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America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

economist.com

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Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#71

Post by lawn »

jrs235 wrote: post #55
yongjik wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think cratering the economy actually helps Trump, Musk, or their billionaire friends. Billionaires need a functioning economy to continuously make money. Economic implosion might bring a period of horrible instability after which a few of them may end up at the top, but it's with a non-negligible chance of things like "We triggered a war and all my investment has burnt down" or other nice stuff. My best guess…

These folks want power (control). What's more powerful? Owning 99.99% of all wealth valued at $1 trillion. Or owning 90% of all wealth valued at $100 trillion? Remember it's not about money, it's about power (aka control)...

Wealth is always relative, so yeah.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#72

Post by QuantumGood »

MarcelOlsz wrote: post #3

The goal is to destabilize and crater the economy then have the rich scoop it up for cheap right? With the goal of moving closer and closer to a pure rentier economy?

So many possibly framings of motive, activity and outcomes all within the paradigm of "power corrupts" with propaganda masking the corruption.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#73

Post by tim333 »

bognition wrote: post #4

I’m seriously concerned that the market is going you crater in the next year, do what is the rational investment strategy? Trust Buffett and buy BRKB? Try to weather the storm with VOO? Buy treasury bonds?

In the dot com bubble buying BRK worked well. It bottomed on the same day the NASDAQ peaked.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#74

Post by mrguyorama »

daveguy wrote: post #67
Paradigma11 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem for the Democrats is on the one hand they just have to wait for Trump to crater everything and then take over or they could work against it and be blamed for preventing the Trumpish golden age.

That's a good point. It's amazing what a $44 billion propaganda platform and a quarter billion in cash can buy you. Fortunately there are still a lot of alternatives. Don't think they can keep papering over it for 4 or even 2 years.

Trump literally made a shitty economy his first term. Farmers had to be bailed out.

They all insisted on voting for Trump "for the economy".

When you opt-in to a controlled media ecosystem, you can be convinced of anything.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#75

Post by daveguy »

navane wrote: post #70
daveguy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you realize how many people don't give two shits about social media or Elon Musk but love to hear from their friends and family? This is not difficult. There are so many ways to broach the subject. Some examples that I feel: I thought Trump was going to lower grocery prices. Who put Elon in charge of dismantling the US government? Why does Trump want a hotel in Gaza of all the ridiculous things you could possibly…

They literally parrot fox news which is on 24/7 in those households. Whatever are the current lines, they'll repeat them. If your family is on the other side, they don't listen anymore.

They sure as fuck don't listen if you don't talk to them.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#76

Post by Terr_ »

pointlessone wrote: post #60
mercer wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol, they're pissing off 4 of those actively, or am I getting the count wrong?

Depends on how you count. There are tariffs on everyone for steel and aluminium. There are specific tarrifs on Canada, Mexico, EU, and China. Trump promises to back off from NATO, which pisses off pretty much everyone on the European continent (EU or otherwise). The recent counch incident in the Oval Office wasn’t taken well in the Europe as well.

> Canada, Mexico, EU, and China

Which are, for the record, the four biggest trading partners, and over half of all the US's international trade.

At this rate the US will be threatening Moldova to give it good trade terms or else it'll huffily take its business elsewhere to Montenegro.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#77

Post by Tadpole9181 »

daveguy wrote: post #75
navane wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They literally parrot fox news which is on 24/7 in those households. Whatever are the current lines, they'll repeat them. If your family is on the other side, they don't listen anymore.

They sure as fuck don't listen if you don't talk to them.

From personal experience, literally none of them have ever listened to me. Not family, not friends. It is never too far and I'm always "misunderstanding" something or they always need to "look into it more". Then the next line gets crossed, the prior thing is now suddenly "not a big deal", and we repeat the cycle.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#78

Post by Tadpole9181 »

daveguy wrote: post #35
ivraatiems wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely do, and I know plenty of folks who will express dismay at these issues on the one hand, then turn around and justify Trump and defend him on the other hand. They literally will not connect the dots. Same for folks who think government is corrupt and broken and so choose a corrupt pro-thing-breaker to lead it.

Have you tried lately? Since Elon started being a dumbass?

Of course?

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#79

Post by slashdev »

thfuran wrote: post #40
slashdev wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market might still end up for the year, it will just be a more volatile year. It would be very unlikely to see another double digit gains year in a row. That being said, it could also crash hard and not recover to these levels for a decade. There is lots of historical precedence for that - especially at these valuations. I’m chiefly concerned about tariffs, housing market weakness, labor market weakness, and reve…

Or it could be down for many decades. The Nikkei 225 is only just this year reaching where it was in 1989.

Exactly. The stock market only got back to the highs of 1929, in inflation adjusted terms by 1960. So worst case, it can take 30 years or more to recover. Japan took even longer.

Re: America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

#80

Post by pointlessone »

Terr_ wrote: post #76
pointlessone wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on how you count. There are tariffs on everyone for steel and aluminium. There are specific tarrifs on Canada, Mexico, EU, and China. Trump promises to back off from NATO, which pisses off pretty much everyone on the European continent (EU or otherwise). The recent counch incident in the Oval Office wasn’t taken well in the Europe as well.

> Canada, Mexico, EU, and China Which are, for the record, the four biggest trading partners, and over half of all the US's international trade. At this rate the US will be threatening Moldova to give it good trade terms or else it'll huffily take its business elsewhere to Montenegro.

Well, there are talks about a mineral deal with Russia, others also mention gas and oil. Who knows, maybe it can grow into an all encompassing trade deal. Very good for America. The best.
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