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A few words about FiveThirtyEight

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Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#111

Post by rconti »

nozzlegear wrote: post #46
rconti wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really enjoy Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova - I read her book The Biggest Bluff a few years back and really enjoyed it, and them podcasting together is great. (Despite my feelings about never wanting to hear Malcolm Gladwell's voice ever again, as he's omnipresent in Pushkin podcast network ads, which seem to be the worst of the entire podcasting ecosystem). I never really followed the "Nate Silver" controvers…

> I never really followed the "Nate Silver" controversy after 2016, but it basically seems to boil down to a bunch of liberals being mad because they felt lied to for no apparent reason. FWIW I don't think he's controversial because of the 2016 polling miss, most people who follow 538 understand what 538 does and that it wasn't his "fault." He's controversial because he posts scalding hot takes on Twitter and then go…

Gotcha, thanks. I've never been able to find value in that platform so I must have missed it. On his podcast sometimes he TALKS about the argument he gets into on Twitter, but of course it all sounds more reasonable when he's explaining it I'm sure!

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#112

Post by madcaptenor »

kemayo wrote: post #77
genewitch wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, do you recall seeing a "county map" of the blue votes in the 2020 election?

Why would we have? It's pointless. As the GP said, land doesn't vote. The more interesting map is the one where you weight the display by population, since it gives a much more accurate representation of how the USA is divided: https://engaging-data.com/pages/scripts/d3Electoral/countyel... The tool on that website is actually pretty informative to play with if you want to quickly see how adjusting the map style can…

Not sure why I can't reply to the sibling comment...

anyway, the reason for the east/west divide in population density is that the west is dry. See maps at climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/new-ma...). By convention people refer to this line as being at the "100th meridian" but the 98th may be more accurate.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#113

Post by seanmcdirmid »

genewitch wrote: post #105
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you include Alaska, which is a huge state (I hear bigger than Texas), land starts voting very blue due to Alaskan native influence. They don’t have counties though, just boroughs (Alaska still goes red even if it’s land goes blue due to population distribution).

Louisiana doesn't have counties, either. I live in Louisiana, and when i said "counties" i included the parishes in my state, and any other geographically distinct entity of the same legal merit. there are 3300 counties in the US. People live in all of those counties.

There are only a few boroughs in Alaska but some of them are larger than Texas.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#114

Post by bee_rider »

genewitch wrote: post #73
bee_rider wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also it is a video. Asking literate people to go watch a video is disrespectful of their time.

It is a video of a guest on the view saying the words that i typed. It was "citing a source."

The View is just a chit-chat show anyway, so a source that proves that somebody said something on it doesn’t prove anything compelling.

Anyway, my computer can’t play YouTube (ad blocking issues).

The underlying thing that is annoying people, I think, is that this is (as far as I can tell based on what you’ve written) a factual mathematical issue. That sort of thing is easily conveyed via text and equations. Why would anybody want to watch a video of somebody explaining math?

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#115

Post by mgfist »

genewitch wrote: post #55
mgfist wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's because elections these days are incredibly close. It's like being upset that the best statistical answer to "who will win a coin toss" is "well it's 50/50".

Are you sure about that? 89% of counties turned red. Looking at 1.5% total difference is missing the forest for the trees. Trump got all swing states. To quote: "this is absolutely a mandate." https://youtu.be/zG3n2IeaTPA edit: facts cannot be insolent. The youtube link is a guest on the view named Stephen something, from this week, saying the words that i typed into the comment box. Not clicking it is doing yourself…

Well, the great thing is we have betting markets for this now. Given your confidence, I'm assuming you made a lot of money betting on Trump?

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#116

Post by genewitch »

verzali wrote: post #110
kemayo wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we have? It's pointless. As the GP said, land doesn't vote. The more interesting map is the one where you weight the display by population, since it gives a much more accurate representation of how the USA is divided: https://engaging-data.com/pages/scripts/d3Electoral/countyel... The tool on that website is actually pretty informative to play with if you want to quickly see how adjusting the map style can…

Bit of a tangent, but I've always wondered why the United States has a very clear dividing line between the populated east and relatively empty west. It's really visible in the first map you shared. Is there a historical reason behind that line? Or some geographical boundary?

My understanding, as an american, is that the Federal government "owns" most of the land west of either the Mississippi River or the Sabine. Or used to "own" it. So getting land for personal/business use in that geographic region is harder than eastward. I don't know the term of art, but it's like the Federal Government - via the BLM, USDA, USFS, or whatever - has right of first refusal for all land sales.

I know that my understanding can be wrong, but this is what i've heard and perusing some maps bears out at least some validity.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#117

Post by s1artibartfast »

genewitch wrote: post #107
kelnos wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the German upper house, the Bundesrat, represents the German states (Länder), and although (unlike the Australian and US Senates) it does give more populous states a greater number of seats, the number of seats is still out of proportion to population: in Bremen there are 223,830 people per a seat, compared to 2,977,586 people per a seat in North Rhine-Westphalia. To be fair, though, in the US, the House also has u…

I've heard this my entire life, too. However, having lived more places than just California, I see California as having undue influence on the entire country. Prop 65 warnings pop up on things outside of California. I've even seen stuff labeled as CARB outside of California. These are trivial examples, but both of those things are California legalities. If Louisiana had undue influence on the US, more packaging would…

I think prop 65 warnings are about the worst example of undue political influence. Companies do this outside the state on a completely voluntary basis.

Their adoption in other states completely bypasses the national legislature due to the real world economic power of the Califonia market. They dictate external behavior by regulating their internal market.

What part of this is undue? States and individuals should have the ability to exercise power through self regulation, essentially threating to take their ball and go home.

Where I find more fault with California and Californians is when they interfere directly with external state politics. The classic example of this would rich Californians dumping money into political campaigns and ballot initiatives in other states, influencing their 'internal* politics.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#118

Post by genewitch »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #92
genewitch wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, do you recall seeing a "county map" of the blue votes in the 2020 election?

Did you know that there are about 2,160 counties across these 40 states that collectively have a smaller population than Los Angeles county? Who cares about a "county map"?

people who don't live in Los Angeles might be curious why their neighbors suddenly switched to voting red.

why is everyone assuming that i'm not intelligent enough to know that "land doesn't vote"? The county voting maps are a proxy.

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#119

Post by danorama »

genewitch wrote: post #118
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you know that there are about 2,160 counties across these 40 states that collectively have a smaller population than Los Angeles county? Who cares about a "county map"?

people who don't live in Los Angeles might be curious why their neighbors suddenly switched to voting red. why is everyone assuming that i'm not intelligent enough to know that "land doesn't vote"? The county voting maps are a proxy .

Because they’re a meaningless proxy?

Re: A few words about FiveThirtyEight

#120

Post by genewitch »

bee_rider wrote: post #114
genewitch wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a video of a guest on the view saying the words that i typed. It was "citing a source."

The View is just a chit-chat show anyway, so a source that proves that somebody said something on it doesn’t prove anything compelling. Anyway, my computer can’t play YouTube (ad blocking issues). The underlying thing that is annoying people, I think, is that this is (as far as I can tell based on what you’ve written) a factual mathematical issue. That sort of thing is easily conveyed via text and equations. Why woul…

> The View is just a chit-chat show anyway, so a source that proves that somebody said something on it doesn’t prove anything compelling.

This is a fallacy. I repeated numbers, that person was also repeating numbers, however, they're on a national news program and no one has given any reason that the numbers stated were wrong. It does not matter who says something, you have to weigh it on the merits of the statements.

It isn't a "factual mathematical issue" it's a sociological issue, and it's bearing out in this comment thread - burying one's head in the sand because "Los Angeles is bigger and has more people" or "land doesn't vote" or "so what, it wasn't a majority" is missing the forest for the trees. Something about the platform did not work for our neighbors. A platform that worked in 2008, 2012, (2016 if you reckon the pundits are correct), and 2020 - it ceased working in 2024; and merely "doing the same thing" going forward won't work.

I think the unspoken part is this: "If the left just pushes on as it has been, the midterms and 2028 aren't going to be '1.5%' margins"

People often assume i am part of the opposition party.

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