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Voters were right about the economy

politico.com

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Re: Voters were right about the economy

#11

Post by lapcat »

nuancebydefault wrote: post #6

The statements in the article are as good as impossible to verify, no clear metrics, no formulas, no charts. Also the pretext that 'voters' vote around 'the economy' is hard to qualify nor quantify. What's clear to me is that a lot of voters believed someone who repeats things over and over and promises to 'fix' things with zero evidence to show for. It tells us more about effectiveness of repeating, fear mongering a…

> The statements in the article are as good as impossible to verify, no clear metrics, no formulas, no charts.

The author's bio links to https://www.gene-ludwig.com/ which has a number of whitepapers.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#12

Post by tensor »

This is wildly misleading. You can argue that we should use a different metric, sure, but then you must look at all of history using that metric to compare "the economy now, to the economy before."

The data was not wrong just because you choose to use a new metric. The data would be "wrong" if it was collected in a way that introduced errors.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#13

Post by more_corn »

There are two economies. The one inhabited by wealthy owner class (they own homes, stock, have paid off cars and disposable income) their economy is great.

For everyone else it sucked. The metrics tend to focus on the former and ignore the “outlier data” caused by the latter.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#14

Post by theandrewbailey »

gigatexal wrote: post #4

So be it. But electing Trump to fix the economy is like opting to have the Joker operate on you instead of a competent doctor because you’re sick of incumbent doctors and their shit…

I'd like to point out that 2019 was a very good year for the economy. It worked well the first time, so why not again?

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#15

Post by bdangubic »

nuancebydefault wrote: post #6

The statements in the article are as good as impossible to verify, no clear metrics, no formulas, no charts. Also the pretext that 'voters' vote around 'the economy' is hard to qualify nor quantify. What's clear to me is that a lot of voters believed someone who repeats things over and over and promises to 'fix' things with zero evidence to show for. It tells us more about effectiveness of repeating, fear mongering a…

[flagged]

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#16

Post by kazinator »

tensor wrote: post #12

This is wildly misleading. You can argue that we should use a different metric, sure, but then you must look at all of history using that metric to compare "the economy now, to the economy before." The data was not wrong just because you choose to use a new metric. The data would be "wrong" if it was collected in a way that introduced errors.

Story says that the data gathering is good, but interpretations are flawed and have been consistently so for decades.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#17

Post by lapcat »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #8
jhp123 wrote: post #2

> I don’t believe those who went into this past election taking pride in the unemployment numbers understood that the near-record low unemployment figures — the figure was a mere 4.2 percent in November — counted homeless people doing occasional work as “employed.” But the implications are powerful. If you filter the statistic to include as unemployed people who can’t find anything but part-time work or who make a po…

Yeah, let's call their number U7. It seems like it's U6 + those on a poverty wage. It's a fairly reasonable argument that U6 is a better measure of unemployment than U3. And I'd accept a similar argument for their U7, or the other U7's out there that add people like the discouraged. But I suspect that their U7 is likely at a 20 year low, just like U3 and U6 are. Which would invalidate their argument, in my opinion.

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious:

https://www.lisep.org/team

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#18

Post by JKCalhoun »

bell-cot wrote: post #7

Sounds right. I'm in a major university town in SE Michigan. In recent years, apartment rents rose by ~4X the "official" gov't rate of inflation. Supposedly, the townies and students are diehard Democratic liberals. But especially around campus, voting statistics show Trump getting many more votes last November (and Harris many fewer) than the stereotypes would suggest.

Are you sure the Socialist party candidate didn't siphon off Harris voters?

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#19

Post by [deleted] »

theandrewbailey wrote: post #14
gigatexal wrote: post #4

So be it. But electing Trump to fix the economy is like opting to have the Joker operate on you instead of a competent doctor because you’re sick of incumbent doctors and their shit…

I'd like to point out that 2019 was a very good year for the economy. It worked well the first time, so why not again?

[deleted]

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#20

Post by aweiland »

theandrewbailey wrote: post #14
gigatexal wrote: post #4

So be it. But electing Trump to fix the economy is like opting to have the Joker operate on you instead of a competent doctor because you’re sick of incumbent doctors and their shit…

I'd like to point out that 2019 was a very good year for the economy. It worked well the first time, so why not again?

2019 things started slowing down followed by a brief pre-lock down recession in 2020. I don't think things were as good as you remember.
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