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Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

toddle.dev

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Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#131

Post by soco »

fakemex wrote: post #130
soco wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been through this cycle as well, but I don't think this works the same way. I mean the only way it would work the same is if AI never reaches its promises, and I don't mean AGI, but never reaches the level of the thinking of a software developer. Then yes, no replacement. But do you really think AI will never get smart enough? Because the second it gets, whoever works on that level flies out the window. A therap…

What do you mean by the AI "reaching a developers level of thinking" and if "it will get smart enough"? Because it doesn't do any thinking it predicts the statistically most likely token depending on the input.

I don't care about either wording. The moment when the form it generates based on the written requirements passes the QA.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#132

Post by AndreasMoeller »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #10

From 2011: "Don’t call yourself a programmer: “Programmer” sounds like “anomalously high-cost peon who types some mumbo-jumbo into some other mumbo-jumbo.” If you call yourself a programmer, someone is already working on a way to get you fired. You know Salesforce, widely perceived among engineers to be a Software as a Services company? Their motto and sales point is “No Software”, which conveys to their actual custo…

I agree with this. I think coder is even worse.

Software engineer or Software developer are much better terms.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#133

Post by AndreasMoeller »

taylodl wrote: post #13

> Your job was never to write code, it is to solve problems for your users. They are why we have a job. You need to talk with the users, empathize with them, understand their problems and feel their pains. This is much too important to be left exclusively in the hands of product managers and designers. You are the problem solver, so you need to fully understand the problem. Adding to this point, LLMs won't fully unde…

Exactly!

Code is just a medium used to build software, the real value comes from analyzing problems and finding solutions.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#134

Post by AndreasMoeller »

eatsyourtacos wrote: post #69
cogman10 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've honestly never had that success. LLMs for me more often get in the way than actually help anything. It may be that it's because I deal mostly in very large code bases with their own nuances.

Counter point though- what if it was trained on your specific code base? Wouldn't it be able to then help with those given nuances? The code base I have I would love to be able to just give some AI free reign and learn the structure since a lot of it is fairly repetitive; I know it would be so easy to say "hey add X just like Y" and it would be able to do it easily.

I think there are types of problems that AI will be great at solving. If you can pass in a whole codebase then we might have LLMs that can suggest refactoring etc to improve code quality.

Code mods like upgrading from python 2 -> 3 could also become possible.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#135

Post by pona-a »

taylodl wrote: post #125
throw-qqqqq wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rare times where I have no good idea what to do, it is faster to code with an LLM. The rest of the time, when I know just what I want, it takes longer for me to formulate it, query the LLM and discuss and validate its output. My more experienced/senior colleagues all say roughly the same. It’s great help for our juniors though. They learn a lot and are more capable on their own with the AI assistance. It’s improv…

> I am developing an evaluation suite so I can keep watching the progress in a systematic way.. Sounds like something that should be published on github

Open benchmarks are vulnerable to saturation. I think benchmarks should have an embargo periodic, until which only 3% of the question-answer pairs is released, with an explicit warning not to use it 3 months after being released.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#136

Post by AndreasMoeller »

taylodl wrote: post #78
ALittleLight wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developer productivity tools are developer replacement tools. If the current paradigm is: principal/senior devs design system, implemented by more junior devs, and LLM tools enable the seniors to produce lots of code, then the juniors are the ones getting replaced. The next step up the stack is enabling the PMs and business people to design (and implement) the system. There is no reason to think LLM based tools are i…

IDK, I've been developing software for 40 years now and have been through several of these "developer replacement" hype cycles. Every single time what ended up happening was even more developers were required. I see this as being the same, at least for the next few years. I do believe that the ultimate end point is quite different - developers will be replaced - but that's several years away and will require major ch…

Yes this is honestly the silliest part of the whole conversation.

I am currently employing 6 software engineers in my company. If from tomorrow they were 10x more productive then I would employ 6 software engineers because that is the budget I have.

Their increased productivity would lead to a faster growth and I would then have budget for more.

If you increase the productivity of software engineers then people will hire more software engineers not fewer.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#137

Post by AndreasMoeller »

dcchambers wrote: post #83

One word: money. They (CEOs and executives, shareholders, etc) don't like how much it costs to make software. They think software engineers make too much money. You (a human) are always a cost they will try to reduce.

Unfortunately I think this is exactly true. It essentially means that many executives are completely incompetent.

You product teams are where your company's value is generated. It is kinda scary to think that so many executives don't understand that.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#138

Post by Apreche »

codr7 wrote: post #99
Apreche wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won’t come begging for help. They _want_ the crash and burn.

Where is the profit?

The less government services, the more dependent people are on having a job to earn money to survive. The less leverage people have to demand higher wages.

It’s the same battle since before the US was even founded. They want slavery, or as close it as they can get.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#139

Post by dasil003 »

CharlieDigital wrote: post #119
dasil003 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this analogy is that the hard part of writing software isn’t about bulk jobs that are easily specified with cut and dried success criteria. It’s about designing and implementing things where many tiny details matter and are connected to real world outcomes in ways that can not be fully deduced from the symbols present in code. If you get these things subtly wrong than programming is net negative beca…

> LLMs in the hands of weak engineers... I think you're still thinking about it wrong. Once you have a hydraulic press that can stamp 600 copies of some die per hour, you are no longer hiring for blacksmiths. You're hiring for someone that knows how to operate the machine safely and maintain it as well as verify the quality of the output. If you have a press that can produce 600 copies of some die and you are hiring…

I'm not "thinking about it wrong", I'm saying that I don't like the analogy. Of course all analogies are imperfect, and I get that LLMs greatly accelerate the production of code, but here's the gap: code is not the product. Code is the instruction for the actual machines, and crucially, code is already repeatable and replicable.

In the software world a blacksmith is analogous someone crunching numbers in a spreadsheet. Programmers (combined with hardware engineers) are the ones that are creating the hydraulic presses. LLMs are analogous to CAD, a better tool-building tool to be sure, but at the end of the day if you're stamping out code in a way that an LLM can do it reliably, then you already have a problem that was automatable without an LLM, which code can already do.

Re: Why is everyone trying to replace Software Engineers?

#140

Post by Capricorn2481 »

skirge wrote: post #129
Capricorn2481 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> have more time to do what they like instead With what money?

Money is only needed for paying taxes. with full automation taxes make no sense - no need to force people to work for government. Basic MMT.

That's a puzzling statement. What makes you think money is only for taxes
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