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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#581

Post by Nihilartikel »

I'm not convinced that this is more than the market having a jump-scare at an incremental leap in model building technique.

Say DeepSeek has worked out how to do more with less - that's great! I don't think it means that the market for Nvidia's silicon (or anyone else who can hop the CUDA moat) is going to shrink. I think that the techniques for doing more with less.. will be applied to _more_ hardware, to make even bigger things. AI is in its infancy, and frankly has a long way to go. An efficiency multiplier at this stage of growth isn't going to reduce the capital needed, it will just make it go further. There may be some concern about scaling the amount of training material, but I don't see that as the end of the road at all. After all, a human's mental growth is hardly limited by the amount of available reading material. After all written material is trained upon, the next frontier will just be in some other mimicry of biological metacognition.

At least that's my armchair analysis.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#582

Post by whattheheckheck »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #573
addicted wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are missing is that it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. So earliest, the shovelers were willing to spend thousands of dollars for a single shovel because they were expecting to get much more valuable gold out the other end. But now that it’s only bronze, they can’t spend that much money on their tools anymore to make their venture profitable. A lot of shovelers are gonna drop out of the r…

> it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. The gold is still gold. We just thought it was 10,000 feet down, which requires lots of shovels, when it was actually just under the surface.

Still don't know if it's even gold

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#583

Post by nailer »

yalogin wrote: post #565

Nvidia has gotten lucky repeatedly. The GPUs were great for PC gaming and they were the top dog. The crypto boom was such an unexpected win for them partly because Intel killed off their competition by acquiring it. Then the AI boom is also a direct result of Intel killing off their competition but the acquisition is too far removed to credit it to that event. Unlike the crypto boom though, two factors make me think…

Money isn’t fringe, and the target for crypto is all transactions, rather than the existing model where you pay between two and 3.5% to a card company or other middleman.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#584

Post by ezoe »

I really don't understand the market thinks Nvidia is losing its value.

If DeepSeek reduce the required computational resources, we can pour more computational resources to improve it further. There's nothing bad about more resources.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#585

Post by startupsfail »

Rury wrote: post #563
puppymaster wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also dont get how this is bearish for NVDA. Before this, small to mid companies would give up on finetuning their own model because openai is just so much better and cheaper. Now deepseek SOTA model gives them much better quality baseline model to train on. Wouldn't more people want to RAG on top of deepseek? or some startups accountant would run the numbers and figures we can just inference the shit out of deepsee…

Maybe because the loudest news said it was bearish. Lot's of people let the media do their thinking for them.

GPUs are now 47 times faster, thanks to all the software improvements, so the prices are about to go up, right? Buckle up!

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#586

Post by 01100011 »

yalogin wrote: post #565

Nvidia has gotten lucky repeatedly. The GPUs were great for PC gaming and they were the top dog. The crypto boom was such an unexpected win for them partly because Intel killed off their competition by acquiring it. Then the AI boom is also a direct result of Intel killing off their competition but the acquisition is too far removed to credit it to that event. Unlike the crypto boom though, two factors make me think…

> the models are going to get better/smaller/faster overtime reducing our reliance on the GPU

Yes, because we've seen that with other software. I no longer want a GPU for my computer because I play games from the 90s and the CPU has grown powerful enough to suffice... except that's not the case at all. Software grew in complexity and quality with available compute resources and we have no reason to think "AI" will be any different.

Are you satisfied with today's models and their inaccuracies and hallucinations? Why do you think we will solve those problems without more HW?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#587

Post by [deleted] »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #582
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. The gold is still gold. We just thought it was 10,000 feet down, which requires lots of shovels, when it was actually just under the surface.

Still don't know if it's even gold

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#588

Post by [deleted] »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #582
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. The gold is still gold. We just thought it was 10,000 feet down, which requires lots of shovels, when it was actually just under the surface.

Still don't know if it's even gold

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#589

Post by grogenaut »

uxhacker wrote: post #470
segasaturn wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That still means that that AI firms don't have to buy as many of Nvidia's chips, which is the whole thing that Nvidia's price was predicated on. FB, Google and Microsoft just had their their billions of dollars in Nvidia GPU capex blown out by $5M side-project. Tech firms are probably not going to be as generous shelling out whatever overinflated price Nvidia was asking for as they were a week ago.

It means personal ai on every computer. No privacy concerns, but saying that it is quite weird coming from a Chinese start up :)

It won't last long. Agents are where AI is going to go imho. That means giving the ai software access to the internet, and that means telemetry.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#590

Post by cageface »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

You could even say that overconfidence in abilities and knowledge outside of core expertise is the critical flaw of today's entire tech industry.
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