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Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

reuters.com

131–138 of 138 posts

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#131
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about this. In self driving world it no longer makes sense for a car to look like they do now. Instead I think they operate a bit like Coach and Horses used to. You the consumer own the "coach", you have it specced out how you want it, your choice of seating (hell even a bed?), your sound system, your big screen tv, whatever you want because you're a passenger not the driver. The "horses" are the s…

Ooh interesting vision! Are any companies pursuing this avenue?

BYD is doing something related in China. They've got a fairly popular battery swapping service that can swap in and out batteries of different sizes.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of revenue - but less so in terms of costs. I wouldn't be surprised if WayMo is losing Additionally - the majority of those losses could come from expansion efforts. I wouldn't be surprised if WayMo already has profitable unit economics.

I would be astonished if Waymo has profitable unit economics. They're probably closer to spending $10 for every $1 they make. I made my initial fortune working on self-driving cars and there are many reasons the revolution that was supposed to come 10 years ago has yet to arrive.

Maybe you're misunderstanding unit economics.

It sounds like you're talking about net losses for the company.

You think it costs them $500 to operate a $50 ride?

How? And why?

Unit economics does not include the previous r&d to map the city and train the model to drive the car.

It's literally the cost of the car going from point a to point b - and amortizing other operational costs like maintenance and cleaning.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be astonished if Waymo has profitable unit economics. They're probably closer to spending $10 for every $1 they make. I made my initial fortune working on self-driving cars and there are many reasons the revolution that was supposed to come 10 years ago has yet to arrive.

Maybe you're misunderstanding unit economics. It sounds like you're talking about net losses for the company. You think it costs them $500 to operate a $50 ride? How? And why? Unit economics does not include the previous r&d to map the city and train the model to drive the car. It's literally the cost of the car going from point a to point b - and amortizing other operational costs like maintenance and cleaning.

I'm not talking about net loss, I'm talking about operating costs.

The maps they make for self-driving cars are made constantly - it's not something they make every year. They're updated weekly, if not daily - and they use a separate much more expensive car to do it. There's a whole separate team just for dealing with this. The amount of data the taxis collect is insane. Terabytes of data per car per hour, which needs to be stored and processed and transported (the data is so much it often makes more sense to physically ship hard drives than to send it over the internet). The "phone home" team is paid employees, and in order to have cellular service to the cars the companies pay a much more expensive plan with cellular providers than you're used to with your cellphone. The engineers who are maintaining the software and making fixes cost money. The people that clean and maintain the cars cost money. Not to mention the wear and tear on the vehicle (which includes the extremely expensive sensor suite) and the electricity to move the vehicle.

I am saying the unit economics, which has nothing to do with the previously spent billions of dollars or efforts of expansion, is currently dogshit for self-driving cars. Theoretically it will improve with scale, but Waymo isn't at scale yet. I think people that haven't worked in robotics have this notion that robots are wildly profitable but this is a common fallacy. Robots almost always lose money, and usually a shitload.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you're misunderstanding unit economics. It sounds like you're talking about net losses for the company. You think it costs them $500 to operate a $50 ride? How? And why? Unit economics does not include the previous r&d to map the city and train the model to drive the car. It's literally the cost of the car going from point a to point b - and amortizing other operational costs like maintenance and cleaning.

I'm not talking about net loss, I'm talking about operating costs. The maps they make for self-driving cars are made constantly - it's not something they make every year. They're updated weekly, if not daily - and they use a separate much more expensive car to do it. There's a whole separate team just for dealing with this. The amount of data the taxis collect is insane. Terabytes of data per car per hour, which need…

> Robots almost always lose money, and usually a shitload.

That can be true, but they still can (and should be) profitable in unit economics.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#135
post #64
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think the trips are slower than a human? I've only taken one Waymo trip (and my wife two) but in each case it didn't feel any slower than a Lyft. But it felt a lot safer! They definitely drive better than any human Lyft driver I've ever had. And the prices seems to roughly match Uber/Lyft. Sometimes they're higher sometimes lower. The one ride I took I chose the more expensive Waymo just for the better exp…

I should first note that I'm a big fan of waymo and want autonomous to succeed generally. I take both waymo's and lyft/uber all the time in sf and waymo's are way slower. I'd estimate it at 10-15% slower. Once the novelty of a waymo wears off you realize that they drive like a high anxiety teenager and going 15 mph on a 15 mph road, coming to gentle full stop at every stop sign, and being very tentative on turns and…

Having more people drive like Waymo would likely result in faster travel times for all. It’s a well studied phenomenon. In cities the intersections are a bottleneck and driving at slower average speed often means stopping less often.

Also, don’t you think it’s weird that you complain that the car goes 15 on a road with speed limit equal to 15?

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#136
post #85
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly don't understand the appeal of a private self-driving vehicle as opposed to a taxi-style rental service. I like that Waymo has human backup! Knowing that if the car gets into a tricky situation there's someone who can remote control it back out again is very reassuring. I also like not having to think about where it parks, what it's doing when I'm not in it etc.

I would love to have one! Imagine all the benefits you just listed, but it's just mine so I can keep my stuff in it. Maybe my car seat or my work equipment or my shopping bags. I get where I'm going and I send it over the the parking garage a mile away that's cheap, and then summon it back when I'm done with my event, so I never have to circle for parking. If enough people to it, they would probably develop a protoco…

Careful what you wish for. Cities that don’t fight back such a mass influx of self-driving cars running errands for everyone would become absolutely non-livable.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about net loss, I'm talking about operating costs. The maps they make for self-driving cars are made constantly - it's not something they make every year. They're updated weekly, if not daily - and they use a separate much more expensive car to do it. There's a whole separate team just for dealing with this. The amount of data the taxis collect is insane. Terabytes of data per car per hour, which need…

> Robots almost always lose money, and usually a shitload. That can be true, but they still can (and should be) profitable in unit economics.

Robots can be profitable, but they almost never are. I'm telling you this with over a decade of experience of watching companies, some of which have multibillion dollar market caps, lose money on robots.

Do you have any experience (or preferably data) to suggest otherwise?

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the general public has believed that self driving would arrive as some big bang moment where it just "worked" in 95%+ of environments where people drive. One morning there'd be an announcement it was cracked and then in six months you'd be able to buy a new car with it. I don't think from either a business, technical or legal perspective google ever wants to sell or license their tech directly to a car being…

This doesn't align with what they've said publicly. The intent is to eventually make this technology available to own: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s

I think you mean their stated intent is to eventually make this technology available to own (I haven’t watched the video you linked but I’m going to charitably assume they say what you’re asserting).

I, and many others, are past the point of trusting their words.

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