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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#441
post #19

If what they say is true, then you have to give them credit for catching up incredibly fast. And slightly pulling ahead. Not only with the models, but also products.

And they mentioned at the end of the presentation that they're already planning their next datacenter, which will require 5x the power. Not sure if that means equivalent to ~1,000,000 of the current GPU's, or more because next-gen Nvidia chips are more efficient.

The B300 8-way SXMs will use around 1.4kW for each GPU. I think the TDP on an H100 is like 700W.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#442

Karpathy gave his initial impression: https://x.com/karpathy/status/1891720635363254772 The pull quote is: The impression overall I got here is that this is somewhere around (OpenAI) o1-pro capability

Naive question from a bystander , but since DeepSeek is open source and is on par with o1-pro (is it?), shouldn't we expect that anybody with the computer power is capable to compete with o1-pro?

Deepseek is not on par with o1.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#444
The story about how they made this happen in such a short period is impressive to say the least. Elon’s strength seems to be making things happen.

Getting the largest computer cluster in the world up and running in a matter of months? Unbelievable.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#446

Karpathy gave his initial impression: https://x.com/karpathy/status/1891720635363254772 The pull quote is: The impression overall I got here is that this is somewhere around (OpenAI) o1-pro capability

The impression seems to be warranted: Grok 3 has directly jumpted to the top of all leaderboard categories in Chatbot Arena: https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard In math it shares the top spot with o1 and is just a few points behind (well within errors). In creative writing it is basically ex-aequo with the latest ChatGPT 4o and in coding it's actually significantly ahead of everyone else and represents a new SOTA.

Considering that OpenAI subscription is $200 per month, and "Premium Plus" subscription that includes this thing is only $40 per month, does that mean instantaneous "Elon factor" is now at least -$160 per month per user, or is it supposed to be added up to more than -$240 per month?

How would the math change after factoring in that OpenAI isn't even covering entirety of opex with the sub anyway, and/or people finding associating their money and Twitter accounts to be weird, and/or this thing is supposedly running on a bigger cluster than that for OpenAI?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's already clear that these are going to be commoditized and the free / open source versions will be good enough to capture enough of the value that the remaining players will not be Facebook-level monopolies on the space

the IP rights holders have yet to bare their teeth. I don't think the outcome you suggest is clear at all, in fact I think if anything entirely the opposite is the most probable outcome. I've lost count of the number of technology epochs that at the time were either silently or explicitly dependent on ignoring the warez aspects while being blinded by the possibilities, Internet video, music and film all went through…

>I quite like the idea of a future where the AI job holocaust largely never happened because license costs ate up most of the innovation benefit.

Not quite realistic. You are talking about very huge benefits, in favor of which licenses will be abandoned. And who don't abandoned them... I mean you can look at the Amish settlements.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#448
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seemed to me that he was joking.

He's not joking, and it's not the first time it was announced.

You may be right, he tweeted about it already last year, and seemed to confirm it again yesterday https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1861801046949191686 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891388509191049307

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#450
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Naive question from a bystander , but since DeepSeek is open source and is on par with o1-pro (is it?), shouldn't we expect that anybody with the computer power is capable to compete with o1-pro?

Deepseek is not on par with o1.

Yes it is!
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