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Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

reuters.com

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Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#41

Post by Rodeoclash »

dageshi wrote: post #33
kart23 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.

I'm pretty certain they won't undercut Uber or other taxi services any time soon because they don't want to provoke the political headache that comes with it. That type of politics could shutdown their licenses, I'm sure they want to avoid that at all costs so they're pricing above existing services. What they may do is refuse to raise prices and eventually inflation will make them the cheapest.

They can charge more in Melbourne and I'll happily pay it to avoid drivers that cancel the trip after accepting or accept the trip and drive away from me until I cancel.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#42

Post by AlotOfReading »

spankalee wrote: post #4
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

"In addition to ongoing trips to Truckee, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Upstate New York and Tokyo, the expansion includes testing in San Diego and Las Vegas, with more cities yet to be announced." Pitching my own book here, but I think Jackson Hole would be a great place for Waymo. It's clearly delineated, has basically no freeway driving, affluent residents and a constant influx of tourists for brand building. The on…

I imagine they'll need a ton of testing and adjustments for driving in snow for all the conditions the car needs to detect and plan around, like the wheels slipping, or the car as a whole sliding down a hill. This is probably a separate effort from mapping out a city, but then needs to be tested in the real world. I think Truckee and Tahoe offer this environment within reasonable driving distance to the main Waymo de…

Truckee/Tahoe is an extremely popular test area for bay area AV companies. Waymo's been testing there regularly since at least 2017.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#43

Post by sadeshmukh »

_ea1k wrote: post #28

I've been poking at Uber forums and other places, and I'm noticing that a _lot_ of people are underestimating this. Waymo is growing by >100%/year at the moment and this is a significant part of that growth. It'll make a huge dent in demand for Uber/Lyft over the next five years.

Interestingly, they're currently partnering with Uber in Florida if I remember correctly.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#44

Post by microtherion »

jasonpeacock wrote: post #22
wolfram74 wrote: post #7

I wonder if the waymo solution is very vehicle specific or if it could be easily applied to say, a 10~12 person van that could accommodate a wheelchair? It would be interesting to design a transit system around 4~5 times as many vehicles with higher interval or more responsive pathing with something like pick up kiosks.

Many cities are already upgrading their transit systems to implement "rapid ride" where they run buses on a 10min schedule through popular routes. This eliminates the need for planning routes - go the nearest stop, wait 10-15min (sometimes buses get bunched up so it's not really every 10min), and get on the next bus. Buses already have drivers, wheelchair (and bicycle!) support, etc. and the stops usually have live t…

I recently came across an article on the early years of the Zürich streetcar. In the early 1900s, 5 minute schedules were customary, with one especially busy line running a 3 minute schedule!

In contrast, nowadays the peak schedule is 7.5min.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#45

Post by jedberg »

kart23 wrote: post #30
dageshi wrote: post #20

I'm convinced that Waymo will quietly continue to roll out self driving taxi's to ever increasing areas in "beta" until one day they're covering a significant percentage of the most profitable areas to be a taxi in. Instead of trying for universal self driving, they're going to prioritise being self driving taxi's for the most profitable areas.

Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.

Why do you think the trips are slower than a human? I've only taken one Waymo trip (and my wife two) but in each case it didn't feel any slower than a Lyft. But it felt a lot safer! They definitely drive better than any human Lyft driver I've ever had.

And the prices seems to roughly match Uber/Lyft. Sometimes they're higher sometimes lower. The one ride I took I chose the more expensive Waymo just for the better experience. You don't have to worry about what the driver might say or do that makes you uncomfortable or unsafe.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#46

Post by lopkeny12ko »

spjt wrote: post #37
kart23 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.

I would pay more for a slower ride just to avoid having to pay a tip.

You will certainly be happy to learn that Waymo is in fact introducing tipping.

https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#47

Post by jillesvangurp »

_ea1k wrote: post #28

I've been poking at Uber forums and other places, and I'm noticing that a _lot_ of people are underestimating this. Waymo is growing by >100%/year at the moment and this is a significant part of that growth. It'll make a huge dent in demand for Uber/Lyft over the next five years.

Unless those companies stumble on competing solutions that they can use to level the playing field. Waymo doesn't have this market to itself in perpetuity. Uber and Lyft basically have lots of revenue and can afford to take some bets on experimenting with different partners for self driving at a relatively low risk.

There are plenty of other companies experimenting with self driving taxis, cars, trucks, etc. And not just in the US. China is probably a lot further than Waymo on this front. In the end it boils down to cost at scale. Waymo has some early learnings for this, which is great, but it's no guarantee that somebody else won't come along and match what they are doing. Or massively improve on what and how they are doing what they are doing.

Tesla is the controversial one to mention in this context but I no longer believe that they'll get there first or exclusively. They might still get there. And maybe it won't even take that long. But they have a lot to prove and there are lots of other companies field testing working taxis with real passengers (unlike Tesla) at this point.

I wouldn't count Uber out. I'd say they are well aware of the challenges here and have a huge stake in ensuring that there will be multiple autonomy providers for them to choose from that all need the same thing to succeed: access to paying customers. Which is something that Uber has. The near future is likely to be mostly non-autonomous with specific geofences running experiments with autonomous driving in a limited number of places. Uber works in all those places and all they need is access to autonomous options in areas as that becomes available. They don't need to own or develop this in house. They just need access and some revenue share deal. More providers means more competitive deals.

I wouldn't be surprised to seem them close multiple, non-exclusive deals on this front in the next years. Possibly even with Waymo or Tesla. Or both. And then some.

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#48

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lopkeny12ko wrote: post #46
spjt wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay more for a slower ride just to avoid having to pay a tip.

You will certainly be happy to learn that Waymo is in fact introducing tipping. https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334

It goes to a charity of the rider's choice [1].

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/28/waymo-is-reportedly-buildi...

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#49

Post by rob74 »

aiauthoritydev wrote: post #35
kart23 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.

Operational profits is not really a goal for Waymo in near term. The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition, getting permits to operate in major profitable cities with profitable routes. The cost of a Waymo car right now is around $150K. Soon, Waymo will build its own cars (with partnership with some car manufacturer) from scratch which will bring this cost to around $40K. currently WayMo has around 2…

> The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition

The problem with this is that one of their competitors (Tesla) now has very powerful friends in the government which are certainly not above using that power in their favor...

Re: Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

#50

Post by dageshi »

rob74 wrote: post #49
aiauthoritydev wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Operational profits is not really a goal for Waymo in near term. The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition, getting permits to operate in major profitable cities with profitable routes. The cost of a Waymo car right now is around $150K. Soon, Waymo will build its own cars (with partnership with some car manufacturer) from scratch which will bring this cost to around $40K. currently WayMo has around 2…

> The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition The problem with this is that one of their competitors (Tesla) now has very powerful friends in the government which are certainly not above using that power in their favor...

This is another reason why I think they will remain low key.

They'll perpetually be in "beta" until they're so ubiquitous that the idea of getting rid of them is unthinkable.

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