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The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

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Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#431

Post by digitalscribe »

specialist wrote: post #422
digitalscribe wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone else not live off of propaganda here? The Chinese civil war started in the 1900s, many many decades ago, not yesterday. Every single last PRC leader has had a goal for reunification of China, including Mao, Deng, Xi, Hu, etc, etc. Every last one of them. The civil war didnt start yesterday.

Nope. Thanks for the clarification. Next time I'll write "Xi, like every CCP leader before him, is wholly committed to retaking Taiwan."

It's important to understand what "reunification" means. The PRC is seeking "peaceful development" [1] towards the goal of reunification. To this end, the mainland encourages exchange, including investments and workers from Taiwan -- something like 1 to 2 million Taiwanese work or live in the mainland [2].

"Reunification" DOES NOT mean the absolutely idiotic policy that US "think tankers" imagine of the PRC scheming to invade the island as soon as military might exists. We have idiots in year 2000 writing drivel like "Jiang Zemin’s desire to make reunification his legacy indicate that Taiwan will be attacked soon" [3]. Hint: no such attack took place because this mindset exists nowhere but in the minds of the retarded think-tankers.

Secession of Taiwan is absolutely a red line, but outside of a move towards secession, the peaceful development will continue.

1: "actively promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations" - http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/SpecialReports/2024/Celebratingth...

2: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/opinion/international-wor...

3: https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2000/03/how-china-will-t...

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#432

Post by digitalscribe »

vaccineai wrote: post #330
suraci wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China reunifies Taiwan: 100% US responds militarily: not likely but possible

China reunifies Taiwan: 20% 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile syst…

Sorry, but most of this is uninformed gibberish. The PRC and its army (the PLA) have experienced nothing short of a breathtaking modernization for both the country and military.

Most of the points raise are simply wrong.

> 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years

China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which spends at least 2x more.

> 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine.

China is one of the largest oil producers in its own right. It extracts around 4 million barrels a day. The rest is imported, but primarily used for cars -- China's industry and rail networks do not rely primarily on oil. Due to China's transition to electric vehicles, they may have hit peak imports of oil.

During the US Gulf War, even with the tyranny of distance, the DoD used about 400k barrels a day: "Even during the peak of US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and “normal” training activities and force movements, the Defense Department’s daily average fuel use was nearly four hundred thousand barrels per day—an amount equal to slightly more than 10 percent of China’s domestic crude-oil output.38" [1]

China produces about 4 MILLION barrels a day, which is 10x 400k barrels. Also, China would be fighting on the front door step.

3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan.

China has MULTIPLE TRILLION dollar funds. Did I say MULTIPLE? [2]

Plus, there's the annual TRILLION dollar trade surplus.

4.) China imports most of its food and oil

China imports a lot, but they are self-sufficiency on a caloric basis. The oil imports are primarily for cars. The country doesn't rely on oil for industry.

5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile systems, homegrown and from US. and once a ship is sunk near the landing, that then prevents other ship from landing, basically piling up ship corpses.

Read the Japanese government's assessment: "China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island, according to a Japanese government analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted last year." [3]

[1] - https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl...

[2] - https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Funds-Communist-Finances-Am...

[3] - https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20...

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#433

Post by vaccineai »

digitalscribe wrote: post #402
vaccineai wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>after a while Taiwan is no longer needed and China can just take it lol, as if amphibious assault against a country that has been preparing invasion for 70 years, as well as a country that is at the forefront of electronics, is that easy. yes, China is building tons of ships. but each ship, which cost a few hundred million each, can be sunk by Taiwan's advanced missile systems, for a few million per missile. Each sh…

> as if amphibious assault against a country that has been preparing invasion for 70 years You might want to update your understanding of the balance of forces in Asia. For example: "China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island, according to a Japanese government analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted last year…

> China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island

you're using this one little quote to signify that China can take Taiwan? get real. that just means some boots will be on the ground, doesn't mean that these boots will make it past the beach. and naval blockade has very little chance of succeeding past a few days, when China will immediately be sanctioned by all the countries, leading to its collapse

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#434

Post by vaccineai »

digitalscribe wrote: post #432
vaccineai wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China reunifies Taiwan: 20% 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile syst…

Sorry, but most of this is uninformed gibberish. The PRC and its army (the PLA) have experienced nothing short of a breathtaking modernization for both the country and military. Most of the points raise are simply wrong. > 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which s…

> China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which spends at least 2x more.

There's no evidence that China can wage a real war against Taiwan, much less near peer, despite having the units on paper, due to the corruptions. Russia has shown that because of military corruption, it's a paper tiger, much like China. There's a reason Xi Jing Ping is trying desperately to purge military leaders right now, but the military complex is fighting back.

> China produces about 4 MILLION barrels a day

which is for its own economy to function. A large naval plus army force would need significantly more oil to supply all the diesel ships, which each diesel ship require several thousand gallons of fuel per day. Unless you're saying China is willing to let its economy collapse in order to attack Taiwan, which is hilarious.

> China has MULTIPLE TRILLION dollar funds

This shows exactly that you have no idea what you're talking about. Everyone knows right now that China is dead broke and its local government is dead broke. The economy is suffering from deflation because its people have no money to spend.

> China imports a lot, but they are self-sufficiency on a caloric basis

Also you have no idea what you're talking about. When a country imports 80% of its food, it is NOT self sufficient

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#435

Post by ethbr1 »

throw0101c wrote: post #338
ethbr1 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My theory is that Trump is playing the Nixon madman strategy w/ regards to trade. If everyone thinks he's crazy, he thinks he'll get better deals without having to do anything painful. And for optics purposes, all he needs is "some win", not something that materially matters. But as with all Trumpisms, we'll see. :\ I bring up Canada and Mexico because using their shipyard capacity (especially Mexico) would be a win-…

> My theory is that Trump is playing the Nixon madman strategy w/ regards to trade. If everyone thinks he's crazy, he thinks he'll get better deals without having to do anything painful. Have you tried listening to his speeches at rallies? Not the clips or extracts, and not transcripts, but the full speeches from start to finish. Dude is all over the place. It's often hard to tell what planet he's on. During one of t…

I have and watched that full debate. It's weird though, because "he's crazy" seems overly reductionist.

Or at least, he's crazy in the same way George W Bush was dumb.

Which is to say, it's a facade they play because they find it works with their base and to their advantage.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#436

Post by ethbr1 »

digitalscribe wrote: post #411
ethbr1 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo. The terrifying thing about China's shipbuilding and armament focusing is "Why would they be building these specific things if they weren't planning on invading Taiwan?" The focus on amphibious capability doesn't have a lot of dual purpose use...

> Why would they be building these specific things if they weren't planning on invading Taiwan? It's basic, obvious, and rational defense policy. Everyone does it. Why does the US have thousands and thousands of nukes? It's to ensure the destruction of any adversary in case of nuclear war. The US isnt the only country that's entitled to an arms stockpile.

There's a difference between building nukes vs. building amphibious assault ships and transports.

The former aren't much use if you want to invade an island. The latter are.

https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/china-building-monster-barges-...

Pretending like Chinese needs to stockpile amphibious assault capabilities for defensive purposes is sticking your head in the sand.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#437

Post by digitalscribe »

vaccineai wrote: post #434
digitalscribe wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but most of this is uninformed gibberish. The PRC and its army (the PLA) have experienced nothing short of a breathtaking modernization for both the country and military. Most of the points raise are simply wrong. > 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which s…

> China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which spends at least 2x more. There's no evidence that China can wage a real war against Taiwan, much less near peer, despite having the units on paper, due to the corruptions. Russia has shown that because of military corruption, it's a paper tiger, much like China. There's a reason Xi Jing Ping is trying despe…

Carefully re-read my comments. AND read the links I provided. It will be a good educational experience.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#438

Post by digitalscribe »

ethbr1 wrote: post #436
digitalscribe wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would they be building these specific things if they weren't planning on invading Taiwan? It's basic, obvious, and rational defense policy. Everyone does it. Why does the US have thousands and thousands of nukes? It's to ensure the destruction of any adversary in case of nuclear war. The US isnt the only country that's entitled to an arms stockpile.

There's a difference between building nukes vs. building amphibious assault ships and transports. The former aren't much use if you want to invade an island. The latter are. https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/china-building-monster-barges-... Pretending like Chinese needs to stockpile amphibious assault capabilities for defensive purposes is sticking your head in the sand.

> There's a difference between building nukes vs. building amphibious assault ships and transports.

Nukes have essentially zero "defense" purposes. Yet all the great powers have them. It's called "good defense policy." All great powers do this.

> Pretending like Chinese needs to stockpile amphibious assault capabilities for defensive purposes is sticking your head in the sand.

Pretending that building out a military = instant invasion is paranoia.

Take a look at the USA military posture, including in Asia. See what forces are available.

So this means the USA is prepared to invade China any minute now? Plus nuke China, Russia because of the nukes?

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#439

Post by digitalscribe »

vaccineai wrote: post #433
digitalscribe wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as if amphibious assault against a country that has been preparing invasion for 70 years You might want to update your understanding of the balance of forces in Asia. For example: "China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island, according to a Japanese government analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted last year…

> China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island you're using this one little quote to signify that China can take Taiwan? get real. that just means some boots will be on the ground, doesn't mean that these boots will make it past the beach. and naval blockade has very little chance of succeeding past a few days, when Chin…

Boots on the ground is basically the end game. Taiwan has no ability to overcome boots on the ground. They don't even take their defense seriously -- they haven't updated their defense doctrine (e.g., annual Han Kuang) for decades now.

> get real.

Hmm, who is more credible, the literal government of Japan or some rando.

This shift in the balance of power has been on-going for well over 10 years now. I've been following this for many years, so it's jarring to read very un-informed opinions on the balance of power in WESPAC, especially as it relates to PRC and Taiwan.

Read the many warnings from the various heads of INDOPACOM: China’s Sea Control Is a Done Deal, ‘Short of War With the U.S.’ [1]

OR

"Indeed, the overall balance of conventional military power along China’s borders has shifted dramatically in China’s favor." [2]

By the way, this is against the USA, not just Taiwan, which has a joke of a military.

> China will immediately be sanctioned by all the countries, leading to its collapse

LOL at this absurdly ignorant take.

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/20/world/asia/south-china-se...

[2] - https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Articl...

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#440

Post by bluGill »

suraci wrote: post #428
bluGill wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that doesn't stop various dictators from making war.

most wars after ww2 were made by…?

Terrorists in africa from what I can tell. But againts a dictator who I also would not support.

you don't hear of them though.

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