The value of short term thinking
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The value of short term thinking
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Re: The value of short term thinking
#2"In technology, long term thinking is impossible, because everything changes so fast, and the pace of change is quickening. The rules are Nobody knows when a sudden shift in technology will open up new markets and business models."
I agree with the idea that a startup's vision is subject to the shifts in technology around it. And for the same reasons that you point out, I agree that it does not make sense for all tech startups to be thinking too far ahead. However, you could also argue that the sudden shifts in technology happen because there are companies whose vision is BIG and executed as planned. Some companies are just more susceptible to technology changes because they're building on platforms that are susceptible to those changes.
But no, I have yet to build a successful company, so who am I to act like I know? :)
Re: The value of short term thinking
#3In technology, long term thinking is impossible, because everything changes so fast, and the pace of change is quickening. The rules are Nobody knows when a sudden shift in technology will open up new markets and business models.
Thinking about self driving cars is certainly long term. We are all excited about the possibility of self driving cars, but it will takes lot of money and engineering brainpower before it become viable in the market. Remember, the first DARPA Grand Challenge was in 2004.
Software startups deal with what is just about possible. They don't try to make quantum computers or launch rockets like SpaceX(Which itself is a startup from 2002).
Re: The value of short term thinking
#4Technology changes, but such changes don't necessarily dictate the product.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#5[deleted]
Re: The value of short term thinking
#6[deleted]
Re: The value of short term thinking
#7I think the real criticism around flipping companies has more to do with the fact that it is (generally speaking) a fake economy. When companies, with no revenue (or more likely - negative revenue) are getting acquired for (up to) a billion dollars, only to be shut down after the founder's stock vests (or sooner)...it makes the whole startup world look a like a Ponzi scheme (as Mark Cuban said, in so many words). Get popular founders, get popular angels/investors, get users, get money. The only person who really gets screwed in that equation is the stockholder of the public company that acquired something it intends to shut down in a few years without recouping any of its investment.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#8I'd say that with careful study you can have a pretty good clue about some of the near future, the difficult bit is knowing when that future is going to occur and in what order. So making long term plans is fine as long as you allow leeway for the dates and have plenty of what-ifs and backup strategies and things to do while you wait for the wave you have guessed is out there.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#9Technology may change quickly, but what doesn't change so quickly are the needs and wants of customers or the rules of economics. Long term viability is still essential for shareholder value – but not necessarily VC value.
But, I digress... Yes, life has changed since 2007, but many of the same fundamental problems still persist.
If I may get on a soap-box that I've borrowed from others wiser and more well-spoken, what have we done with this fast-paced technology boom?
With an exciting few exceptions, most of it has been centered around thinks like "social networking" -- chatting with friends, posting pictures, playing games, reviewing and "checking-in" at various places and things like that. What has this mind-blowing tech revolution really done to enhance the quality of life of the average user? Very little.
And that is a major reason why you don't see long-term viability in business plans – because the products themselves don't solve long-term problems and real needs.
Fix healthcare – heck, fix a part of healthcare. Improve transportation. Improve education; teach people something. Improve the looming water or energy crisis. Encourage more self-sufficency. Make products that get people jobs. Build efficiencies between businesses, between businesses and consumers. Etc, etc. etc. Become essential. Then you'll see long-term business opportunities.
The kicker is that those are all need driven – not technology driven... yet so many people, like the author of this post, are so tech focused they still miss the fact that tech is just the toolset used to deliver value to customers – by meeting their needs.
Re: The value of short term thinking
#10I think the real criticism around flipping companies has more to do with the fact that it is (generally speaking) a fake economy. When companies, with no revenue (or more likely - negative revenue) are getting acquired for (up to) a billion dollars, only to be shut down after the founder's stock vests (or sooner)...it makes the whole startup world look a like a Ponzi scheme (as Mark Cuban said, in so many words). Get…
Presumably the stock holder of said company could sell their stock and move on. Personally if I were an engineer at such a company and saw my company 'wasting' all this money on what are essentially big signing bonuses I might be pretty upset, after all you can't easily sell your 'stock option' until it vests.
That said I wonder if this will correct toward a contract scheme ala national sports, where the 'engineers association' starts negotiating 1 - 5 year deals for 'star' players. It seems it would be more efficient economically.