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The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

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Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#31

Post by scythmic_waves »

jnwatson wrote: post #15
netbioserror wrote: post #6

Maybe because the products suck and there are very few business models for software? I'm gonna focus on the software product segment, and my evaluation might be flawed, but I think that software is an inherent race to the bottom for three important reasons: 1) Dependence on proprietary software is at best a short-term support boon, and in the majority of cases a crippling liability when the vendor changes support ter…

There are plenty of B2B opportunities where it just doesn't make sense for an open source competitor to emerge. There are plenty of hobbyist programmers willing to work on operating systems. Accounting systems? Way fewer. International export compliance? Zero. There is plenty of opportunity in boring, unsexy niches. We have enough CRMs and Jira clones though.

As someone working in a niche area, I can confirm. It's shocking how little tech adoption there is in my industry. Plenty of low hanging fruit.

However I still sympathize with the parent comment. The niche-industry-exception state of affairs will become less true over time. And then you're left with the same set of incentives (minus dedicated hobbyists).

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#33

Post by wayoverthecloud »

scythmic_waves wrote: post #31
jnwatson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of B2B opportunities where it just doesn't make sense for an open source competitor to emerge. There are plenty of hobbyist programmers willing to work on operating systems. Accounting systems? Way fewer. International export compliance? Zero. There is plenty of opportunity in boring, unsexy niches. We have enough CRMs and Jira clones though.

As someone working in a niche area, I can confirm. It's shocking how little tech adoption there is in my industry. Plenty of low hanging fruit. However I still sympathize with the parent comment. The niche-industry-exception state of affairs will become less true over time. And then you're left with the same set of incentives (minus dedicated hobbyists).

Without going into too much details, could you share some niche areas? And what kind of tech adoption are missing?

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#34

Post by jitl »

jnwatson wrote: post #15
netbioserror wrote: post #6

Maybe because the products suck and there are very few business models for software? I'm gonna focus on the software product segment, and my evaluation might be flawed, but I think that software is an inherent race to the bottom for three important reasons: 1) Dependence on proprietary software is at best a short-term support boon, and in the majority of cases a crippling liability when the vendor changes support ter…

There are plenty of B2B opportunities where it just doesn't make sense for an open source competitor to emerge. There are plenty of hobbyist programmers willing to work on operating systems. Accounting systems? Way fewer. International export compliance? Zero. There is plenty of opportunity in boring, unsexy niches. We have enough CRMs and Jira clones though.

Even with a zillion Jira clones, Jira is doing quite well and growing. Maybe one day some OpenJira clone thing will be dominant but it could be 10-20 years, which is about how long it took Postgres to rise to relevance alongside Oracle

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#35

Post by jitl »

netbioserror wrote: post #6

Maybe because the products suck and there are very few business models for software? I'm gonna focus on the software product segment, and my evaluation might be flawed, but I think that software is an inherent race to the bottom for three important reasons: 1) Dependence on proprietary software is at best a short-term support boon, and in the majority of cases a crippling liability when the vendor changes support ter…

Meh? I think there’s a good amount of 2021 unicorns with poor fundamentals raising on hype and froth over growth numbers but burning cash, but there’s also plenty of 2021 unicorns with good business fundamentals with very long runways. I don’t think any of the figures in the article are an indictment of software as a business model. The unit economics & distribution potential remains very strong. But what’s the point of doing an IPO in a market that’s clearly down on tech? You’d only want to do it for legitimacy or you need the cash and can’t get good terms from private investors. Much better move to chill and wait for the vibes to improve.

Note my perspective is colored by working at 2 SF unicorns that had (Airbnb) / have (Notion) a long duration from founding to IPO or from unicorn to IPO. Airbnb seems to be doing okay, so does Notion… neither business ever went off the deep end burning cash for quick growth numbers to wow speculative investors.

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#36

Post by jitl »

squiffsquiff wrote: post #29
machine_ghost wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Smartphones didn't come from a VC-backed startup. This isn't entirely correct: both Palm and Apple (the creators of the smart phone) were originally venture-backed.

Apple did NOT create the smartphone. When the iPhone released in 2007 it was a feature phone- no app store and famously missing featured like copy and paste. Besides Palm who you have mentioned there was Symbian and Windows Mobile which each had third party after market apps available.

Apple & Android took the smartphone from something that belonged in a businessman’s belt holster to something that lives in the pocket of every person on the planet who can afford it, from niche to ubiquity. For sure they did not invent “phone with store”, but they did create or strongly participate in a complete change of the market that left the earlier players - Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, Nokia, etc buried six feet under.

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#37

Post by trainsarebetter »

taurknaut wrote: post #17
cft wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think that LLMs are not a benefit? Smartphones? Electric cars?

Smartphones at least are absolutely crippled by being locked down by user-hostile app stores and rent schemes. Instead of uplifting us, they've made us angry crackheads. I think the valley is a risk to humanity's survival at this point. LLMs and electric cars simply have zero impact on my life, and I imagine that other people would have had few issues coming up with the latter.

Agree with your first point, but Ev’s are starting to have a impact on local air quality… just because you don’t have one Dosent mean you don’t benefit

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#38

Post by relaxing »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #27
relaxing wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are the product of big auto manufacturers as well.

Yes, but they had to be dragged there by Tesla and BYD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

My recollection is the Leaf and Volt were selling in numbers while the Tesla Roadster was a less practical, low volume novelty.

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#39

Post by toomuchtodo »

relaxing wrote: post #38
toomuchtodo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but they had to be dragged there by Tesla and BYD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

My recollection is the Leaf and Volt were selling in numbers while the Tesla Roadster was a less practical, low volume novelty.

The Leaf and Volt were compliance cars. The Tesla Roadster was “make it work” in “make it work, make it right, make it fast.”

Note Nissan and GM’s EV offerings today, considering how long they had since then.

(early TSLA investor after a ride in the Roadster)

Re: The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

#40

Post by overview »

scythmic_waves wrote: post #31
jnwatson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of B2B opportunities where it just doesn't make sense for an open source competitor to emerge. There are plenty of hobbyist programmers willing to work on operating systems. Accounting systems? Way fewer. International export compliance? Zero. There is plenty of opportunity in boring, unsexy niches. We have enough CRMs and Jira clones though.

As someone working in a niche area, I can confirm. It's shocking how little tech adoption there is in my industry. Plenty of low hanging fruit. However I still sympathize with the parent comment. The niche-industry-exception state of affairs will become less true over time. And then you're left with the same set of incentives (minus dedicated hobbyists).

Please point the way!
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