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DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

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Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#691
post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

1. The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the less likely it becomes that the country will pay back its debt and the higher its risk of default. The most recent number for the US is 123%. $28.83 trillion GDP vs $35.46 trillion debt.

2. They are "overlapping" categories. The money you give to the elderly is then spent by them in healthcare. So the true expenditures in healthcare are higher when you take this into consideration.

3. The pharmaceutical industry and insurance companies share a lot in common with organized crime. It is here where most of the money is leaked.

4. Because there is tax avoidance and tax evasion. Tax evasion is illegal, tax avoidance is not. If there's a way to achieve tax avoidance, someone will find it and use that approach.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#692
post #426
post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

> How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average...? Why should it scale linearly with GDP? I can see an argument that it should scale linearly with population (maybe), but if GDP per capita increases, you could also expect better tech/productivity to allow gov spending per capita to decrease. > What do you think should be cut, an…

> But if the question is 'do you think an effort should be made to look for things to cut', I'd say 'yes, of course.'

This is such an unbelievably lazy response. Every single person in existence thinks there’s some amount of government waste that we wish were cut and either returned to the citizens or put to better use elsewhere.

The interesting and important question which GP poijted out—and which you completely dodged—is where and what should be cut. DOGE is looking at the set of government spending that accounts for less than 9% in aggregate of the entire federal budget. At best if they found that 10% of this money was abuse, it would account to less than 1% of the overall federal budget.

This isn’t about reducing government spending. If it was, they’d be going after larger targets. It’s about fulfilling their long-stated wet dream of finally drowning the government in a bathtub.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#693
post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

The proposed Senate budget includes $150 billion increase in the defense budget, which already was 50% of all discretionary spending (that means after SS and Medicare as that is covered by a separate tax). This is much more than any DOGE savings, and shows that this isn't about reducing the federal budget, but about cutting services in order to fund two things: military, and corporate tax cuts (which largely benefit…

> This is much more than any DOGE savings

DOGE is an 18 month project. Confidently asserting the end result after a few weeks is bold.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#694
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you’re 100% correct, these aren’t the right people and these aren’t the right methods. Completely the opposite actually.

There are 5 different existing agencies within the government that all exist for essentially the same purpose -- to track and audit government spending. None of them have been successful in any capacity over the last 20 years. It's easy to just go online and say "this is wrong these people are idiots" but what is your alternative solution? We have exhausted pretty much every other method at this point, all the big co…

Wait, you’re alleging Bill Clinton downsized the government by measures more callous than randomly firing workers, forcing them to en masse justify their positions to an unelected billionaire? I was alive then and I don’t remember any of that. Citation needed.

And he actually did manage to balance the budget. Too bad that didn’t last long under Bush.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#695
post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

The proposed Senate budget includes $150 billion increase in the defense budget, which already was 50% of all discretionary spending (that means after SS and Medicare as that is covered by a separate tax). This is much more than any DOGE savings, and shows that this isn't about reducing the federal budget, but about cutting services in order to fund two things: military, and corporate tax cuts (which largely benefit…

> I'd much rather my money being spent on education, foreign assistance, scientific research, etc., even if there is some inefficiencies and waste

In fact, I’d argue that the government’s role is specifically to spend on things that are economically inefficient but nonetheless important.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#696
post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

1. The simplest answer is that federal spending has always been out of control. 2. This assumes a 100% effective government. If it's only 70% effective, you can cut spending by 30% without affecting the noble goals you list. 3. This is the Luigi argument. Get rid of health insurance and we'll all be happy! What exactly to replace it with is TBD. 4. The main argument against high corporate taxes is that it leads to co…

In #2, doing the DOGE way you cut by 30% but the efficiency is now lower than 70%. Government is now less effective, costs less, wastes more. Cuts in education, research and consumer protection will cost a lot long term.

For #3 there is like dozens of models from different countries around the world. The U.S. could start by looking into those.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why should it scale linearly with GDP? It doesn't have to. But GDP is a good proxy for the tax base. If the problem is deficits and spending isn't increasing linearly with GDP, that suggests the problem is with taxation. Not spending.

I don't understand this logic. For simplicity, imagine one program like food stamps. It costs X dollars per person on the program. The cost of that program should scale with inflation and population. If taxes and government should scale with GDP, that implies either making more programs or expanding existing ones. As an example, you'd increase the amount of people eligible for food stamps as the population became wea…

The cost of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has been decreasing year over year when adjusted for inflation since 2021. It was also decreasing when adjusted for inflation from 2013 to 2019.

The logic for food stamps does not really apply to other programs though. The amount of calories people need is constant, so supplying a given population with enough food to survive should be easier as time goes on. However for most things, we're not aiming for a fixed outcome but one that scales with GDP. For example medicine - providing people with 1970s levels of care would certainly be cheaper adjusted for inflation than it was in the 1970s, but providing access to modern medicine in modern hospitals performed by current doctors is substantially more expensive, and providing 2050 medicine will be more expensive still.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#698
post #676
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This framing is a bit far from the actual motivating issue underlying the federal "budget" itself. I think a better question is whether having a federal workforce of 4 million people managed by an unaccountable bureaucracy is in the best interests of any country. If you frame it as simply whether to spend money on this or that or if you're getting comparable value to other countries, then it is inevitable for the sid…

> I think a better question is whether having a federal workforce of 4 million people managed by an unaccountable bureaucracy is in the best interests of any country. The word "unaccountable" gets thrown around a lot in these discussions. The leaders of these bureaucracies are ultimately appointed by and accountable to the President, who is in turn elected by and accountable to the public. In what sense are they unac…

It only will make sense when you reintroduce the idea of "the political" into your framework. Without that, a government is simply a territorial administrative apparatus or provincial satrapy. If your parents are Canadian, perhaps you are as well (or at least very familiar with Canada), and can relate to a government seeing its population as simply interchangeable units of administrative responsibility managed by a hedonic rationalism. I think Canada is a great example of what US voters in the last election don't want to be. It's kind of a nice, albeit cold, place but very authoritarian and prone to treating its identity as something of little value and an embarrassment, except contra the big bad United States next door. Canadians look at our health care system and school shootings and suppose their system is obviously better, but Canada comes across as very naive and ungrateful for the benefits it receives as our northern neighbor. I suspect there are many Canadians who also don't like their government's policies but are at a loss on how to effect change because their government is less susceptible to populist political waves than the US.

The government works in some areas and not in others. Our once envied university system has become a human gristmill cartel, indenturing a generation of our youth under debts they will never dig out of because of perverse incentives engineered via vast federal spending programs. Foreign students may still come for the prestige but many diplomas are effectively worthless and many schools properly should be mothballed. In any case, measuring a government's worth by how many people receive benefits is a pretty pathetic standard. It's beneath human dignity to have such meager aspirations for a country.

Unaccountable civil services aren't hard to understand in history. Like a military that is ostensibly under the control of the king or president but not really, so have civil services sometimes constituted as separate government that can just ignore the commands of elected representatives of a people. Laws can and are passed to entrench the civil service even deeper, making it hard to fire any but the top-level appointees. These can try to get the institution to do something differently but if the institution is unresponsive they can rant and rave all day, the careerists can just wait them out. It's not hard to understand if you study incentives. They are deeply misaligned and it is only because the administration learned some of these lessons the first time around that they came in with a much more effective game plan this time. You can see how dramatic actions are required to overcome the institutional resistance. I'm sorry that good people have/will lose jobs, but government should not be a tenured jobs program. The taxpayer doesn't have that luxury, why should this subgroup? Why should we all engage in a fantasy that federal employees aren't people who, sometimes despite the best of intentions, are going to pursue their group interests even at the expense of other groups? Huge pots of money are going to attract huge pressures from outsiders trying to access funding. Many of the high profile grants to ridiculous projects are not surprising when you see these institutions as participants in political patronage networks. There has to be some way to officially distribute the money. Have them dig and fill holes or put on puppet theater for the blind. It doesn't really matter.

Keep in mind there is no ultimate fix for this. All institutions decay and need to be replaced from time to time. Getting upset about this particular patronage network being disrupted is the wrong worry unless you were a particular recipient of its largesse. If not, then you might come out better off at the end of the day.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And don't worry, the House is ready to extend and expand tax cuts to more than extinguish any potential "savings" - to the tune of over $3 trillion in extra deficit spending. But don't worry, they've planned for that- just increase the debt limit by $4 trillion to cover the difference! After all, now that the Democrats aren't in charge any longer, increasing the debt limit is no biggie - we'll just grow ourselves out…

Wait, I thought the GOP was the party of fiscal conservatism and reducing the deficit? Shouldn't they be reducing the debt ceiling rather than raising it?

They absolutely should be. The legislature is not representing the will of the voters and refusing to do what's right for society as a whole and pass term limits for themselves. It's not complicated. Those who vote yes are reasonable, ethical, moral people, and those who vote no leave behind a permanent legacy of boundless self-interest.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#700
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However bad your experience with corporate politics, know that government is 100x worse. Reading your comment I saw so many similarities to any large organisation which I worked for that I can't help but think it's simply on the same level. Hell, my first internship was 100% budget filler and, in line with my role, I was useless. Regarding inefficiency: I'm a contractor for a large organisation and have been for ov…

I say govt politics is so much worse because it is not like, a handful of people trying to get ahead by spending a lot, it is almost all of them. They're also vicious, many times I have been cussed out by bureaucrats over stupid things like css padding on a table. There are lines that don't get crossed in corporate politics, none of those lines exist in government.

There are NO LINES that aren't crossed on corporate politics. Verbal abuse, illogical decisions based on vibes, favoritism or just plain stupidity are common in companies not listed and not rare on those that are.

The majority of things illegal in governments are business as usual in the private sector. Want to take a kickback of a supplier? Perfectly fine and normal on non large corporations. Still happens on those.

Because you had luck with your career is not representative of overall corporate behaviour. I worked as a third party seeing lots of large companies as clients. The amount of BS is outstanding and awe inspiring.

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