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Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

theguardian.com

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Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#61
post #33

I really thought the major "rust belt" cities were going to blow up after the big COVID WFH push. Why spend 2-10x as much to live in one of four coastal metros when you could get the same pay while living somewhere much cheaper. The biggest issue with these cities in the last 50 years has been a lack of high paying jobs and WFH tech jobs essentially negate that issue. There are a ton of American cities that have fall…

The sun belt took wind out of their sails. And even they are starting to see softening demand. Miami just cancelled an A-class commercial high rise due to weak demand. In Austin, rents are tanking. It’s very hard to revive a town or city when the tax base is way down. I thought Detroit was going to succeed but they simply have too much ground to manage with their revenue. And there isn’t a way to shrink a shrinking c…

>It’s very hard to revive a town or city when the tax base is way down. I thought Detroit was going to succeed but they simply have too much ground to manage with their revenue. And there isn’t a way to shrink a shrinking city.

That's one way to look at it. The problems of decades of urban decay make these places unattractive to outsiders, so it's a catch-22.

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#62

I really thought the major "rust belt" cities were going to blow up after the big COVID WFH push. Why spend 2-10x as much to live in one of four coastal metros when you could get the same pay while living somewhere much cheaper. The biggest issue with these cities in the last 50 years has been a lack of high paying jobs and WFH tech jobs essentially negate that issue. There are a ton of American cities that have fall…

> Why spend 2-10x as much to live in one of four coastal metros

I think you answered your own question: it’s not (entirely) an economic decision. Weather, culture, nature, civic amenities. There’s a lot in life that money can’t buy. Sure I could own a McMansion on a palatial plot of prairie, but what if the square footage of my house and acreage of my yard isn’t what’s important to me?

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#63
I don't get to Detroit much but do live in another rust belt town in Michigan and things do seem to be looking up a bit. There is noticeable investment downtown and property values in the city limits (as opposed to the surrounding white flight townships) are rising for basically the first time in my life (though another way to say this is that housing is becoming less affordable).

There is still a long way to go though, and while I moved back from Austin once my job went remote during COVID, none of the other bourgeois high achievers from my public magnet school have done so -- as you'd expect they are all in NYC, Chicago, LA, Atlanta, etc. Brain drain is a real problem and WFH doesn't really seem to be helping.

I don't think people outside the Midwest understand what a disaster the last ~50 years have been for the industrial heartland. I don't know what the answer is, but even if it's whatever is happening in Detroit, it will be decades before these cities feel anything like whole.

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#64

I really thought the major "rust belt" cities were going to blow up after the big COVID WFH push. Why spend 2-10x as much to live in one of four coastal metros when you could get the same pay while living somewhere much cheaper. The biggest issue with these cities in the last 50 years has been a lack of high paying jobs and WFH tech jobs essentially negate that issue. There are a ton of American cities that have fall…

There's a major issue in American cities that is unmentionable in polite society: the so-called Curley Effect [0], named after a Boston politician who drove the old Boston Brahmins out of their city by taxing them out of town and pandering to Irish immigrants, making the city as a whole poorer. It turns out that politics is not so straightforward as to reward politicians who improve their cities: instead, a politician can leverage group (ethnic, racial, whatever) differences to reward supporters with largesse designed to render them dependent on the politician, while driving out those who, by nature of their independence, could oppose the politician. In effect, there is a substantial likelihood that American cities decay because politicians consolidate power through the kinds of high taxes and poor services that drive away high earners.

WFH workers are very independent: they could move to a city or from it with no regard for the job market. That makes them prime targets for eliminating from a city under the Curley effect.

[0] https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/curley_effe...

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#65
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take the cold over water shortages, wildfires, earthquakes, hurricanes, or excessive heat any day. I wonder if we'll see more people coming to the rust belt as the climate gets worse.

"Just move north" is a common refrain from people who don't understand what climate change means.

Could you expand on this point? Are climate refugees not expected, at least in the short term?

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#66

30 miles West in Ann Arbor, there are tech gigs but not tons of them. If you are apart of the University of Michigan, there are tons of opportunities via the college and the groups there, but if not there aren't tons of openings. Detroit itself is an amazing city, but it isn't a tech hub, nor is it for everyone. It is the shell of the automotive companies that started to move their operations of out the country in th…

I've actually looked at Ann Arbor before as I adore college towns and was looking at trying to find one in the great lakes region as a forever / retirement destination. Given you're from the area would you have any others to recommend? Things I'm mainly looking for: * A climate change refuge * No 'lake effect' snow * Continuing education opportunities (i.e. auditing classes as a retiree) * A good public / uni library…

You might want to look at Kalamazoo.

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#67

I really thought the major "rust belt" cities were going to blow up after the big COVID WFH push. Why spend 2-10x as much to live in one of four coastal metros when you could get the same pay while living somewhere much cheaper. The biggest issue with these cities in the last 50 years has been a lack of high paying jobs and WFH tech jobs essentially negate that issue. There are a ton of American cities that have fall…

Most companies will cut your pay based on where you live, though. You aren’t usually paid the same. That isn’t the norm. Secondly and probably more important is there is zero guarantees that WFH will be supported by the work places they can support it will, we have seen a huge RTO surge. I’d hate to be in one of these cities and get that call. If WFH opportunities had legal protections and incentives it’d be a differ…

Yes, in some cases location-based pay is a thing.

But $150K in Detroit feels a hell of a lot richer than $250K in SF.

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems evident that people, by and large, don’t like freezing temperatures.

NYC, Boston, and Toronto are still bustling. The uncertainty of work from home with RTO mandates popping up at a moments notice keep people from making the jump.

It is better to use nationwide migration statistics over large periods of time rather than selectively choosing a few metros as a data point.

As I understand, it might also simply be biology that older bodies like higher temperatures because it results in less pain.

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#69

30 miles West in Ann Arbor, there are tech gigs but not tons of them. If you are apart of the University of Michigan, there are tons of opportunities via the college and the groups there, but if not there aren't tons of openings. Detroit itself is an amazing city, but it isn't a tech hub, nor is it for everyone. It is the shell of the automotive companies that started to move their operations of out the country in th…

I've actually looked at Ann Arbor before as I adore college towns and was looking at trying to find one in the great lakes region as a forever / retirement destination. Given you're from the area would you have any others to recommend? Things I'm mainly looking for: * A climate change refuge * No 'lake effect' snow * Continuing education opportunities (i.e. auditing classes as a retiree) * A good public / uni library…

I have an alternative proposal to Ann Arbor for this that hits every single one of your criteria, but with a plus-minus (with a caveat, but i will elaborate on that later) regarding reasonable cost of living. That would be Seattle area.

I will go point by point.

The good:

* According to their own Climate Vulnerability Assessment[0], the region is fairly resilient to the impacts of the climate change.

* There is no lake effect snow (despite being adjacent to multiple fantastic lakes). I’ve lived there for 7 years, and the amount of snow was much less than even in places like Atlanta. The amount of rainfall is ridiculously small too (despite the stereotype), and it is usually just drizzle that doesn’t necessitate even an umbrella 99% of the time. It got nothing on typical east coast rains that just pour like hell. I was able to commute to work on motorcycle for about 90-95% days of the year. For any east coast city I’ve been to (ATL/NYC/DC), I don’t foresee that number being even above 50% (most of the time it would be either too cold or too hot or too rainy/snowy/dangerous).

* UW is a very popular and common option for continuing education opportunities. Had friends who would take classes there for fun outside of work, just to fill gaps in whichever topics they were curious about (typically math). Seems like there is a large population that does this, and UW is a great school.

* Public library system is the best I’ve experienced hands down. Free, many accessible locations, and libraries even have stuff like 3d printers and hackerspaces available for anyone’s use.

* Had plenty of friends who lived there with no car for years, and they have zero plans to ever buy one. Especially with the public transit lightrail having some really significant expansions completed recently (with many more nearing the completion; the lightrail to eastside is something i am personally excited for)

The mixed:

* Reasonable cost of leaving is the one plus-minus I mentioned. The minus is that it isn’t cheap. It is much cheaper than Bay Area/NYC/etc., but it is still a major city area. The plus is that there is no state income tax. So, in retirement, your 401k withdrawals would not get any taxes skimmed off on the state level. This point is by far the biggest potential concern I have as far as Seattle being a good suggestion for you.

The bad:

* While the weather is amazing temperature/precipitation-wise year-round, clear skies and sun outside of summer are not that common. Grey skies for more than half of the month during winter eventually got to me.

Bonus points:

* If you are into outdoorsy stuff (skiing/snowboarding/hiking/kayaking/lake stuff), I cannot think of a better area. So many options within just a couple of hours. Hell, Discovery Park (calling it a park feels like a misnomer, because it is a massive cliffside forest, fields, and a beach) is just a 15 min drive from downtown.

* Flying to asian countries is much faster and cheaper than from east coast (13 hour non-stop flight to Japan from NJ vs. a 7-8hr flight from Seattle).

0. https://seattle.gov/documents/departments/opcd/seattleplan/s...

Re: Detroit’s revival takes shape after decades of decay

#70

30 miles West in Ann Arbor, there are tech gigs but not tons of them. If you are apart of the University of Michigan, there are tons of opportunities via the college and the groups there, but if not there aren't tons of openings. Detroit itself is an amazing city, but it isn't a tech hub, nor is it for everyone. It is the shell of the automotive companies that started to move their operations of out the country in th…

I've actually looked at Ann Arbor before as I adore college towns and was looking at trying to find one in the great lakes region as a forever / retirement destination. Given you're from the area would you have any others to recommend? Things I'm mainly looking for: * A climate change refuge * No 'lake effect' snow * Continuing education opportunities (i.e. auditing classes as a retiree) * A good public / uni library…

Grand Rapids and Traverse City might meet your criteria, but it's hard to say given how subjectively they are worded. If you want to live in a town with a large university, then obviously just look at the top three universities by size in each state.
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