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DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

nytimes.com

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Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#291

Post by rKarpinski »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

> 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least the 1970s, with the main deviation in the past few years coming from the after-effects of the pandemic? [1]

That might not be the best metric. Sure it's only "~13%" higher than the running average, but in that 55 year period only 4 years (2008, 2020,2021,2022) had a higher spending to GDP ratio than 2024. Also those years all had ZIRP

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#292

Post by noirbot »

e40 wrote: post #257
sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

The reason these questions are not front and center is that the people with money don’t want to talk about them. And, the ensure we are kept busy with cheap gadgets, entertaining tv and movies and enough controversies that don’t matter to last a lifetime. Alsr, the population is less educated and able to actually think critically about these issues than they used to be.

Citation on that last point? The amount of people I know who were the first in their family to attend college, and sometimes even graduate high school, makes me question that people are measurably less educated.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#293

Post by ruraljuror »

timewizard wrote: post #220
ruraljuror wrote: post #210

Keeping Musk’s interests in mind helps clarify what’s going on. Scorching earth and constantly lying is the playbook for dismantling agencies with oversight into the companies he runs and agencies that promote potential growth of competitors (e.g. pulling the ladder up behind him after the DoE’s Tesla loan). The Canada/China tariffs will cripple other automakers who depend on trade while Tesla’s integrated manufactur…

[flagged]

>> and agencies that promote potential growth of competitors > Why are government agencies picking winners and losers at all?

Not sure how you got from my statement about promoting competition to the govt picking winners and losers.

> And no other automaker has ever received a loan from the US government?

My point was that Musk through Doge is trying to make it more difficult for automakers to get loans in the future, after Tesla has already benefitted from them. For some reason you misconstrue my point.

> Where do the batteries come from?

Did a quick search and they are manufactured in plants in China, Nevada and Germany.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#294

Post by largbae »

sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

I think these are good reasons why our fiscal picture is not hopeless, but not good arguments agains improving our efficiency:

1. Thank you for linking that graph, it seems to show that our spending is 25% higher than it was in the 1970s as a % of GDP (23 vs 18). But our level of _debt_ is approx 375% higher (as a % of GDP) than it was in the 70s (120% now vs 32% then). That doesn't sound like we are sustaining it well, and tht interest is compounding as we borrow to pay it.

2. The underlying assumption that makes this argument compelling is that every dollar being spent on these noble categories is being done efficiently. What if fixing healthcare costs cut them in half for the same effect? What if there is fraud to cut in the programs for the elderly? We should tighten these and prepare to pay more as we age.

3. Strongly agree and hope to see some action. It seems that fixing the incentives and inefficiencies of the healthcare system is the core mission of RFK Jr., despite all the vaccine FUD.

4. Strongly agree. I wonder if a VAT would be effective for this.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#295

Post by nwatson »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #204
almosthere wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

500 dollars when you have 10,000 in the bank is equivalent to roughly 200 billion to a governmental budget. The DoED budget last year is about 50 billion , for reference. I hope that puts some of these plans in perspective. Musk's millions is wandering the street for loose pennies. Trumps plan to dismnantle the DoED is "saving" the equivent of paying some energy bill, while the US is going into more debt to pay rent.

For those close to the current executive, killing DoEd ultimately is a cultural quest, not a fiscal one.

Edit: and so are a lot of their other efforts

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#296

Post by bamboozled »

jmward01 wrote: post #203

People aren't voting for what benefits them which means we are now in post policy politics. That means that what matters is the messaging and not the actual things done or the impact of those things on people. This leads to doing things that you have the ability to message the way you want and not doing things that help people. The MAGA crowd figured this out and figured out that angry yelling is the easiest message…

I don’t really see a remedy for this behaviour too. It’s quite horrifying. Like being strapped into a plane heading for the ground.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#297

Post by lordnacho »

noirbot wrote: post #292
e40 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason these questions are not front and center is that the people with money don’t want to talk about them. And, the ensure we are kept busy with cheap gadgets, entertaining tv and movies and enough controversies that don’t matter to last a lifetime. Alsr, the population is less educated and able to actually think critically about these issues than they used to be.

Citation on that last point? The amount of people I know who were the first in their family to attend college, and sometimes even graduate high school, makes me question that people are measurably less educated.

Education + thinking critically and having educational credentials are not the same thing. At least, there needs to be some justification that they are related.

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#298

Post by firejake308 »

qgin wrote: post #277
sxyuan wrote: post #248

For those who want to have a substantive discussion on the federal budget and believe these cuts are justified, I have a few questions (putting aside questions of constitutionality for this thread): 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least th…

Number 3 can’t be overstated. Healthcare costs for the exact same care are 2x-3x what they are in Europe. Global health insurance plans usually come in two flavors: 1. Global coverage 2. Global coverage excluding United States (for half the monthly premium of the first plan) The United States in an extreme outlier in terms of cost. This is separate from rationing care. This is separate from even population health (ex…

I know of at least one source arguing that in fact, population health (mainly obesity and gun violence) explain upwards of 70% of the difference in healthcare spending between the US and other developed nations.[1] To me, this seems like the most likely explanation because I believe we have pretty similar diagnostics and treatments to other developed countries, and I don't feel like a British doctor would give me any treatment that an American doctor wouldn't, and vice versa. As for the other 30%, I think it's probably due to inefficiencies in the insurance-based payment system and our patents lasting too long making drugs more expensive.

[1] https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/why-conventional-wisdom-o...

Re: DOGE's only public ledger is riddled with mistakes

#300

Post by elliotto »

rayiner wrote: post #215
uses wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you’re 100% correct, these aren’t the right people and these aren’t the right methods. Completely the opposite actually.

[flagged]

https://youtu.be/O4xHdUOI7ag?si=RPBNdpAiYHuYe7rf

I would strongly recommend listening to Rory Stewart's commentary in the first half of this podcast about the function and role of USAID as an expression of soft power.

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