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DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

nytimes.com

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Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#751

Post by somenameforme »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

> "4. Corporate tax receipts have been steadily falling as a percentage of GDP. [1]"

That needs some context. Here [2] is a graph of corporate profits after tax versus GDP. Corporate profits are, counter-intuitively, a far smaller percent of the total GDP, so it's rather logical that tax from said profits would be a smaller percent of GDP. This is one sample of why looking at things as a percent of GDP can be quite misleading.

[1] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DUdb

[2] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DUIy

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#752

Post by Glyptodon »

cuuupid wrote: post #84

I think impartial observers have not spent time in actual government bureaucracy. Basically everything will seem like “they’re cutting something important!” Or “they’re stopping critical research!” because every government contract needs justification; so naturally they will all sound good. The data and accounting itself is such bad quality in all cases that it is impossible to be perfect at this; there are entire in…

USGS seemed like it was mostly worthwhile stuff when I was there, just operating on outdated technologies and under budget cycles and patterns that incentivized goofy behaviors because saving money in even the simplest of ways could only lead to budgets being cut in unconstructive ways.

For example, imagine there's a budget of $5k and it's assuming that you'll replace a computer with part of it.

But you don't actually need to replace your computer until after the fiscal year.

But if you wait, the next budget will just think whatever you didn't spend can be cut, not that you deferred a cost for slightly longer.

Similarly, even if you have budget for something you need at the start of a fiscal year, everyone is afraid of blowing budget before the end of the fiscal year... So many expenses get deferred until things are close enough to the fiscal boundary that everyone starts worrying about not spending instead...

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#753

Post by WickyNilliams »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #475
qgin wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number 3 can’t be overstated. Healthcare costs for the exact same care are 2x-3x what they are in Europe. Global health insurance plans usually come in two flavors: 1. Global coverage 2. Global coverage excluding United States (for half the monthly premium of the first plan) The United States in an extreme outlier in terms of cost. This is separate from rationing care. This is separate from even population health (ex…

> The United States in an extreme outlier in terms of cost. This is separate from rationing care. This is separate from even population health (ex. higher obesity rates) Are you sure? People comparing US healthcare costs to European costs don't realize that these are two very different products. The US population is much more unhealthy, yet it has about the same life expectancy as an average European country. This wo…

The life expectancy of the USA is a few years lower than the average in Europe. And of course Europe is poorer on average, plus has a war ongoing. Adjusted for those, I imagine the gap is larger still

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#754

Post by kelnos »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #687
ipython wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And don't worry, the House is ready to extend and expand tax cuts to more than extinguish any potential "savings" - to the tune of over $3 trillion in extra deficit spending. But don't worry, they've planned for that- just increase the debt limit by $4 trillion to cover the difference! After all, now that the Democrats aren't in charge any longer, increasing the debt limit is no biggie - we'll just grow ourselves out…

Wait, I thought the GOP was the party of fiscal conservatism and reducing the deficit? Shouldn't they be reducing the debt ceiling rather than raising it?

If you think that, then they've been successful at their usual smokescreen: blame Democrats for deficit spending, and then when the GOP is back in power, they do... more deficit spending. Sometimes even more deficit spending. Somehow a lot of people seem not to notice that.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#755

Post by aikinai »

tdeck wrote: post #720
stouset wrote: post #692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But if the question is 'do you think an effort should be made to look for things to cut', I'd say 'yes, of course.' This is such an unbelievably lazy response. Every single person in existence thinks there’s some amount of government waste that we wish were cut and either returned to the citizens or put to better use elsewhere. The interesting and important question which GP poijted out—and which you completely dod…

> It’s about fulfilling their long-stated wet dream of finally drowning the government in a bathtub. Except for the parts for the government that can shoot you or kick down your door. Those parts are sticking around for sure.

Yeah, those parts are the primary reason to have a government.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#756

Post by Sparyjerry »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

GDP includes government spending as well. Cut government spending and GDP goes down. Our ability to make debt payments is not very great when you look at it this way. GDP is not revenue. Revenue as a percentage of the debt is nearing all time lows.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#757

Post by rhubarbtree »

sxyuan wrote: post #308
sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

Y'all, original poster here - please don't downvote or flag kill responses to this that are good-faith attempts to discuss the issue, even if the response seems misinformed to you. I don't think anyone will change their minds when that happens.

Thanks for making a sensible comment. I’m very concerned about the fate of America right now, and particularly the sudden hard-right swing of the tech community. It’s comforting to see a factual post on HN and see many others responding reasonably.

In many ways I love the US and its citizens, highly diverse and fascinating folks that you are, but recent events have been crushing that view. Us Europeans have always felt our differences but also an acknowledgement that we are essentially “on the same side”. DOGE’s apparent violation of the constitution has eroded that bond, as America turns away from democracy.

I understand the anger that fuels Trump voters, but it is a misdirected anger and I hope that America can recover its path and also reform itself to address the genuine concerns of trump supporters.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#758

Post by rhubarbtree »

ekianjo wrote: post #564
sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

the comparison with GDP is useless. If the federal budget is putting the country in massive debt, that's the only thing you should care about. Debt will kill your country sooner or later.

Well, perhaps it is useful in pointing out that taxation, and not spending, is the real problem.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#759

Post by Sparyjerry »

TomK32 wrote: post #103
cuuupid wrote: post #84

I think impartial observers have not spent time in actual government bureaucracy. Basically everything will seem like “they’re cutting something important!” Or “they’re stopping critical research!” because every government contract needs justification; so naturally they will all sound good. The data and accounting itself is such bad quality in all cases that it is impossible to be perfect at this; there are entire in…

Very nice examples, but why then doesn't DOGE go through every project? Why did Trump end all DEI contracts, why cause the disruption by freezing all outgoing money, why fire the Inspector Generals that are inspecting their agencies for waste, why fire all probationary workers, and why the fuck do they want to mess with the IRS, the one agency that brings money in at a very successful rate? Clearly no one at Musk's D…

It's only cuttable because DEI is not the actual budget line item. Think of it like this 'program gets a budget of $10M' and the people that run it decide the best way to implement that program includes $8M of DEI training. They can instead decide to spend $0 on DEI and the full budget on payroll. This is simply changing the priority of what was effectively an HR function to actual productivity functions.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#760

Post by kelnos »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #423
Uehreka wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given partisan polarisation, my guess is Democrats will take an axe to veteran benefits next cycle I highly doubt it. The Senate “Democrat” in charge of the VA is Bernie Sanders himself, and he’s been a stalwart supporter of improving veteran benefits his entire career. There’s also the whole “it would be political suicide” thing. Partisan polarization is a good way to predict a lot of things, but if you lean into…

> the whole “it would be political suicide” thing It was political suicide because the 18% of Americans who are veterans turn out to vote, are seen sympathetically by other voters [1] and were often swing voters. The last part was critical: veterans are already turning out, so offending them was less about turning out votes for your opponent than losing your own votes. But if they aren't voting for you [2], you aren'…

I feel like you might be contradicting yourself a bit there, though. If veterans mainly don't vote Democrat, then sure, pissing them off isn't a problem. But if veterans "are seen sympathetically by other voters", then you maybe won't want to piss off those other voters, unless we know that they also primarily vote Republican.
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