Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024) • Hacker News Board

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#21

Post by handfuloflight » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:40 AM UTC

deadbabe wrote: post #14

anothermathbozo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

When everyday people are telling you their opinions about what AI is gonna do you know it’s a fad.

Every day people were doing that with the Internet.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#22

Post by handfuloflight » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:41 AM UTC

SlightlyLeftPad wrote: post #17

jack_pp wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd write a script that crawls all these AI topics and use an LLM to count how many times this conversation has been had but I'm too tired to do so lol. Just don't feed the troll / dumb person. If they're too stupid to see how revolutionary LLMs are by this point.. just let them be stupid. Just downvote and move on with your life

We’ll know when it can park a car in an everyday parking spot without messing up your Grandma’s Camry I suppose.

Oh yeah, let's all wait till then to get the value out of models today.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#23

Post by andrewmcwatters » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:41 AM UTC

Oh! It's "Open"AI because there's no moat! /s

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#24

Post by great_psy » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:43 AM UTC

halfcat wrote: post #20

It’s the year 2000. We have the internet, a technology that will change the world. Yahoo is the most valuable company on earth. Among the coolest things people do is go to CompUSA and pay money for a web browser, Netscape Navigator, because it supports the tag so you can make your geocities page even more awesome. Google is still operating out of a garage somewhere, and won’t be household name until after the bubble…

Before or after the bubble popped ?

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#25

Post by raincole » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:47 AM UTC

deadbabe wrote: post #14

anothermathbozo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

When everyday people are telling you their opinions about what AI is gonna do you know it’s a fad.

Everyday people were talking about iPhone. That was what made iPhone a fad and prevented Apple from being the company with the highest MarketCap.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#26

Post by deadbabe » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:50 AM UTC

raincole wrote: post #25

deadbabe wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When everyday people are telling you their opinions about what AI is gonna do you know it’s a fad.

Everyday people were talking about iPhone. That was what made iPhone a fad and prevented Apple from being the company with the highest MarketCap.

iPhone was a fad. Everyone and their grandmother had an idea for some kind of app. It was all people talked about, apps apps apps.

Then the market blew up and a few big winners ate up all the profit and everyone else died on the long tail.

Today, iPhone exists, but people don’t even think about them much. They just use it.

Pestering someone now about your iPhone app idea is like pestering someone about your website idea back in 2015.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#27

Post by deadbabe » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:51 AM UTC

handfuloflight wrote: post #21

deadbabe wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When everyday people are telling you their opinions about what AI is gonna do you know it’s a fad.

Every day people were doing that with the Internet.

Yea, and then came the dotcom bust.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#28

Post by krainboltgreene » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:51 AM UTC

nextworddev wrote: post #16

Just playing devil's advocate: VCs (esp those who missed out on OAI) are heavily incentivized to root for OAI to fail, and commoditize the biggest COGs item (AI models). This guy is just talking his book.

That doesn't make any sense. A lack of investment is not an investment against by any means, unless this VC invested in the concept of less spam or more workers.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#29

Post by romanovcode » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:52 AM UTC

dralley wrote: post #4

A year ago Sam Altman was going around trying to convince people we all needed to drop 7 trillion dollars to build hundreds of fabs and nuclear power plants to fuel his AI ambitions. Only a week ago he was triumphantly announcing 500 billion dollar deals with our new President. The (regrettably temporary) ousting of Sam Altman looks like the right call, in hindsight. Of course some amount of showmanship is expected,…

The timing with the 500b deal is just perfect

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#30

Post by krainboltgreene » Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 4:52 AM UTC

halfcat wrote: post #20

It’s the year 2000. We have the internet, a technology that will change the world. Yahoo is the most valuable company on earth. Among the coolest things people do is go to CompUSA and pay money for a web browser, Netscape Navigator, because it supports the tag so you can make your geocities page even more awesome. Google is still operating out of a garage somewhere, and won’t be household name until after the bubble…

Everyone thinks their bet is the next Ford, Wright bros, Netscape, etc.