Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

741–750 of 1001 posts

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#741

Post by borsecplata »

re-thc wrote: post #575
abirch wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unsure of how many internet services Taiwan relies on outside of Taiwan? If the servers are on the island, my understanding is that they'll be fine. Unfortunately they won't be able to access Hacker News, but they should be able to bank, buy groceries, etc.

> If the servers are on the island, my understanding is that they'll be fine. Taiwan doesn't have a huge data center capacity. A lot of services are in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, etc... Of the big clouds e.g. AWS is only opening a data center later this year. It's also not so simple. Even local servers / services might have all sorts of "needs" to phone "home" elsewhere e.g. for analytics. A lot of software might n…

I'm quite certain taiwan is aware of this "kubernetes clusters" paradox and the military has the issue addressed.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#742

Post by r00fus »

bloppe wrote: post #648
VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially. This will happen after USA extricates all the meaningful tech and re-homes the institutions and workforce required to maintain that tech to the USA mainland. Still probably a decade or two away, but likely.

Why would China will wait for a decade? They've been very clear about wanting to invade by 2027

Who says they'll invade by 2027? Some Washington think tank?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#743

Post by eevilspock »

bentt wrote: post #729
smaug7 wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This to me is the correct answer. A lot of times in war it's not about logic or reason, it's about emotion and feeling. Throughout Chinese history, a leader is only "legitimate" or dare I say, have the Mandate from Heaven, when they have unified the country under one banner. It is a stain on their authority that there is "rouge" state outside the CCP's control. They will do anything to unify their country for nationa…

Yes, communist nations especially need to protect the narrative that their way is the best way. Having the Taiwanese sitting off shore thriving outside of party control is embarrassing.

On a daily basis here on HN, capitalists and libertarians and others with the SV mindset work hard to protect the narrative that their way is the best way.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#744

Post by borsecplata »

bloomingkales wrote: post #478
nverno wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.

Not everything is for sale, especially at this ridiculous price. Why would you think the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#745

Post by deepsun »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

You assume that if it's not rational to start a war they would not start it.

People in Ukraine and EU did the same mistake. Wars can start for no reason or for bogus "fake news" reasons. E.g. US can attack, say, Canada, at any time, there's no fundamental law of nature to prevent that.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#746

Post by borsecplata »

nverno wrote: post #459
ekianjo wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

There is no scenario possible in which china invades taiwan and "surprise" is involved. In ukraine it took months for russia to prepare at the border.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#747

Post by michpoch »

billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

Russian army has plenty of combat experience. Russian weapons were export product and are battle tested.

China has none of that.

Russia brought soldiers from the far east to fight. How eager do you think Chinese will be to kill their fellow people in Taiwan? The communist government is not branding them as a enemy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#748

Post by joeguilmette »

thereddaikon wrote: post #611
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

Yes except it’s not as if they went to Cuba, it’s more like the confederates fled to Long Island.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#749

Post by golergka »

michpoch wrote: post #747
billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

Russian army has plenty of combat experience. Russian weapons were export product and are battle tested. China has none of that. Russia brought soldiers from the far east to fight. How eager do you think Chinese will be to kill their fellow people in Taiwan? The communist government is not branding them as a enemy.

> Russian army has plenty of combat experience. Russian weapons were export product and are battle tested.

Both Russian personell with real combat experience and russian weapons that have been sold to outside customers have run out in the first half a year of the war. Since late 2022, Russia is fighting with freshly mobilized troops that go from being civilians to dying in a meat attack in less than a week with no bootcamp and 1960s tanks from Soviet stockpiles.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#750

Post by araes »

justahuman74 wrote: post #286
tyre wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

A vast nuclear weapons program is cheaper than $100b

Upvote on this just cause $100,000,000,000 is a ridiculous amount of money. The most advanced lithography machines that have even been advertised cost $380,000,000. Huge number of lithography machines for $100B. [1] And if you're not going for the completely most leading edge lithography, then the price drops incredibly rapidly. $150,000,000 or close rolloff.

Really, personal opinion, yet America and most countries on Earth, should probably be able to get lithography machines cheaper than $380,000,000. However, that's an argument for the lithography industry. At an average Taiwanese salary of $18,000 / yr (NT$50,000 / mnth) that's 21,000 labor years / machine. Even with amortized development that seems like a lot.

[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/asm...

Post reply on HN