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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#61

Post by roenxi »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #59
roenxi wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

1 million Americans died in the first 4 months of the COVID epidemic. That was not normal, nor anywhere close to normal.

You're undercalling it, that would actually be completely normal. About 1 million US citizens die every 4 months (technically the number of American deaths would be quite a bit higher). The anomaly was that there were about 0.7 million surprise deaths over 12 months (some minority of which would have been caused by the COVID response itself, mind)

You can look it up here - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year... - the COVID death rate is going to be a pretty good year in the 2030s. It is a statistically significant blip but ultimately the vast majority of deaths were already locked in. It was always going to be about 3 million people each year.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#63

Post by pella »

2032 Mayan prophecy + 2024 YR4 = prime fuel for internet-born doomsday cults.

"The final katun in the sequence that must happen before the new cycle of the katuns begins again is 13 Ahau. This starts in 2032 and ends in 2052. It is the time from 2032 to 2052, that great earth changes may take place.

The translation from the codices about 13 Ahau that starts in 2032 is ‘Famine, plagues of locusts, and loss of rulers. The judgment of God’ Mr. Scofield goes on to elaborate on this katun.

‘This is a time of total collapse where everything is lost. It is the time of the judgment of God. There will be epidemics and plagues and then famine. Governments will be lost to foreigners and wise men and prophets will be lost.‘

It is my perception that the great crisis that many fear in 2012 may well start after 2032. An interesting note to this time period is that it did bring great revolution and change during the time period from 1776 to 1796."

https://www.tokenrock.com/mayan-astrology/2012-mayan-prophec...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#65

Post by virtualritz »

deadbabe wrote: post #24
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

Why crisis? People should simply not look up.

> Why crisis? People should simply not look up.

I don't understand why this apt pun on that movie is being downvoted.

Would anyone of the downvoters of parent care to explain?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#66

Post by davidmurdoch »

littlestymaar wrote: post #64
davidmurdoch wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Rules For Thee but Not for Me

My comment was illustrative and was intended to mock your insult. If you can't see that I suspect you are either not being genuine, or just generally have trouble with social clues.

In any case, this discussion has devolved too far into bickering and tone policing, so I concede; you're right, I shouldn't have mocked you.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#67

Post by DennisP »

perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

So you're calling it a "crisis" that people will be better informed of the risk they've always faced? Seems to me we should use that media coverage to build political support for a real asteroid defense system.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#68

Post by perihelions »

DennisP wrote: post #67
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

So you're calling it a "crisis" that people will be better informed of the risk they've always faced? Seems to me we should use that media coverage to build political support for a real asteroid defense system.

If the media does not contextualize risks correctly, as it never does, it's absolutely a crisis—a crisis of a poorly-informed, panicked society lashing out and doing irrational things.

It's not a costless error if a warped illusion of risk drives countries to, i.e., deploy nuclear-tipped space weapons for asteroid defense, which then precipitate a genuine crisis. It's not obvious that having more defenses is obviously safer than having less; some thoughtful people have argued the opposite:

>"In our view, development of this asteroid-deflection technology would be premature. Given twentieth-century history and present global politics, it is hard to imagine guarantees against eventual misuse of an asteroid deflection system commensurate with the dangers such a system poses. Those who argue that it would be prudent to prevent catastrophic impacts with annual probabilities of 10^-5 would surely recognize the prudence of preventing more probable catastrophes of comparable magnitude from misuse of potentially apocalyptic technology."

https://sci-hub.se/https://doi.org/10.1038/368501a0 ("Dangers of Asteroid Deflection" (1994), Carl Sagan & Steven Ostro)

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#69

Post by jackcviers3 »

With the size of the asteroid, is this one where we could use the gravity tractor[1] or the Yarovsky Effect[2] techniques for deflection, or is there not enough lead time?

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor 2. http://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021plde.confE.119A/abstrac...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#70

Post by 2-3-7-43-1807 »

roenxi wrote: post #61
bryanlarsen wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 million Americans died in the first 4 months of the COVID epidemic. That was not normal, nor anywhere close to normal.

You're undercalling it, that would actually be completely normal. About 1 million US citizens die every 4 months (technically the number of American deaths would be quite a bit higher). The anomaly was that there were about 0.7 million surprise deaths over 12 months (some minority of which would have been caused by the COVID response itself, mind) You can look it up here - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of…

also many people died due to restricted access to medical services and simply stress from the panic that was spread.
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