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Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

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Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#21

Post by scarface_74 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19
scarface_74 wrote: post #14

Students in school even post ChatGPT let alone better “AI” will find their growth limited. They will never learn how to solve complex math or logic problems or how to write. You will also see long term affects in the industry as the pre-AI generation leaves the market. It was already hard for entry level developers to break the can’t get a job don’t have experience cycle. It is even harder now. Before there was alway…

More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking to ChatGPT. The outcome of that will not be good, especially with the current mismatch between what ChatGPT actually is and what the public think it is. People will put too much trust in it, and it will ruin lives. Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

> Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

How many phone numbers do you know in your head versus when you were younger? I know three phone numbers from memory - my wife’s, my mom’s (she has had the same phone number since I was born) and an aunt that lives at my grandparents house since they passed and she has the same phone number.

When you go to a new city, do you try to find your way around like you use to or do you use GPS?

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#22

Post by hiAndrewQuinn »

anon2549 wrote: post #17
_cjse wrote: post #9

Well the most pressing question is whether it will kill us all. There are good reasons to suspect that; Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014) remains my favorite introduction to this thorny problem, especially the chapter called "Is the Default Outcome Doom?" Whether LLMs are sufficient for artificial superintelligence (ASI) is of course also an open question; I'm actually inclined to sa…

Its not going to kill us all, it's only going to make us all very unhappy.

Prove it! Dr. Bostrom would be very happy to be wrong, to say nothing of myself.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#23

Post by anon2549 »

hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #22
anon2549 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not going to kill us all, it's only going to make us all very unhappy.

Prove it! Dr. Bostrom would be very happy to be wrong, to say nothing of myself.

I can no more prove my speculation than Dr. Bostrum can prove his, and have no more need to do so than he does. All any of us can do on this topic is speculate. We'll only know for certain what's going to happen when it happens.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#24

Post by satvikpendem »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19
scarface_74 wrote: post #14

Students in school even post ChatGPT let alone better “AI” will find their growth limited. They will never learn how to solve complex math or logic problems or how to write. You will also see long term affects in the industry as the pre-AI generation leaves the market. It was already hard for entry level developers to break the can’t get a job don’t have experience cycle. It is even harder now. Before there was alway…

More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking to ChatGPT. The outcome of that will not be good, especially with the current mismatch between what ChatGPT actually is and what the public think it is. People will put too much trust in it, and it will ruin lives. Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

Socrates: I heard, then, that at Naucratis, in Egypt, was one of the ancient gods of that country, the one whose sacred bird is called the ibis, and the name of the god himself was Theuth. He it was who invented numbers and arithmetic and geometry and astronomy, also draughts and dice, and, most important of all, letters.

Now the king of all Egypt at that time was the god Thamus, who lived in the great city of the upper region, which the Greeks call the Egyptian Thebes, and they call the god himself Ammon. To him came Theuth to show his inventions, saying that they ought to be imparted to the other Egyptians. But Thamus asked what use there was in each, and as Theuth enumerated their uses, expressed praise or blame, according as he approved or disapproved.

"The story goes that Thamus said many things to Theuth in praise or blame of the various arts, which it would take too long to repeat; but when they came to the letters, "This invention, O king," said Theuth, "will make the Egyptians wiser and will improve their memories; for it is an elixir of memory and wisdom that I have discovered." But Thamus replied, "Most ingenious Theuth, one man has the ability to beget arts, but the ability to judge of their usefulness or harmfulness to their users belongs to another; and now you, who are the father of letters, have been led by your affection to ascribe to them a power the opposite of that which they really possess.

"For this invention will produce forgetfulness in the minds of those who learn to use it, because they will not practice their memory. Their trust in writing, produced by external characters which are no part of themselves, will discourage the use of their own memory within them. You have invented an elixir not of memory, but of reminding; and you offer your pupils the appearance of wisdom, not true wisdom, for they will read many things without instruction and will therefore seem to know many things, when they are for the most part ignorant and hard to get along with, since they are not wise, but only appear wise."

- Plato's dialogue Phaedrus 14, 274c-275b

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#25

Post by huevosabio »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19
scarface_74 wrote: post #14

Students in school even post ChatGPT let alone better “AI” will find their growth limited. They will never learn how to solve complex math or logic problems or how to write. You will also see long term affects in the industry as the pre-AI generation leaves the market. It was already hard for entry level developers to break the can’t get a job don’t have experience cycle. It is even harder now. Before there was alway…

More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking to ChatGPT. The outcome of that will not be good, especially with the current mismatch between what ChatGPT actually is and what the public think it is. People will put too much trust in it, and it will ruin lives. Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

> More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking

Absolutely. I find myself sometimes being tempted to just ask Claude for the most vanal things. It's going to get more and more tempting.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#26

Post by mikewarot »

I strongly suspect that after a few false steps, which always happen when people fall for the hype, AI will just be a labor saving device, like power tools, etc. Certain categories of work won't be necessary any more, just like we don't have file clerks in the age of databases, but other new jobs will fill their places.

The general level of productivity will rise, and most of the benefits of that increase won't be seen by the workers. 8(

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#27

Post by AnimalMuppet »

satvikpendem wrote: post #24
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking to ChatGPT. The outcome of that will not be good, especially with the current mismatch between what ChatGPT actually is and what the public think it is. People will put too much trust in it, and it will ruin lives. Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

Socrates: I heard, then, that at Naucratis, in Egypt, was one of the ancient gods of that country, the one whose sacred bird is called the ibis, and the name of the god himself was Theuth. He it was who invented numbers and arithmetic and geometry and astronomy, also draughts and dice, and, most important of all, letters. Now the king of all Egypt at that time was the god Thamus, who lived in the great city of the up…

Well, you know, that's just, like, Plato's opinion, man. (Or maybe Socrates's.)

Plato's opinion, that we accurately know what it was 2300 years later, because he wrote it down for us.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#29

Post by nicbou »

JCJC777 wrote: post #28

will it lead to an increase in human fertility? less/no work pressure, more free time, more financial security

I feel like it's the opposite. These labour-saving technologies are used to concentrate wealth and make workers' lives more precarious.
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