought that the vote was "real close to 50-50" and "trump didn't get a majority of the vote"

Yes. Both of those things are true. Other folks correctly mentioned that.

>and "therefore we just need to do what we're doing and it'll work out OK in 2028 and the midterms" is what the video clip i linked was talking to.

Who said that? Not me. Not anyone else on this thread.

Rather, various folks rebutted[0][5][6] your assertion (whether you're quoting some rando or not) that "there absolutely is a mandate." Which is a ridiculous statement, as the current incumbent only received 1.5% more votes than his opponent. That's not a mandate, that's a squeaker.

What would constitute a mandate? Contrast the results with the 1972, 1984 or 1996 elections, which actually conveyed a mandate. Go ahead and compare the results of those elections (definitely mandate elections) with the 2024 presidential election where[4]:

   Trump won the Electoral College with 312 electoral votes, 
   while Harris received 226...

   Trump won the national popular vote with a plurality of 
   49.8%.
1972: "President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic Senator George McGovern in a landslide victory. With 60.7% of the popular vote, Richard Nixon won the largest share of the popular vote for the Republican Party in any presidential election.[1] Nixon also won 49 of the 50 states.

1984: "Reagan won re-election in a landslide victory, carrying 525 electoral votes, 49 states, and 58.8% of the popular vote. Mondale won 13 electoral votes: 10 from his home state of Minnesota, which he won by a narrow margin of 0.18% (3,761 votes), and 3 from the District of Columbia, which has always voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate."[2]

1996: "Clinton defeated Dole by a wide margin, winning 379 electors to Dole's 159 and taking 49.2% of the national popular vote to Dole's 40.7%."[3]

As you can see, 1.5% is a tiny margin compared with real mandate elections. So your youtube/The View rando is flat wrong about a mandate for Trump.

Which says nothing at all about future elections or election strategies for the Democratic Party. You're trying to put words in the mouths of others. Please stop.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43276767

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_presidentia...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidentia...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidentia...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia...

[5] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43276365

[6] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43276669

Edit: Completed my comment. Apologies for any confusion after inadvertently posting an incomplete comment. Clarified prose too.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. have it your way. The thought that the vote was "real close to 50-50" and "trump didn't get a majority of the vote" and "therefore we just need to do what we're doing and it'll work out OK in 2028 and the midterms" is what the video clip i linked was talking to. Specifically, nearly every reply to my comment, other than yours, argued that "the number of counties that switched" is irrelevant, as if that happened…

>The thought that the vote was "real close to 50-50" and "trump didn't get a majority of the vote" Yes. Both of those things are true. Other folks correctly mentioned that. >and "therefore we just need to do what we're doing and it'll work out OK in 2028 and the midterms" is what the video clip i linked was talking to. Who said that? Not me. Not anyone else on this thread. Rather, various folks rebutted[0][5][6] your…

again, i was quoting THE VIEW, which is a left leaning news and entertainment program. Arguing with me about whether or not there is a mandate is silly, as, in my first comment, put those words in quotation marks which means i was directly quoting someone - and then i linked the video i grabbed the quote from.

How many minutes did you spend writing all of this to me? The video i linked is less than 5 minutes long and it answers "rebuttals" you or anyone else has said.

you stop. :-)

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#127
post #24

As someone who was super interested in the 538-style of election coverage in 2008, I've kind of fallen "out of love" so to speak with election models and forecasting in general. I'm not really convinced about what it adds to the conversation around elections. We can all look at various polls and get an assessment of who is generally ahead. Weighted polling aggregators and forecasting models just collect all these pol…

>if no matter what the result, we can always just say "the candidate who won could always have won given the forecast" - what are we really adding to the conversation here?

When the "upset" candidate wins, it will have been statistically likely. Yes. What they're adding are error bars in the collective consciousness.

Ironically enough, the hype pop of 538 was actually driven by people misinterpreting the stats and using them to feel vindicated in their support of Obama. The comedown was finding out that 25% is still 1-in-4 odds.

538 should be killing the horse race coverage by doing the most sober version of it. But horse race is big business. Therefore: boo 538, booooooo, they're harshing the vibe of my favorite reality show.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The thought that the vote was "real close to 50-50" and "trump didn't get a majority of the vote" Yes. Both of those things are true. Other folks correctly mentioned that. >and "therefore we just need to do what we're doing and it'll work out OK in 2028 and the midterms" is what the video clip i linked was talking to. Who said that? Not me. Not anyone else on this thread. Rather, various folks rebutted[0][5][6] your…

again, i was quoting THE VIEW , which is a left leaning news and entertainment program. Arguing with me about whether or not there is a mandate is silly, as, in my first comment, put those words in quotation marks which means i was directly quoting someone - and then i linked the video i grabbed the quote from. How many minutes did you spend writing all of this to me? The video i linked is less than 5 minutes long an…

You completely miss the point.

I'm going to assume that you're operating in good faith and really don't understand (is English your native language?) not just being deliberately obtuse.

And more's the pity.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#130
post #24

As someone who was super interested in the 538-style of election coverage in 2008, I've kind of fallen "out of love" so to speak with election models and forecasting in general. I'm not really convinced about what it adds to the conversation around elections. We can all look at various polls and get an assessment of who is generally ahead. Weighted polling aggregators and forecasting models just collect all these pol…

Respectfully, I disagree on both points. > We can all look at various polls and get an assessment of who is generally ahead. I probably could, but there's a lot of polls to look through and I don't really want to spend the time. Much rather have someone else do it for me. > if no matter what the result, we can always just say "the candidate who won could always have won given the forecast" - what are we really adding…

The trick here is that if the election is close enough that you'd actually want/need multiple pollsters aggregated, the aggregators will indicate high uncertainty. If it's enough of a blowout for the aggregators to indicate low uncertainty, then the individual polls are going to be showing a large gap.

An aggregator saying "foo has a 65% chance of winning" may seem like it's providing more information than a single historically reliable poll (say Reuters/Ipsos) stating "foo is up by 2 points but there's a 3 point margin of error" - but isn't it just an illusion? High quality pollsters very seldom deviate very much.

And even if you grant that the aggregator is closer to being "right" than any single pollster, is that difference actually meaningful enough to impact any real world behaviors? Would you do anything differently with a 50% chance of victory versus a 70% chance?

I've honestly come to think of them as entertainment, with no real value.

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