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DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

nytimes.com

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Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#561

Post by whoitwas »

foxglacier wrote: post #534
ruraljuror wrote: post #210

Keeping Musk’s interests in mind helps clarify what’s going on. Scorching earth and constantly lying is the playbook for dismantling agencies with oversight into the companies he runs and agencies that promote potential growth of competitors (e.g. pulling the ladder up behind him after the DoE’s Tesla loan). The Canada/China tariffs will cripple other automakers who depend on trade while Tesla’s integrated manufactur…

Is there a specific thing DOGE did or said they'd do which has those effects or are you just making it up?

DOGE has destroyed several agencies that were investigating his companies including FAA (starlink), FDA(neurolink), NHTSA(tesla). I'm sure there are many more, but these instantly come to mind.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#562

Post by bagels »

ipython wrote: post #395
harry8 wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 years ago I read a story about an obstetrician in the USA. His premiums at that time for professional negligence were $1m per year. He would have to keep paying those premiums for 18 years after his retirement. Same for every obstetrician. Professional fees then must be set to cover those insurance premiums. Has that changed for the better in the USA? Seems very unlikely to be the same in Europe. Obstetrics is obv…

I would need to see a citation for this story. Medical malpractice/negligence premiums are very high - OBGYNs pay some of the highest rates. Just a few google searches shows that rates can exceed $200k (annually) in some locales in 2024. So to claim in 2004 that there are doctors paying > $1m/year in malpractice insurance is at least an order of magnitude away from what casual googling discloses. I agree that the who…

Is it hard to believe that some types of insurance may cost 4x as much as 20 years ago?

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#563

Post by terribleperson »

pitaj wrote: post #542
terribleperson wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about point four? Taxes on corporate profits might be indirectly passed on to consumers (e.g. corporations take advantage of the knowledge of the taxes to justify raising prices), but since goods and services are presumably already optimally priced, and taxes on profits aren't an increase to costs, they shouldn't be directly passed on. It would be an extraordinary claim to say that corporations are not p…

Prices are set by supply and demand. Taxing corporate profits offsets the supply curve, resulting in higher prices. The data supports this. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27058/w270...

Thank you for actually providing a source. I haven't had time to read the whole thing yet, but their methodology seems reasonable, although it's not certain that corporations would behave the same in response to a federal tax. As is, that paper supports the assertion that some percentage of taxes is passed on to consumers, though not a total pass through, which is very different from a blanket "taxes get passed on to consumers".

"A one percentage point increase in a state-level corporate tax rate leads to an increase in affected retail prices of approximately 0.24 percent." is much less strong of an affect than, say, tariffs.

They also say "Pass-through is larger for products purchased by high-income households, higher priced goods, and in less competitive markets.", which makes it seem like corporate taxes might still be highly progressive even with pass-through.

Saving this paper in my references folder.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#564

Post by ekianjo »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

the comparison with GDP is useless. If the federal budget is putting the country in massive debt, that's the only thing you should care about. Debt will kill your country sooner or later.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#565

Post by briantakita »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

The Constitution doesn't protect the many bureaucratic organizations that have sprung up since it's inception. I could be wrong, but I don't think there's any amendments that protect the agencies either. For example, the CIA has been controversial. There's nothing protecting it in the founding documents.

1. The GDP is largely raised due to costs of services, tech innovation, & inflation. Note that the measurement of inflation has been revised several times over the past few decades. Why would we not expect the government to become more efficient due to tech innovation? Should they not get better & more cost efficient with the services they provide? Why is the expectation that the public budget must always grow to match GDP growth?

2. I don't think your numbers are correct. There's also bad accounting & no public source (possibly nobody) knows the true budget. For example, the Dept of Defense hasn't passed an audit. $11 Trillion went missing around the time of 9-11. There's also black budget projects that are top secret. Those projects are substantial & don't factor into the numbers. There's also rampant corruption with contracts. An example is the "Homeless Industrial Complex"...though that may be more of a select state + city government issue. Nonetheless, contracts are heavily padded for incumbent contractors in general across all sectors of the Federal Government.

3. IMO, the black budget projects along with the Dept of Defense should be the first to be audited & cut. The Health Care segments a close 2nd. USAID is a good cut, as it's been a vector for color revolutions & regime change. Looking forward to the IRS going away as well. Since it's founding justification was to support the war effort...And we have had never-ending wars (technically conflicts) since. And the Federal Government simply doesn't provide value to justify it's expenses.

4. I believe the argument is to attract companies. But I otherwise agree with you.

I'm skeptical over the changes that are occurring, but the size & scope of the Federal Government is clearly unsustainable & counter-productive to private commerce...particularly with small businesses. Considering how regulatory agencies are often revolving doors with industry incumbents with the incentive to stifle competition & promote incumbent interests.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#567

Post by zamalek »

cuuupid wrote: post #84

I think impartial observers have not spent time in actual government bureaucracy. Basically everything will seem like “they’re cutting something important!” Or “they’re stopping critical research!” because every government contract needs justification; so naturally they will all sound good. The data and accounting itself is such bad quality in all cases that it is impossible to be perfect at this; there are entire in…

Look, beyond unobjectionable facts that the government wastes money, that money isn't completely wasted: some percentage eventually becomes salaries for Americans (the rest in some rich person's pockets). For example, all the USAID jobs that are now gone.

There are now billions-USD-worth fewer jobs in the American economy.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#568

Post by cryptoegorophy »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #400
sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

> The US population is aging, which means that 36% slice is going to naturally grow. What do you think should be cut, and how? Old people [1], veterans [2], high earners and homeowners [3] turn out to vote. The only demographic we can cut benefits to are the poor. That's what's happening. (Given partisan polarisation, my guess is Democrats will take an axe to veteran benefits next cycle.) > Why shouldn't the health i…

Googles net income in 2024 was 100 billion. How much did they pay in taxes? And why %wise my company pays more. This should be DOGEd on top of what is being doged now.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#570

Post by cuuupid »

whoitwas wrote: post #545
cuuupid wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 5 different existing agencies within the government that all exist for essentially the same purpose -- to track and audit government spending. None of them have been successful in any capacity over the last 20 years. It's easy to just go online and say "this is wrong these people are idiots" but what is your alternative solution? We have exhausted pretty much every other method at this point, all the big co…

Simply audit defense spending. It's the vast majority of government spending and hasn't been auditable in ages.

Defense spending gets audited frequently, the audits just end in failure. This is primarily due to massive lines in their budget that are totally classified, but also they do lose track of resources. Until recently they did not even know how many warfighters they had!

That being said, at the very least basically everything they do moves towards some outcome. Most folks in the military are incredibly mission-driven. Plus, all their big contracts (50M$+) get regular hearings from Congress.

The same cannot be said for civil at all, they have little to no oversight, everyone is buddy-buddy so internal audits often border on fraud, there are many billion dollar contracts that have never gone thru Congressional approval.

If you want to really lose your shit, you should look up how OTA contract vehicles function. Literally just "trust me bro" spending, and for some reason rampant in civil.

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