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Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

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Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#61

Post by user-id »

mikeash wrote: post #42
betterth wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not fair, both wheels and engines are hardware ;) In all seriousness Apple isn't either. They make better software than any hardware company I know of, and better hardware than any software company I know.

My point is that both wheels and engines are simply components of what Ford actually makes, which is cars. Likewise hardware and software are just components of what Apple actually makes. Totally agree that Apple isn't either, which was exactly my point.

So they're a computer company. Right.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#62

Post by dandelany »

thechut wrote: post #54

What a bunch of fanboys... They missed their estimates and stocks tumbled 6% in after hours trading. That's $33, more than 10 times the dividends they will be paying on that $8B profit.

You say this as if it means Apple has done something wrong, or that they've somehow underperformed. The fact is this: they issued guidance for their profits for this quarter, and beat their own guidance. Third-party analysts issued their own estimates, which were significantly higher, and the market responded to those estimates by overvaluing the stock. When the quarterly results were issued, it turned out that the analysts were wrong, and the market, which had "bought the rumor", promptly corrected to a more realistic valuation. I fail to see how a third party being over-optimistic is Apple's fault.

People tend to assume that when a stock loses a significant amount of value in a short period of time, a company has done something wrong. This is a great example of why this is not the case - speculators wrongly assumed that Apple would be even more ultra-profitable than they actually are, and overvalued the stock. The resulting correction was healthy.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#63

Post by nl »

fallous wrote: post #50
jusben1369 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This caught my eye. 26 million iPhones. Galaxy S III just did 10 million in 6 weeks since launch? That's 20 million in a quarter. Assume the iPhone number is a blended number too between older and latest model. So did we just see the first real example of one phone model legitimately challenge the iPhone? The argument was always that Android success was across so many phones. Now is the breaking down? Please don't fl…

And how much money did the Galaxy S III earn on those 10 million sales vs iPhone? I'm no Apple fanboy, but it always amuses me that the Android boosters talk unit numbers while Apple continues their "BMW" revenues on product. Congrats, you sold 100 Beetles... our sales of 1 BMW generated more profit.

And how much money did the Galaxy S III earn on those 10 million sales vs iPhone?

I'm not sure if you are actually asking for an answer here - it seems you think you already know the answer.

Samsung just had record profit last quarter, prior to the Galaxy 3 launch.

They don't break down per phone profit & margin, but:

Samsung's quarterly handset division profits nearly tripled to 4.27 trillion won ($3.8 billion), accounting for 73 percent of total profit, and operating margins jumped to 18.4 percent from 12 percent in the preceding quarter on strong sales of the Galaxy S and the Note phone/tablet, the surprise consumer hit of recent months.[1]

Now 18.4% profit margin isn't as high as Apple's, but OTOH it includes a lot of low end (and less profitable) phones too.

TL;DR? That thing about Apple making most of the profit in the mobile phone market is no longer true.

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/27/samsung-idUSL3E8FQ...

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#64

Post by btilly »

fallous wrote: post #50
jusben1369 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This caught my eye. 26 million iPhones. Galaxy S III just did 10 million in 6 weeks since launch? That's 20 million in a quarter. Assume the iPhone number is a blended number too between older and latest model. So did we just see the first real example of one phone model legitimately challenge the iPhone? The argument was always that Android success was across so many phones. Now is the breaking down? Please don't fl…

And how much money did the Galaxy S III earn on those 10 million sales vs iPhone? I'm no Apple fanboy, but it always amuses me that the Android boosters talk unit numbers while Apple continues their "BMW" revenues on product. Congrats, you sold 100 Beetles... our sales of 1 BMW generated more profit.

A rule that I learned a long time ago in tech is, "The commodity always wins."

And it seems to work out that way most of the time. If there are two technologies, and one manages to become a commodity that is installed all over, that's the technology that you see innovation coming from and the future coming out of. It is often the worse technology. But it wins.

I don't have a horse in the phone race. But when I see Apple folks talking about profit margins and Android folks talking about units sold, I'd lay my money on Android winning in the long run. It may be a worse market to be in now, it may make a lot less money. But where the users are is where the future tends to be.

This happens for a lot of reasons. Let me give just one. When teenage kids (who don't have a lot of money of their own) get a smart phone, they are going to be given Android devices because it is cheaper. When they play around with those phones and master them, they will be learning Android. Many will stick with Android. Others will learn Android, and their first programming experiences will be with it because that is what they have. And once they grow up they will be worth a lot more than $0, both as customers or developers. But they won't be imprinted on iOS.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#65

Post by AlisdairO »

suprgeek wrote: post #58

Inspite of being the most valuable company on Earth and making an amazing profit by any metric - you still lose value (stock price) if you come in under "analyst" estimates. The relentless march of capital may be increasingly going off the rails.

It makes perfect sense. If you're widely expected to make a lot of money, people will price that into your stock. If you make a lot minus n, you're doing less well than the analysts expected, and so your stock is overvalued.

The failing here is not that the stock price dropped on results that were worse than the market expected, it's that the market expected too much in the first place, causing the stock to become overvalued.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#66

Post by rimantas »

btilly wrote: post #64
fallous wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how much money did the Galaxy S III earn on those 10 million sales vs iPhone? I'm no Apple fanboy, but it always amuses me that the Android boosters talk unit numbers while Apple continues their "BMW" revenues on product. Congrats, you sold 100 Beetles... our sales of 1 BMW generated more profit.

A rule that I learned a long time ago in tech is, "The commodity always wins." And it seems to work out that way most of the time. If there are two technologies, and one manages to become a commodity that is installed all over, that's the technology that you see innovation coming from and the future coming out of. It is often the worse technology. But it wins. I don't have a horse in the phone race. But when I see Ap…

Please, everyone, when talking about "wins"—do specify, what is won. In this case—the race to the bottom?

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#67

Post by astrodust »

hristov wrote: post #28
jpxxx wrote: post #14

TL;DR: Exceeded guidance, no blowout. Mac sales are static, overall iPhone sales softening as the lineup ages, iPads surging, iPod continues to dwindle, miscellaneous sales remain miscellaneous. + stock buyback next year + dividends being issued as expected + China sales exploding So: a quiet quarter. New Mac OS released tomorrow. Yay!

You forgot another one -- estimates missed.

They missed their whisper number, not their guidance.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#68

Post by 2muchcoffeeman »

btilly wrote: post #64
fallous wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how much money did the Galaxy S III earn on those 10 million sales vs iPhone? I'm no Apple fanboy, but it always amuses me that the Android boosters talk unit numbers while Apple continues their "BMW" revenues on product. Congrats, you sold 100 Beetles... our sales of 1 BMW generated more profit.

A rule that I learned a long time ago in tech is, "The commodity always wins." And it seems to work out that way most of the time. If there are two technologies, and one manages to become a commodity that is installed all over, that's the technology that you see innovation coming from and the future coming out of. It is often the worse technology. But it wins. I don't have a horse in the phone race. But when I see Ap…

This assumes that Apple learned nothing from the success of the iPod.

If you look at Apple's product line up right now, they are slowly but surely back filling their product line up just like the iPod. Look how that turned out for everyone else.

It's too early to bet on either platform in the long term.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#69

Post by astrodust »

polycom wrote: post #59
thechut wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Apple said its earnings per share were $9.32 on revenue of $35 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson One Analytics predicted earnings per share of $10.36 on revenue of $37.19 billion." Via http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_21147940/apples-... It doesn't matter how much money you actually make when you are as big as Apple, it matters what you make compared to what people (analysts) think and expect you to mak…

You said "their estimates" which I took to mean Apples own estimates. Isn't it tradition for Apple to beat their own estimates, fail to meet analysts estimates, and having their shares drop for a period of time afterwards? I'm not a trader though so correct me if I'm wrong.

They're usually pretty good about their own estimates, but they don't manage "expectations" very well. By way of contrast, Microsoft seems to do this much better, leading to fewer surprises.

These analysts have their heads up their asses, though, as that's the only place you could get numbers like this.

Re: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

#70

Post by btilly »

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #68
btilly wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rule that I learned a long time ago in tech is, "The commodity always wins." And it seems to work out that way most of the time. If there are two technologies, and one manages to become a commodity that is installed all over, that's the technology that you see innovation coming from and the future coming out of. It is often the worse technology. But it wins. I don't have a horse in the phone race. But when I see Ap…

This assumes that Apple learned nothing from the success of the iPod. If you look at Apple's product line up right now, they are slowly but surely back filling their product line up just like the iPod. Look how that turned out for everyone else. It's too early to bet on either platform in the long term.

Read item #5 in http://www.paulgraham.com/ambitious.html and you'll find out that the best inside information that Paul Graham could get says that Apple has what Steve Jobs left in its pipeline, and nothing else big coming.

This tells me that the trend you are hoping for in Apple's product line should not be counted on.

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